Three polling yellow flags to watch for in 2024
When Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election, there was another loser: the polling industry.
The race was much closer than advertised. Polls overestimated support for Joe Biden by a sizable 3.9 percentage points in final national matchups. Polling for the 2022 midterms tended to be far more accurate, but here’s the thing: Trump wasn’t on those ballots. With pollsters already being criticized for supposed biases, they should find Trump’s return especially challenging.
They’ll try to correct the 2020 underestimation of President Trump. The question is how. Trump remains a wild card — someone who’s deviated from established Republican positions but still holds significant support and is making inroads with traditionally Democratic minority and working-class voters. This makes it particularly difficult to capture where many voters are accurately.
It's also possible that this time around, pollsters are overcorrecting and underestimating Biden’s support. If not, it’s looking grim for the president lately. In a new Wall Street Journal poll, Trump leads Biden in six of seven swing states. If these findings bear out in November, Biden’s toast. His campaign communications director says current polls underestimate the president’s support, but it’s hard to know whether this is more than wishful thinking.
Clearly, there’s a lot we don’t know. But there are three areas of caution to watch for in the polls:
First, with lingering anger about the “stolen” 2020 election, Trump Republicans are increasingly choosing not to participate in polls. Trump continues to foment concerns about the fairness of our elections — from dissuading people from voting early to raising questions about voting machine accuracy. All of this contributes to a growing mistrust among many Republicans in the election process, including polling.
So, although a voter’s party affiliation tends to be one of the strongest indicators of who they’ll vote for, when it comes to polling, party affiliation isn’t as clear a predictor as it once was. The Republicans choosing to participate in polls tend to be less supportive of Trump than the full GOP electorate is. Therefore, actual Republican support for the former president is likely greater than what polls show. These days, asking participants who they voted for in the previous presidential contest tends to yield a more accurate understanding of what voters are thinking.
Second, during the primary season, there was some conjecture that polls overstated Trump’s support among GOP voters — that there might be more openness to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) or Nikki Haley than polls showed. This speculation turned out not to be true.
Longtime GOP pollster Whit Ayres said before the primaries that he believed a majority of Republicans were “Maybe Trump.” These candidates “voted for Trump twice and they’d vote for him again in a heartbeat against Joe Biden,” but “were open to considering other candidates either because they felt like Trump carried too much baggage or he might have difficulty winning.” If true, those Maybe Trumpers ended up breaking for the former president in the primaries.
By Ayres’s reasoning, these voters will support Trump again in the general election. But if they’re not hardcore MAGA believers, perhaps they can be swayed, in part because Trump is not currently doing anything to encourage non- or tepid-MAGA types to support him.
Joe Biden recently extended a small olive branch to Maybe Trumpers when his campaign released a new 30-second video targeted to Haley voters, suggesting they can find a home with his campaign. Although this appeal might not swing many Republicans, it may encourage enough of them to stay home on election day. This year, every little shift could make a difference.
Third, while there have been polling failures, some blame for unexpected election outcomes lies with voters themselves. What voters tell pollsters and what they do in the voting booth frequently don’t line up. This may especially be the case with non-traditional candidates like Trump.
U.S. News & World Report’s Lauren Camera observed last year that Trump’s 2016 White House win exhibited a “bizarro Bradley effect.” In 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who was Black, famously lost the California governor’s race although polls put him in front. It’s believed that polls inflated Bradley's support because voters didn’t want to seem racist to pollsters.
It was the opposite situation for Trump in 2016 and 2020: Eventual Trump voters didn’t want to admit support for him to pollsters. Given Trump’s legal woes, we might see this backward Bradley effect again.
One thing we do know when it comes to 2024 polling is that, to borrow a term from Donald Rumsfeld, there are a lot of known unknowns. Pollsters are operating on shifting sands, and as hard as they try, they may not be able to fully and accurately project what voters will really do.
Jennifer Tiedemann is the executive editor of Discourse magazine at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
Date: |
Topics
Filter
-
Trump and Biden running even in three battleground states, new CBS News poll shows
President Biden and former President Donald Trump are running even in a new CBS News poll of battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. CBS News director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto joins "Face the Nation" to discuss.CBS News - Top stories - Joe Biden -
Biden, Trump in tight race in three battleground states in new CBS News poll
With a little over six months to go until the 2024 election, President Biden and former President Trump are locked in a tight race in several battleground states, according to a new CBS News poll. Skyler Henry breaks down some of the numbers.CBS News - Top stories - Joe Biden -
Trump and Biden running even in three battleground states, new CBS News poll shows
President Biden and former President Donald Trump are running even in a new CBS News poll of battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. CBS News director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto joins "Face the Nation" to discuss.CBS News - Politics - Joe Biden -
Biden, Trump in tight race in three battleground states in new CBS News poll
With a little over six months to go until the 2024 election, President Biden and former President Trump are locked in a tight race in several battleground states, according to a new CBS News poll. Skyler Henry breaks down some of the numbers.CBS News - Politics - Joe Biden -
The key councils to watch
Where might the main political parties make gains and losses in the local elections on 2 May?BBC News - Top stories -
Met Gala 2024: A Guide to the Theme, Hosts and How to Watch
What’s the dress code, who’s hosting, who’s going and how to watch.The New York Times - Lifestyle -
2024 NBA Playoffs schedule: How to watch tonight's games
It's time for the 2024 NBA playoffs. Here's how to follow all the action on the court.Yahoo Sports - Sports - NBA -
How to watch the 2024 NBA Playoffs free tonight with Hulu + Live TV
Stream the 2024 NBA Playoffs free and get access to nearly every game. Hulu + Live TV gives more NBA access for less money.CBS News - Top stories - NBA
More from The Hill
-
Speaker Johnson slams reports that ICC is considering arrest warrants for Israeli leaders
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Monday slammed reports that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is planning on issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials. In a statement, Johnson ...The Hill - Politics - Israel -
Bob Bakish steps down as head of Paramount
Bob Bakish is stepping down as head of media conglomerate Paramount, the company announced on Monday. Bakish's resignation comes as the massive legacy media brand is negotiating a potential sale with Skydance after months of fielding offers from ...The Hill - Politics -
Pelosi accuses MSNBC host of being 'apologist for Donald Trump'
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) accused MSNBC's Katy Tur of being an "apologist" for former President Trump on Monday. During an appearance on the network, Pelosi touted President Biden's record on the economy, saying, he "created 9 ...The Hill - Politics - Donald Trump -
Trump-RFK Jr. feud heats up as polls tighten
A fiery battle between former President Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is heating up as polls begin to show that the third-party candidate represents just as much of a threat to the former president as President Biden. “RFK Jr. is a Democrat ...The Hill - Politics - Donald Trump -
AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile hit with $200M FCC fine for sharing user location data without consent
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) issued a fine totaling $200 million to the nation’s four largest mobile carriers after concluding an investigation that found the companies illegally shared access to customers’ location data, the agency ...The Hill - Politics