To end the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump will need to get leverage

President Trump once claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours. That was absurd. More recently, people close to him have offered a longer timeline, measured in months. Even that will prove a daunting challenge: a wide chasm separates the warring parties.

If Trump is serious about brokering a durable settlement, he will need leverage with both.

Nearly three years after Russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has evolved into a bloody war of attrition. The Russian military had momentum in 2024, but it gained only 1,600 square miles or less than one percent of Ukraine’s territory. In total, Russia’s army today occupies about 18 percent of Ukraine, less than it did in 2022.

Polls in Ukraine show growing support for negotiations, though a sizable number of Ukrainians still oppose territorial concessions. In late 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested a readiness to accept a ceasefire with the loss of some territory, at least temporarily. He tied that to NATO membership to protect the rest of Ukraine from further Russian aggression.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues the war but faces the prospect of ever-rising casualties, around 800,000 by some estimates. Moreover, Russia’s economy is under stress, with inflation over 9 percent and growing risk of stagflation. The Kremlin has indicated that Putin is prepared to meet Trump. The Russia-Ukraine war presumably would top his agenda.

Expectations have grown since Trump’s election that his administration will make a serious bid to broker an end to the fighting. Any agreement will be judged by how much territory Ukraine must cede and what security arrangements Kyiv would receive.

The less territory Ukraine must give up and the stronger the security guarantees it receives, the greater the prospects the agreement will prove durable — and that U.S. mediation would be seen as a victory for Trump’s diplomacy. He might even win the Nobel Peace Prize he covets.

On the other hand, a U.S.-brokered settlement that requires Kyiv to cede a great deal of territory with only weak guarantees would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russia attack. Few would regard that outcome as a triumph of American diplomacy.

To get Putin and Zelensky to negotiate seriously, Trump needs leverage. He already has plenty with the Ukrainian leader, given Kyiv’s need for U.S. arms, ammunition and financial support. Zelensky since November has seemed amenable to serious talks.

Putin, on the other hand, made maximalist demands when Russia launched the 2022 invasion and has since advanced harsher terms, even when Russia’s army was retreating on the battlefield. The Russian leader will need a strong push to move off of his current position, which would require a capitulation that Ukrainians will not—and should not be expected to — accept.

Trump needs to build leverage with the Kremlin. First, he should ask Congress for a $40-$50 billion military assistance bill for Ukraine. That would easily pass both houses of Congress with his endorsement. Almost all the money would be spent in the U.S., either for the purchase of modern new weapons for the U.S. military to replace old arms taken out for Ukraine or for contracts with American defense firms for Ukraine.

Second, Trump should have his administration work with allies to tighten sanctions to further stress the Russian economy. One way would seek to close loopholes that allow Western technology to seep into Russia. A second way would take the current Western stance that Russian oil can ship on Western tankers with Western insurance only if the oil is sold at $60 per barrel and lower that price to $45 per barrel. The lower price would still exceed Russia’s cost of production, so Moscow would continue to sell though receive reduced revenues.

Third, Trump should work with the G7 and Europeans to seize the frozen Russian Central Bank assets of some $300 billion and transfer them to a fund for Ukraine’s military and reconstruction needs. Currently, interest on those assets supports a $50 billion loan to Kyiv. The Kremlin does not like that, but it would hate Ukraine gaining access to the full amount. This would give the Russians reason to negotiate quickly to try to secure a settlement before any transfer was made.

These steps would signal to Putin that he needs to get serious and negotiate in good faith for a reasonable agreement or face even higher military, economic and political costs. These steps also would make clear that, as mediator, Trump intends to be hard-nosed — not the pushover that some in Moscow appear to expect. Such actions would position Trump best for a negotiation that would have to overcome sharp substantive differences but that, if successful, would greatly enhance his standing and influence on the global stage.

Steven Pifer, an affiliate of Stanford’s Center for International Security and the Brookings Institution, is a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

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