President Trump's appeal will face a test Tuesday in the Florida special election to replace his national security adviser Mike Waltz in Florida’s 6th Congressional District.
Trump and Waltz each won the district by over 30 points in November but Republican candidate Randy Fine has lagged behind in fundraising and some polling in the special election for the district.
Trump and other national Republicans have turned their attention to the race over the past week ahead of what is likely to be a litmus test for Trump’s brand in the state that has become the center for the GOP universe.
“That’s what we’re seeing across the state and across the country is that people are wanting to know that their elected officials understand the moment that we are going through,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said in an interview with The Hill.
Republicans themselves have sought to make Trump the central focus of the race, banking on the tactic playing well in such a conservative district.
“It’s a pretty simple election: do people believe in the agenda of President Trump?” Fine said in a video streamed on X on Sunday. “Or do we want my opponent, who made a big deal about getting endorsed by Bernie Sanders, which I don’t know that I’d brag about in this part of the world.”
“Democrats are mad because every time President Trump wins they lose,” he added.
A Republican loss in the sixth district would be a political earthquake. The district, which Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) used to hold, has not been represented by a Democrat since 1989.
But national Republicans and Democrats turned their attention to the race after the Democratic candidate Josh Weil announced his campaign raised roughly $10 million and went up on air with ads in the district in early March. Fine, on the other hand, raised just under one million. Weil also outspent Fine by roughly $8.2 million to $895,000. On top of that, an internal poll from the Republican firm Fabrizio Ward showed Weil holding a 3-point lead over Fine.
Some national Democrats caution that the race is about overperforming in Trump country on the heels of a number of special election wins and over-performances this year. Florida Democrats say Weil’s momentum is an indication of discontent with Trump in the district that is reflected across the country.
Fried cited cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency, as well as fears of potential cuts to programs like Medicaid and Social Security.
“They’re disappointed in where this Trump administration is going. They feel betrayed,” she said. “It’s all across Florida and it’s all across the country.”
Republicans say Tuesday’s special elections, like any special elections, are not necessarily reflective of the electorate as a whole. They argue that special elections normally elicit a lower turnout, particularly from the party in power’s base.
“Certainly, if Republicans lost the seat, it would raise some serious concerns and require a post mortem. However, I don’t think the seat will be lost and any talk about margins of victory are irrelevant in a special election that many voters are not paying attention to,” said Nick Iarossi, a Florida Republican consultant.
A source told The Hill that Tennessee Rep. Ron Estes (R) sought to quell concerns over the special election at last week’s GOP conference meeting, noting that he won his special election to replace then-Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.) in 2017 by a narrow margin but has since won reelection with huge margins. Estes won his special election by roughly six points. In 2018, he won reelection by over 18 points.
“A lot of Republican voters and a lot of people we’ve taken in under Trump are ...
