Trump economic approval ratings sag as inflation fears grow

Polls show that Americans’ confidence is slipping in President Trump’s ability to handle the economy – the most important issue in the 2024 election and the one that likely carried Trump to a second presidential term.

Concerns about affordability, jobs, and inflation are weighing on Trump’s economic approval rating against a backdrop of faltering consumer sentiment and flashing economic warning signs, including a negative forecast for first-quarter GDP growth from the Atlanta Fed.

According to February Gallup polling, 42 percent of Americans are giving a thumbs up to Trump’s economic stewardship while 54 percent are giving him a thumbs down.

Approval of Trump’s handling of the economy also fell to 39 percent from 43 percent in polling released last week by Reuters/Ipsos.

This is notably a lower mark compared to the start of Trump’s first term in 2017, when his economic approval stood at 53 percent. While this could reflect less enthusiasm about the economy more generally, it is also a notable thing to watch for the president’s team.

Trump does still rank well above former President Biden on the economy. Biden left office with 34-percent approval on the economy after overseeing the highest inflation in 40 years during the course of his presidency.

On the economy, some polls still indicate Americans are worried about the direction.

Polling released this week by Reuters/Ipsos shows that 44 percent of Americans think the employment and jobs situation is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 33 percent who think it’s heading in the right direction.

The same poll found that 53 percent think the economy is on the wrong track, compared to 30 percent who think it’s improving; and a whopping 64 percent think their cost of living is getting worse while just 20 percent think it’s getting better.

At the macro level, new worries emerged Friday about the general direction of the economy.

The Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP forecast projected negative 1.5 percent growth for the first quarter. That’s much worse than just last week, when it was predicting 2.3 percent positive growth for the first quarter. A month ago, it was registering 3.9 percent growth.

Trump’s tariffs have prompted some economic concerns. Most of Trump’s threatened tariffs have not been imposed so far, but more are scheduled to come into play in the coming weeks.

“There is early evidence that current policy uncertainty is impacting consumer and business confidence,” Francis Yared and others wrote for Deutsche Bank in a Thursday investor note. “The current policy sequencing may result in the market pricing a heightened risk of recession.”

Consumer sentiment fell off a cliff in February, as measured by the University of Michigan, sliding nearly 10 percent from its January reading and nearly 16 percent from a year ago.

Year-ahead inflation expectations in the survey increased to 4.3 percent this month from 3.3 percent in January, the highest reading since November 2023.

Trump has acknowledged the recent rise in inflation, which has put a pin in the Fed’s schedule of stimulative interest rate cuts. Trump has also been quick to distance himself from it.

“Inflation is back. No, think of it: Inflation’s back,” Trump said on the Fox News Channel television network earlier this month. “And they said, ‘Oh, Trump,’ and I had nothing to do with that.”

A big pillar of Trump’s economic plans this year is to extend his 2017 tax cuts and to add to them. Trump has pledged to end taxes on tipping, and to end taxes on overtime, among other things.

Yet some question just how popular the tax cuts are.

Fifty-six percent of Americans disapproved of the tax cuts when they were first signed into law, while just 29 percent approved, according to Gallup polling from 2018.

That margin decreased somewhat over the subsequent year, shrinking to 46 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving, though it still remained in negative territory overall.

Democrats aiming to get back into power are hoping to use the GOP’s tax plans against Republicans, even as they also attack the majority for potential cuts to Medicaid.

“[Republicans] are asking for something that’s highly unpopular with the general public. It’s a great thing for extremely affluent people [and] high earners, but for average families what they’re suggesting is not palatable,” Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) told The Hill in January.

Topics

Trump approval rating holding at 44 percent: Survey

President Trump’s approval rating is holding firm at 44 percent after his first month back in the Oval Office, according to a survey released this week. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 44 percent ...
The Hill - 3d
Just 1 in 3 approve of job Trump doing on inflation: Survey

Just 1 in 3 people approve of the job President Trump is doing to curb inflation, a survey released Sunday found. Thirty-two percent of respondents in the poll, released Sunday by Reuters and ...
The Hill - 5d
Trump holds 52 percent approval rating after first month in office

President Trump holds a 52 percent approval rating in after his first month back in the Oval Office, polling shows. A Harvard CAPS/Harris survey found that 33 percent strongly approved of the ...
The Hill - 5d
No ‘golden age’ is coming. Trump’s tariffs will hit Americans with higher interest rates and more inflation.

