Trump’s downward trajectory

The worm is beginning to turn on President Trump.

His dishonest blathering notwithstanding, Trump never earned particularly strong support from American voters.

Though he frequently praises himself for winning the popular vote, Trump’s victory was thin by historical standards. Fewer than 50 percent of voters cast their ballots for him while his margin over Vice President Harris was less than 1.5 percentage points.

Only nine presidential elections in our history were won by lesser margins. Nineteen presidential elections yielded true landslide victories of 10 points or more. Trump’s advantage was nowhere close to that.

And he’s still not particularly popular. Using Gallup data, on average, going back to President Eisenhower, presidents earned approval from 60 percent of Americans in their first February. Trump’s February approval rating — 45 percent — is the lowest on record, except for his rating in February of his first term.

More important, the president’s approval rating is deteriorating. Days after his inauguration, the number approving of his performance was 8.5 points higher than those disapproving, according to the RealClearPolitics’ aggregation of all the polling. By Monday, that advantage had narrowed to just 1 point.

538.com, another aggregator using somewhat different methodology, posted nearly identical numbers — an 8.2-point approval margin just after Trump took office, which declined to 7/10ths of a point Monday.

Make no mistake, two things are true at the same time. A narrow plurality approves of Trump’s performance. But that plurality is shrinking as fewer voters approve and more disapprove.

A president’s approval rating is significant because it is one of the most important weapons he wields in political combat. A president’s political power is directly proportional to his approval rating. Members of Congress fear crossing a president with 70 percent approval and fear being seen with a president sporting a 30 percent approval rating.

Trump’s power will diminish less as his numbers fall because he remains extraordinarily popular with Republicans and, for several reasons, Republican legislators mostly don’t worry about general elections, only primaries against fellow Republicans.

Why are Trump’s numbers falling?

Several reasons.

First, his persona is back on daily display. Since he appeared on the presidential stage, voters have been turned off by his demeanor. These days his demeanor makes big, negative news almost daily.

A February YouGov poll found 45 percent disliked Trump personally compared to just 37 percent who liked him. Among political independents, 50 percent disliked him, while just 30 percent liked the president.

Second, one of the strongest findings in public opinion research is that while Americans favor cutting government spending in general, they adamantly oppose cuts in most specific areas. Republicans have moved from the generic to the specific with the GOP supporting massive cuts to education and health care to fund more tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans.

(Of course, the cuts to health care, education and other programs don’t fully fund the tax breaks. While Republicans claim to be deficit hawks, they voted to increase the deficit to fully fund the tax breaks.)

We’ve seen this movie before, and it ends with Republicans in deep political trouble.

According to an AP/NORC poll, some two-thirds of Americans say we are spending too little, not too much, on education, health care and Social Security. As Republicans move to make massive cuts to these programs, ratings for Trump and congressional Republicans, will worsen further, assuming Democrats keep the pressure on and the focus clear.

Third, Trump is ignoring the public’s priorities.

According to a CNN poll, just 40 percent believe Trump has had the right priorities, while 52 percent think he hasn't paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems. By 45 percent to 39 percent, Americans say Trump’s policies will move the country in the wrong direction rather than in the right one — worse than the response for Joe Biden at the beginning of his term.

Voters remain fixated on rising costs, and they see Trump’s policies increasing prices, not lowering them. IPSOS found 70 percent of Americans, including most Republicans, saying tariffs will lead to higher prices.

Only 37 percent of Americans accept the Trump rationale that “even if prices increase because of tariffs, it’s worth it to get what we want as a country.” Just 32 percent believe tariffs will lead to more American jobs.

Let’s be clear: For most voters, Donald Trump is far from the dangerous monster Democrats see. But if he doesn’t alter his course, his downward trajectory will continue, with his image, and that of his party, continuing to deteriorate.

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group a political consultancy. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years. He is also president of Democratic Majority for Israel.    

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