The strategic logic of Ukraine’s further push into Russia’s Kursk region

Ukraine is launching a fresh offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, aiming to reclaim the initiative, expose Russia’s persistent vulnerabilities and strengthen its position ahead of potential peace talks. At the same time, Russia continues to press further in Donetsk Oblast, taking as much Ukrainian land as possible before President-elect Trump takes office. While many pundits questioned Ukraine’s initial incursion into Kursk in August 2024, outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken has acknowledged that Ukraine’s positions there could play an important role in potential negotiations with Russia.

Following the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the frontlines began to stabilize and the fight gradually turned into a war of attrition. Ukraine’s former top general, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, admitted in an interview in 2023 that he misjudged Russia, believing he could stop the Russians by bleeding them out: “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.”

But for Russia, human life means little; Vladimir Putin measures the losses in comparison to the Great Patriotic War (what Russians call World War II). So we can assume that Putin is willing to expend hundreds of thousands more, or even millions, of soldiers to conquer Ukraine. Independent Russian polling in 2024 also confirms that the majority of Russians support the ongoing war against Ukraine.

Nonetheless, this war of attrition clearly favors Russia. With Russia’s economy on a war footing, Putin is prepared for slow advances to wear out the Ukrainians. As The Economist recently warned, “Russia cannot fight forever. But the worry among American, European, and Ukrainian officials is that, on current trends, Ukraine’s breaking point will come first.”

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi revealed in October that the initial Kursk offensive forced Russia to redeploy 50,000 troops to the front. While its objective wasn’t solely to drain Russian resources, Ukraine sought to shift the discourse on the war by showcasing its capacity to take the fight into Russian territory. Ukraine’s strategy as of late has been focused on demonstrating Russia’s vulnerabilities and its ability to strike back, as evidenced by its consistent long-range drone attacks deep within Russian borders.

In a nation like Russia — with a history of sudden upheavals, such as the Soviet Union’s collapse — rapid and unpredictable shifts remain a distinct possibility. Military defeats have often triggered political turmoil, such as in 1917, when losses in World War I helped spark the Russian Revolution. While today’s circumstances are different, the underlying dynamics are similar: Sustained battlefield pressure, combined with growing domestic discontent, could pave the way for an unexpected “black swan” event. But this is not what Ukraine was going for in Kursk.

Ukraine aimed to challenge the self-imposed red lines set by the Biden administration and other Western leaders regarding its ability to strike back against Russia. Following Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, the narrative shifted, boosting morale. As polling revealed, for the first time since November 2023, a majority of Americans believed Ukraine was winning the war.

The narrative battle and public opinion are important because the Biden administration and its allies have been paralyzed by indecision throughout, hesitating to provide Ukraine with the necessary capabilities to fully fight back against Russia. Instead of strengthening Ukraine’s capacity, the administration has focused on managing press leaks about Ukraine’s weapons requests, such as Tomahawk missiles.

Meanwhile, some members of the Russian opposition, including the widow of the late dissident Alexei Navalny, have criticized the fact that bombs are hitting Russia. But this pressure is precisely what’s needed. Russia’s aggression persists largely because its population feels insulated from the war. Ordinary Russians — not just Putin — participate in the acts of violence and looting. The sense of collective irresponsibility in Russian society allows the war to continue unchallenged.

Now Russia’s economy is displaying growing vulnerabilities, with rampant inflation leading the central bank scrambling to stabilize the ruble. Additional sanctions, such as ones targeting Russia’s shadow fleet and oil revenues, could further strain the Russian economy, offering the Trump administration a strategic opportunity to increase pressure to negotiate. It remains to be seen if Trump is willing to use this pressure, as his incoming national security advisor once suggested. Trump is keen on looking strong and negotiating from a position of strength, according to the Financial Times.

Ukraine’s fresh military operation in Kursk appears to be a strategically calculated move in the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration. Feeling the pressure, Putin has deployed one of his most capable military commanders, Gen. Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, to oversee operations in the Kursk region in an effort to regain control. Since August, Russia has managed to reclaim around 40 percent of the territory initially seized by Ukraine, but it has not fully pushed Ukraine out. Ukraine is now moving toward the village of Bolshoe Soldatskoe, northeast of the Ukrainian-held Russian town of Sudzha, seemingly taking advantage of gaps in Russian lines.

While these military maneuvers are risky for Ukraine, the potential political benefits are significant enough to justify the attempt. Ukraine aims to project strength and demonstrate that it is very much in the fight and that the West needs to continue its support.

With the incoming administration holding all the cards, Trump might conclude that Russia’s current weakness and vulnerability present the perfect opportunity to ramp up pressure, compelling Russia to come to the table and begin negotiations. Ukrainian-occupied Kursk would then become a key bargaining chip in negotiations with Putin.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.

Topics

Russia and Ukraine Battle Inside Kursk, With Waves of Tanks, Drones and North Koreans

Ukrainian soldiers are describing fierce clashes as Russian forces try to retake territory in the Kursk region that could be key in eventual cease-fire talks.
The New York Times - 3d
Zelenskyy said Ukraine captured 2 wounded North Korean soldiers in Russia's Kursk region. Here's what we know.

Yahoo News - 4d
Ukraine renews attack on Russia's Kursk region

It comes as Ukraine's president says only the US can provide security guarantees leading to an end to the war.
BBC News - Jan. 6
Moldova blames Russia for energy crisis in breakaway region

People of Transnistria forced to chop wood to heat homes after gas transit deal via Ukraine expires
Financial Times - Jan. 6
Ukraine presses attacks in Russia's Kursk region

Zelenskyy says he will urge allies to boost his country's air defenses this week
ABC News - Jan. 5
Ukraine Attacks Kursk Region of Russia Anew

Ukrainian forces’ assault was in the Russian region where they made a surprise incursion last summer.
The New York Times - Jan. 5
Ukraine launches counterattack in Russian border region

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he will again call on allies to boost his country's air defenses at a Ramstein group meeting in Germany this week.
CBS News - Jan. 5
Ukraine launches new offensive in Russia's Kursk region

Ukraine launched a surprise new offensive in Russia’s Kursk region on Sunday, aiming to strike back after months under pressure ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.
NBC News - Jan. 5
Ukraine launches surprise operation in Russia’s Kursk region

Footage purports to show Ukrainian armoured columns advancing towards village of Bolshoe Soldatskoe. Ukrainian armed forces began a surprise offensive in Russia’s Kursk region on Sunday, in an ...
The Guardian - Jan. 5