Protectionism won’t make us rich — especially if tariffs launch a trade war.
MarketWatch - 3d
Consumer confidence dips in Trump's first month as tariff threats drive inflation fears

Consumers’ attitude toward the economy dipped during President Trump’s first month in office, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer survey released Friday. Consumer sentiment ...
The Hill - Feb. 21
Employee Fears of an Economic Downturn Rise on Latest Data

Though recent bumps in joblessness, growth, and inflation data remain minor, workers still worry that Trump’s tariffs, mass federal employee layoffs, and spending cuts could tank the economy.
Inc. - 1d
Japan's inflation rate climbs to a 2-year high of 4% in January, supporting rate hike calls from BOJ members

Core inflation — which excludes prices of fresh food — rose to 3.2% from 3% in the prior month and beat economists' expectations of 3.1%, according to a Reuters poll.
CNBC - Feb. 21
Column: With 2025 SAG Awards, Netflix proved it isn't solving awards season ratings crisis

The awards show with the largest percentage of famous faces failed to grow its audience in 2024 when it made its Netflix debut. It's tough to imagine it will do so this year.
Los Angeles Times - 5d
Interest Rate Cuts on Hold Till Inflation Improves, Fed Meeting Minutes Show

Officials are debating when to restart interest rate cuts, as high prices linger and Trump’s policies add to economic uncertainty.
The New York Times - Feb. 20
Fed’s Barkin says interest rates may have to rise to combat inflation headwinds

Barkin said he understands that the fight against inflation has been long, but that “it is critical that we remain steadfast.”
MarketWatch - 4d
The Fed’s favorite tool to track inflation unlikely to offer ammo for reducing U.S. interest rates

The latest look at U.S. inflation is unlikely to ease the worries on Wall Street, but it probably won’t add to the jitters.
MarketWatch - 2d
Bank of England rate setter warns of higher UK inflation risk driven by wages

Deputy governor Dave Ramsden says interest rate cuts must be gradual
Financial Times - 1d
Bank of Korea slashes rates to lowest since August 2022 on economic worries, cuts growth forecast

The Bank of Korea cut rates to 2.75% from 3%, in line with expectations from economists polled by Reuters, trimming rates for the third time in four meetings.
CNBC - 4d
Dow drops 700 points for worst day of 2025 so far on new fears about economic growth

Stocks sold off on Friday as new U.S. data sparked concern among investors over a slowing economy and sticky inflation, leading them in search of safer assets.
NBC News - Feb. 21
A Trump DOGE Dividend Could Raise Inflation

President Trump floated giving taxpayers a piece of any savings that Elon Musk’s cost-cutting generates, which could reignite inflation.
The New York Times - Feb. 20
Trump’s tariffs spook consumers weary of inflation

The high spirits that greeted the US president’s election triumph in November have faded
Financial Times - 3d
Inflation Is Rising. What Will That Mean for Trump’s Tariffs?

Consumer sentiment has turned south as high prices weigh on households. Could that crimp big pieces of the president’s economic agenda, including tariffs?
The New York Times - 1d
Europe’s elite fears Trump, Musk and the truth

The EU's ruling class has become fanatical in its desire to censor.
The Hill - Feb. 21
Confusion, fear at the Justice Department under Trump

The Department of Justice is in upheaval from firings and resignations in the first weeks of the Trump administration. Fear has silenced many in the department, but two prosecutors are speaking up.
CBS News - 5d
Trump calls Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’ in growing war of words

Even as the White House pushes to end the war in Ukraine, President Donald Trump is escalating his attacks on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, describing him as a "dictator." NBC’s Richard Engel ...
NBC News - Feb. 20
Trump, Macron project unity amid growing cracks

