Trump earned his title, but his mandate claims are a myth

Democrats don’t contest the fact that President Trump and his fellow Republicans earned the right to steer our national government, a right Trump sought to deny his predecessor through false statements, fraud and ultimately violence.

Notwithstanding his frequent statements to the contrary, however, Trump did not earn a mandate for his radical policy changes.

Trump takes obvious pride in winning the popular vote, but his margin was as tiny as ... let’s just leave it at tiny. Fewer than 50 percent of voters cast their ballot for him while his margin over Vice President Harris was less than 1.5 percentage points.

Pretty puny by historical standards. Only nine presidential elections out of the 49 for which we have popular counts were won with lesser margins. Nineteen presidential elections yielded true landslide victories of 10 points or more. Trump’s advantage was nowhere close to that.

Second, that’s not how our system, or voters’ brains, work.

Voters aren’t given the opportunity to vote for or against a platform, never mind that Republicans barely offered one. In 2024, the GOP purposely shrunk its platform dramatically, offering a simple series of goals, because they knew advocating the policies required to reach those goals would create unbearable electoral burdens.

Even if Republicans had offered a more complete platform, that’s not how voters make up their minds.

Political scientists have debated the importance of issues in Americans’ voting calculus since the 1940s. The consensus: precious few are issue voters, casting ballots based on the specific issue positions of the candidates.

Most important, though, in polls and votes on ballot measures, majorities made clear they stand in direct opposition to many of Trump’s policy prescriptions.

While Trump proclaims a mandate for mass deportations, 55 percent told Fox News pollsters “most immigrants who are living in the United States illegally [should] be offered a chance to apply for legal status.” Only 44 percent endorse Trump’s desire to see them “deported to the country they came from.”

In response to a different question, Pew found 64 percent saying undocumented immigrants “should have a way to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met.” Just 35 percent endorse Trump’s view that “undocumented immigrants should not be allowed to stay in the country legally.”

Immigration is not the only issue on which the American people are at odds with Trump’s policies. Republicans have no mandate from the American people on abortion. Sixty-three percent of the country says abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Unlike Trump, 70 percent of voters see racism as a serious problem in this country, and contra Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., only 22 percent want less government involvement in making certain children are vaccinated. Fifty-seven percent want stricter gun laws, only 34 percent want to eliminate the Department of Education and 72 percent favor expanding use of wind energy, while Trump just banned it.

Only 32 percent support Trump’s plan to use economic coercion or military force to retake ownership of the Panama Canal and even fewer — 19 percent — favor using those tools to take control of Greenland.

Fifty-seven percent oppose pardons for Jan. 6 rioters, just 29 percent want increased tariffs on imports, and 60 percent think it is a bad idea for Trump to rely on policy advice from billionaires.

For those who disdain polls, Americans voted directly on some of these issues in initiatives and referenda. Ballot measures protecting abortion rights garnered majorities in a series of red states including Florida, Missouri, Montana and Nevada.

Republicans oppose raising the minimum wage, but most Americans support it. Voters in ruby red Alaska and Missouri voted to increase their minimum wage. Nationally, 83 percent of voters favor raising the minimum wage to $12 an hour, with 64 percent endorsing a hike to $17.

Trump won. But he earned less than a majority from an electorate that was not given the opportunity to vote on the specifics of his agenda. Both polls and initiative results point to majorities rejecting many Trump policy positions.

Indeed, only 27 percent believe “American voters have given Donald Trump a mandate to govern as he sees fit.”

The mandate Trump wields as a bludgeon in public debate is a myth. While voters want change, they oppose a Trump revolution.

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group a political consultancy. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years. He is also president of Democratic Majority for Israel.    

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