Trump sets his sights on deep-blue New York
Former President Trump is homing in on deep-blue New York, a state seen as critical to determining who controls the House next year.
Trump has made multiple campaigns stops to the Empire State, including a rally on Long Island last week that featured a vulnerable House GOP member up for reelection.
Republicans doubt the former president will defeat Vice President Harris in New York, but they say his frequent appearances could juice enthusiasm among the base and help the party keep control of its razor-thin majority in the lower chamber.
“For any former president to visit an area, it’s very motivating for the base as you head into Election Day,” said New York Republican strategist Matt Coleman, who is from Long Island and not affiliated with any campaign.
Trump’s most recent trip to the state coincided with the date he was set to be sentenced for his conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his hush-money case that took place there. He kept the rally plan in place even after his sentencing was delayed until after the election.
The Republican nominee has made several trips to the city this year, especially as the criminal proceedings in New York against him advanced, and he has made appeals to voters to back him despite New York not voting for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
“Nassau Coliseum, on Long Island, will be a really big deal tomorrow. It will be PACKED with Patriots! We have a real chance of winning, for the first time in many decades, New York,” Trump said in a Truth Social post ahead of the rally.
He also asked New Yorkers in the post, “What the hell do you have to lose?” — a sentiment he repeated during his rally as he pointed to issues like the economy and immigration.
While Trump’s hopes of flipping New York seem lofty, Republicans point to other underlying reasons for his visits there, namely to boost four House Republicans in the state whose results may decide which party controls the House: Reps. Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams.
All four first-term representatives eked out narrow wins in their elections in 2022 by no more than a few points and are prime targets for Democrats hoping to take back the House in November. They have an uphill battle, with Vice President Harris likely to comfortably win the state at the presidential level.
After some of the New York representatives took a bit longer than some of their other GOP colleagues to endorse Trump’s 2024 bid, D’Esposito appeared with Trump at the rally. The other three did not.
Some Republicans said even in New York, being in line with the top of the ticket could boost these members across the finish line.
“From a political standpoint, you want to be aligned with the top of your ticket no matter what. It’s helpful to you,” Coleman said. “General consultants and their campaign teams see this as a potential boon to them. I mean, how often does a Republican candidate for president pay attention to New York other than flying in and out of the city to do a fundraiser?”
Former Rep. John Faso (R-N.Y.), who represented a swing district in the House, said although the presidential race will drive turnout, the outcome of the competitive House races will not be dependent on the top of the ticket.
“It's really a function of just making sure that you're reaching the targeted voters that are going to turn out in a high turnout presidential election,” Faso said, noting some of these representatives’ voters will be pro-Trump and some will be anti-Trump.
But Trump did make a shift just ahead of the rally that could be critical in the House races: throwing his support behind lifting the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction that he originally signed as part of his 2017 tax cut law. The issue is key for middle-class voters who pay high property taxes in places like New York.
Lawler’s congressional office issued a statement praising Trump’s shift after the announcement.
Faso said the issue is particularly potent near the New York metropolitan area but is less impactful further away from the city.
D’Esposito’s 4th District on Long Island includes Nassau County, known for particularly high property taxes.
But New York Republican strategist Jay Townsend expressed concern about the reaction to Trump’s appearances in the suburban areas where he is a liability. He said he would advise these House members to keep their distance from Trump.
“Trump will carry the rural areas of New York, but he is polarizing and toxic in suburban New York, and he would lose an election to Bernie Madoff if he’s on the ballot in New York City,” Townsend said.
And D’Esposito specifically may have an additional obstacle in his district following a New York Times report that he had an affair and had his fiancée's daughter and the woman he was having the affair with on his district office’s payroll. D’Esposito slammed the report as a “hit piece” and argued that his personal life has not interfered with his ability to deliver results for his district.
But the timing of the report not long before the election could increase his vulnerability, Townsend said.
“No candidate wants a story like that in the final six weeks of a campaign,” he said.
Date: | |
Tag: | New York |
-
The Guardian - World
‘How would I ever make sense of this place?’: new eyes on New York – in pictures
From lovers caught kissing to subway ‘scratchiti’, Joseph Michael Lopez took more than two decades – and 20,000 steps a day – looking for moments that defined his city Continue reading...6 hours ago - New York -
The New York Times - Top stories
N.Y.C. Rezoning Plan That Could Add 109,000 New Homes Is Set to Advance
The City Planning Commission is expected to approve a major rezoning proposal that would ease restrictions on development. The plan faces headwinds in the City Council.5 hours ago -
BBC News - Top stories
One in three children is short-sighted, global study suggests
There was a notable rise after Covid when children spent less time outdoors, researchers say.10 hours ago -
The Guardian - World
Minke whale sightings surge but basking sharks decline, finds Hebrides study
When sighting rates for basking sharks are high they are low for minke whales, says monitoring programme. The highest ever recorded numbers of minke whales and the lowest number of basking sharks ...7 hours ago -
Financial Times - World
Harris set to outline ‘pragmatic’ and ‘capitalist’ economic philosophy
Democratic presidential candidate has been under pressure to offer more details on plans3 hours ago -
ABC News - Sports
Former France and Real Madrid defender Raphael Varane announces his retirement
Former France and Real Madrid center back Raphael Varane has announced his retirement to end a career that included a World Cup title and a big haul of club trophies2 hours ago -
BBC News - Top stories
Ultra-rare 25p coin set to fetch hundreds at auction
A rare 25p coin could fetch up to £700 when it goes under the hammer at an auction in Wiltshire.7 hours ago -
Politico - Politics
House set to vote on bill to increase Secret Service protection for presidential candidates
5 days ago
More from The Hill
-
The Hill - Politics
Harris leads Trump by double digits among young voters: Survey
Younger voters appear to be more enthusiastic about Vice President Harris over former President Trump, according to a new survey, which shows Harris in the lead by double digits. The recent poll, ...24 minutes ago - Donald Trump -
The Hill - Politics
Pro-Hogan super PAC targets Alsobrooks over report on tax breaks
A super PAC supportive of Republican Maryland Senate candidate Larry Hogan is airing a new ad targeting Democrat Angela Alsobrooks over a recent CNN report that she improperly received tax breaks ...30 minutes ago -
The Hill - Politics
Republicans and Democrats are living in 2 different Americas
Americans are living in two completely different worlds when it comes to the 2024 election, with cable news networks providing only what viewers want to hear, rather than what they need to hear.35 minutes ago - Republican Party -
The Hill - Politics
We need to have a talk about making the federal bureaucracy work better
At a dinner in Washington, a group of politicians and NGO leaders discussed the challenges of running a federal agency and the importance of having the right people in place to "turn around the ...1 hour ago -
The Hill - Politics
Senate will vote Wednesday to avoid government shutdown, Schumer says
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced the Senate will vote Wednesday afternoon on a stopgap measure funding the federal government until Dec. 20 and will not consider any ...1 hour ago