The state of the union under Trump is ... definitely not strong

Here is the problem facing President Trump Tuesday night when he speaks to Congress. These speeches usually begin with every president, Republican or Democrat, declaring that the state of the nation is strong. Presidents want to project confidence.

But the truth is the state of the country is pretty shaky and its people are anxious, particularly agitated by Trump’s economic policies.

How can he say the state of the nation is strong when the price of eggs and overall inflation is heading up? He said they would go down quickly once he won office. But egg prices are expected to rise by 41 percent this year, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture projection released last week.

How can he say the state of nation is anything but anxious after he promised that tariffs on imports would lead to more jobs, higher wages and lower prices? Again, that has not happened.

A late February Reuters-Ipsos poll found that the share of Americans who believe the economy is on the wrong track jumped from 43 percent in January to 53 percent in February. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating on handling the economy dropped to 39 percent, down from 43 percent. This is a stark contrast to the 53 percent approval he enjoyed in February 2017, the first full month of his initial term.

It turns out that arbitrarily slashing federal programs, making erratic tariff threats and pushing another regressive tax cut for the wealthy while considering cuts to Medicaid are not inspiring hope in the economy.

To get away from the political trap he has created for himself, Trump will point to a drop in undocumented immigrants crossing the border illegally since he took office. That could work to get some people to cheer for him.

Rushing to the border without papers remains unpopular. Trump has changed the rules at the border to stop immigrants who are seeking asylum from waiting in the U.S. for a hearing. Biden had limited such asylum applications in June, but Trump has basically changed asylum law by cancelling all appointments.

After he plays that card, Trump will be grasping to find anything that allows people to believe the nation is actually strong. As you watch Tuesday night, look for Trump to throw out these claims to project strength:

He will say he is firing lots of federal government employees to cut the size of government. Lots of Americans agree that government is too big. But a Washington Post-Ipsos poll found a 58 percent majority opposed to what Trump is doing.

Trump will give a shout-out to the world’s richest man and his largest campaign donor, Elon Musk, the tech billionaire, who is scheduled to be in the House chamber. Trump will celebrate Musk for firing federal employees. But polls show most Americans say it is a “bad” idea for Musk, an unelected figure, to have the power to eliminate workers and shut down federal programs. That is the opinion of 54 percent in a CNN poll and 52 percent in the Post poll.

The president will get far-right Republicans in Congress to clap for his shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development, claiming to have cut tax dollars going overseas. But polls by CNN and the Washington Post find Americans oppose the end of USAID — by 25 points, in the CNN poll.

Trump will also try to attract support by celebrating his pardons for the people who marched into the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to try to keep him in the White House despite his loss of the 2020 election. These pardons, however, are very unpopular. Even Republican-leaning voters disapprove, by a 43-point margin in the Post poll.

Don’t expect Trump to mention the upset he has caused in the military by firing the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He replaced Gen. C.Q. Brown with a general loyal to Trump but with a far inferior record as a military leader.

Trump has also fired the military lawyers responsible for halting unlawful action by troops. If Trump were to order the U.S. military to take over American cities, they would be strong opponents.

With these acts, even red state voters who put Trump in office for a second time are already standing up in townhalls to tell congressional Republicans they are not happy with Trump’s first month.

Democrats are likely to retake the House in 20 months, as the opposition party historically does in midterms. But at this rate, they will have a lot of work to repair the damage.

At the close of the Constitutional convention in 1787 a woman asked Ben Franklin: “What kind of government have you given us?” “A republic,” Franklin famously replied, "if you can keep it, Madam."

That question now confronts America in 2025. An honest accounting of the state of our nation would acknowledge that the government is in crisis, the nation is politically divided and our economic outlook is declining.

Trump cannot credibly claim that the state of the nation is strong.

Juan Williams is senior political analyst for Fox News Channel and a prize-winning civil rights historian. He is the author of the new book “New Prize for these Eyes: the Rise of America’s Second Civil Rights Movement.”

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