Welcome to The Hill's Defense & NatSec newsletter {beacon} Defense &National Security Defense &National Security The Big Story Trump, Macron project unity amid Ukraine-Russia divide President ...
The Hill - 4d
Trump administration approves nearly $3 billion arms sale to Israel

The arms sale approval comes as the first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is set to expire on Saturday.
CBS News - 19h
Trump administration approves nearly $3 billion arms sale to Israel

The Trump administration approved a nearly $3 billion arms sale to Israel on Friday, bypassing the normal congressional review by declaring the war against Hamas an "emergency." The State ...
NBC News - 6h
Fed Flags Rising Inflation Risks and Rising Uncertainty About Trump’s Policies

Rates cuts are still on the menu, but like many businesses, Fed officials are having a tough time judging the impact of Trump’s tariff and immigration plans.
Inc. - Feb. 20
Americans Brace for Inflation as Trump’s Tariffs Start to Take Effect

More Americans are starting to brace for higher prices as President Trump’s policies begin to take effect.
The New York Times - 3d
Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on EU imports could trigger ‘economic turmoil’

US president’s plan could prove to be an economic shock to both blocs, German thinktank says. Business live – latest updates Donald Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on EU imports could trigger ...
The Guardian - 2d
‘Trump Bump’ in Stocks Faded in February Amid Economic Anxiety

A bounce in the S&P 500 on Friday afternoon wasn’t enough to pull the index out of the red for the month.
The New York Times - 23h
Trump removes Ice chief amid apparent frustration over rate of deportations

Caleb Vitello reassigned as administration reportedly unhappy at slow rate of arrests and deportations. Donald Trump’s presidential administration has reassigned its top official at US Immigration ...
The Guardian - Feb. 21
Rare Protest at U.S. Embassy in Ukraine Reflects Fears Over Trump

The demonstration drew only a handful of people, but showed how some Ukrainians fear that Washington is drifting away from backing Ukraine now that President Trump is in power.
The New York Times - 2d
Some European Allies Fear Trump Is Out to Destroy Them

Debate is building over just how deep the Trump administration’s antagonism runs, and whether the real goal is to destroy the European Union.
The New York Times - 2d
Divide with key allies grows over Trump deal that favors Russia

While the divide between the United States and key allies grows over support for Ukraine, President Donald Trump appears focused on terms of a deal that are favorable for Russia. NBC’s Peter ...
NBC News - 4d
Trump defends Musk as backlash to federal workers ultimatum grows

President intervenes amid first signs of internal dissension as government departments push back. Donald Trump has stepped in to defend Elon Musk from a mounting backlash in his own ...
The Guardian - 3d
AFP grows Capitol Hill footprint; Trump 2028 push looks to House

Americans for Prosperity (AFP) may be in the doghouse with President Trump, but it is increasing its footprint on Capitol Hill as it advocates for its top priority this year: Extension of the ...
The Hill - 2d
Swalwell tells Rubio to ‘grow a pair’ after Trump-Zelensky squabble

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) told Secretary of State Marco Rubio to “grow a pair” after the former senator defended President Trump after his heated meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr ...
The Hill - 19h
Consumer confidence sinks to 8-month low on worries about inflation and Trump tariffs

A postelection high in consumer confidence after the election of Donald Trump has petered out, as the public digests major upheavals in U.S. economic policies by the new White House.
MarketWatch - 4d
Dow wipes out its gains since Trump’s inauguration as ‘stagflation’ fears return

U.S. stocks ended the week on an ugly note Friday, posting their worst day of 2025 — and a run of soft economic data was getting much of the blame.
MarketWatch - Feb. 21
‘Unqualified henchmen’: fears rise as Trump names far-right podcaster as FBI deputy director

Dan Bongino’s installation in high-ranking law enforcement role sparks concern in both Republicans and Democrats. Fears over the future direction of the FBI have intensified after Donald Trump ...
The Guardian - 5d
Trump administration briefing: chaos caused by Musk’s Doge; fears over far-right podcaster tapped for FBI

From the latest in Musk’s fight to fire federal workers to concern over appointment of Dan Bongino – key US politics stories from Monday at a glance. Confusion continued on Monday over the demands ...
The Guardian - 4d