Thune, Cornyn look to clinch top leadership spot with campaign blitz

Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) has crisscrossed the country this month to campaign with Senate GOP incumbents and challengers, hoping to lock down the votes he needs to put him over the top in a closely contested leadership race with Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

This month alone, Thune has traveled to Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Montana and New York City to attend a fundraiser for Arizona Republican candidate Kari Lake and other GOP candidates. He’s visited some of those states multiple times.

Thune held virtual events with Nevada candidate Sam Brown, Ohio candidate Bernie Moreno, and Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), who has a tougher-than-expected race against independent Dan Osborn.

And he took a bus tour of Wisconsin on Tuesday with Republican businessman Eric Hovde, who’s in a dead-heat race with Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).

Cornyn has logged thousands of frequent flier miles himself.

He spent time last week with former President Trump in Texas and earlier this month attended a rally with Trump in Reno.

He also held hard-dollar fundraising events this month with candidates across the country, including former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in Michigan, combat veteran Brown in Nevada, and Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) in Indiana.

He held events in Dallas and Houston earlier this month that raised $1 million in one day for Moreno, Rogers, Hovde and Montana candidate Tim Sheehy, showing once again that Texas is one of the biggest Republican fundraising machines in the country.

One former senior Senate Republican aide with experience in leadership races told The Hill these late campaign visits could help put either candidate over the top in their bid to become leader.

“It’s critical. The election for leader is deeply personal and it’s all about your friendship and connection with the candidate,” said the former aide.

Senate Republican sources say neither Thune nor Cornyn appear to have locked down commitments from a majority of Republican senators, and a large chunk of the conference is waiting on the results of the 2024 election before promising their votes to someone. Thune and Cornyn so evenly matched in their talents, temperament and relationships that anything could swing the race to one candidate or the other, they say.

“[Thune] and John Cornyn are so similar in so many respects. Each of them would probably do an equal job,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). “Then you look at existing relationships. For me, it’s a really tough one.”

The third candidate in the race to replace McConnell is Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R), who right now is focused on his reelection race.

He is seen as trailing Thune and Cornyn, but his allies hope he could win if former President Trump wins and throws his support wholeheartedly behind Scott.

Thune says his top goal is to help his “team” win back control of the Senate, but every goodwill point scored could help tip the vote to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who will step down from his leadership role after heading the Senate GOP conference for 18 years.

Thune increased his disbursements to GOP colleagues and candidates dramatically after the third quarter of 2023, when it became increasing clear to Republican senators that McConnell was likely to step down from his position because of lingering health problems related to a fall he suffered that March.

Faced with McConnell’s imminent retirement, Thune has had to prove to colleagues that coming from a small state wouldn’t hamper his ability to raise money for the party, something McConnell excelled at throughout his career.

Cornyn, Thune’s top rival, comes from one of the wealthiest Republican states in the country and has a long history of giving generously to GOP candidates.

Cornyn has directed nearly $325 million to Senate Republican colleagues, candidates, leadership PACs and the National Republican Senatorial Committee since 2002, when he won election to Congress.

And he has raised $26 million in the current election cycle, including $11.8 million for the NRSC. Since 2002, he has provided $500,000 a person to 33 senators and candidates.

Thune was regarded by Senate Republican sources earlier this year as the “front-runner” to replace McConnell given he is the second highest-ranking member of the Senate GOP leadership. As whip, he has a hands-on role managing the Senate floor, something that became more apparent after McConnell had a concussion in March 2023.

But there is a sense the race with Cornyn has tightened in recent months. Senate Republican sources now say Cornyn appears to have momentum after announcing his career fundraising accomplishments for the Senate GOP.

Thune reported just more than $1 million in quarterly contributions to GOP colleagues and candidates in the third quarter of 2023. That amount then jumped to $2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 and skyrocketed to more than $5 million in the second quarter this year.

He has raised more than $31 million for Senate Republicans this cycle, including money raised through his campaign accounts, for the NRSC and directly for candidates. Thune set a record by transferring $4 million from his personal campaign account to the NRSC last month. And he raised $2 million in September for Trump at a fundraiser in Washington, accounting for half the entire fundraising total for the event.

He has headlined more than 200 events for candidates and the Senate Republican campaign arm this election cycle and ranks only behind NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) as the top fundraiser for the campaign committee this cycle.

Thune intensified his campaign activities in August and September, forging stronger bonds with colleagues and candidates.

Before this month, he traveled around the country to help Cramer, Banks, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Republican candidate David McCormick in Pennsylvania, Lake, Brown, Sheehy, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Rogers, Moreno, Hovde and Rep. John Curtis (R), who’s running for Senate in Utah.