Trump victory casts uncertainty over Ukraine’s future

President-elect Trump’s stunning political comeback, capped by his victory over Vice President Harris this week, has sparked unease over Ukraine’s future and how the incoming Republican administration will handle the war against Russia.

Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine before the inauguration on Jan. 20, but he has offered few details about how that would be accomplished, leading to fears that he would cede territory seized by Russia in the nearly three-year war.

And there are mounting concerns about Trump’s affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who he called a “genius” after he invaded Ukraine in 2022 and reportedly called seven times since leaving office in January 2021.

Yuriy Boyechko, the CEO and founder of the charity organization Hope for Ukraine, said he was “dumbfounded” by Trump’s victory and unsure of what to expect from his administration.

“A lot of people have fear,” said Boyechko, a Ukrainian who lives in the U.S. but still has family and friends in the country. “The worst thing in life is unknowing, when you don’t know what to expect — that's what they have to live through right now and that’s the worst thing.”

Boyehcko, whose charity group helps feed and support Ukrainian families in need, called for Trump to release “actual policy” on how he will secure the country.

“Trump should make a clear message on what to do on Ukraine,“ he added.

In Kyiv, officials were not publicly expressing any immediate concerns.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted a congratulatory message on the social platform X shortly after Trump won, saying he appreciated Trump's promise of peace through strength and that he looks “forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership.”

“This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together,” he wrote.

Zelensky also referenced a September meeting he held with Trump in New York, calling it “great.” Trump, in his public remarks at the time, promised to quickly resolve the war and touted his relations with both Zelensky and Putin.

A source in Ukraine who spoke under condition of anonymity to discuss the September meeting said Trump asked genuine questions about the war and Zelensky’s victory plan, which includes a path to beating Russia by inviting Kyiv into NATO, lifting U.S. weapons restrictions and providing the nation with a nonnuclear strategic deterrent capability.

“He genuinely tried to learn something new, and Zelensky liked it,” the person said. “At the same time, I talked to people very close to Trump, and they said that Trump was a bit surprised that Zelensky didn't talk a lot about the concessions from the Ukrainian side.”

In Moscow, the Kremlin said Putin was not planning to congratulate Trump on his victory but is open to dialogue.

Trump’s victory comes as Russia is pressing forward on the battlefield and is in a stronger position than earlier in the war, when Ukrainian forces pushed back Russian forces from Kyiv to eastern Ukraine and retook territory in surprise offensives.

Now, Russian troops are slowly taking more territory across the 600-mile front, mostly in the eastern Donetsk region. And while Ukraine took swaths of territory in Russia’s neighboring Kursk region, Moscow is pushing to take that back with the assistance of some 10,000 North Korean soldiers.

Experts predict that in any deal, Trump will propose ceding territory in eastern Ukraine to Russia. But it’s unclear what that would look like, including whether the northeastern region of Kharkiv, which Russia invaded in May, would also be on the table, and how Ukraine’s occupation of Kursk would play out in negotiations.

Elon Musk, a close ally in his election campaign, has suggested such concessions as part of a peace pact.

Howard Stoffer, a professor of international affairs at the University of New Haven, said the most likely scenario is Russia keeps eastern Ukrainian territory in return for a fragile peace, with Ukraine unlikely to get any legitimate security guarantees like NATO membership, which Putin has deeply opposed.

“Any guarantees from Russia under Putin are worthless, but as long as Trump has put his reputation on the line for a cease-fire, and then a promise hostilities will not erupt again, then I think for four years, there probably won't be anything happening,” he said.

Stoffer said without any actual guarantees, he was worried that Putin will expand his territorial ambitions if Russia wins concessions in eastern Ukraine.

“I would say most of Eastern Europe is just vulnerable to Russia,” he said, saying Putin could target Moldova next. “It will embolden him."

Brian Taylor, a professor at Syracuse University who studies Russia, cast doubt that Trump could succeed in negotiating a committed peace, as both Moscow and Kyiv remain firmly on opposite sides on key issues, including NATO membership and Ukraine's sovereign control of territory. Putin's ultimate aim, he said, is still to gain political control over Ukraine, whether through force or political influence.

“I can't imagine Donald Trump rolling up his sleeves and digging into the nitty-gritty of the words of this conflict,” Taylor said. “That's not who he is [but] that's what it takes to bring about ceasefires and peace settlements, lots of detailed, nitty-gritty negotiation on a whole host of issues. It's not simply tell both sides to stop.”

Taylor added there could be serious implications for the rest of the world if Putin secures some kind of victory in Ukraine.

“It would almost certainly make the world more unstable if Russia were to succeed,” he said. “Countries that feel potentially threatened might conclude that what Ukraine's problem was is they didn't have nuclear weapons, and Russia did, so they might try and get nuclear weapons.”

“In countries that have aggressive designs on their neighbors, [they will think] getting a nuclear weapon makes it impossible for other countries to come to the help of this country in a way that's meaningful, because they fear nuclear escalation,” he continued.

But the message is not all gloomy in Ukraine.

Maksym Skrypchenko, the president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a think tank that advises Kyiv, said Trump may be a blessing in disguise because he likes “quick decisions” that may ultimately benefit Kyiv.

He cited the fact that if Trump wants to negotiate with Russia, he might have to slap harsher sanctions on Moscow or send more weapons to Ukraine.

“We all know what [would] happen with the Harris administration, it will be something very similar to the current Biden approach, which is not perfect for us in terms of not having enough tools to win militarily,” Skrypchenko said.

“At the same time, Trump, like nobody knows what he's going to do. I mean, talking to his advisers, it depends on the person you talk to, you can hear different approaches.”