The real deal on Trump and Gaza

In his recent White House press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump laid out what appeared to be an audacious plan for Gaza: American control of the territory and the relocation of its Palestinian population.

While many focused on the boldness of this shocking proposal itself, they may be missing the more subtle diplomatic choreography at play.

"I play to people's fantasies," Trump wrote in "The Art of the Deal." "People may not always think big themselves, but they can get very excited by those who do. That is why a little hyperbole never hurts."

This philosophy, central to Trump's negotiating style, offers a crucial lens for understanding his latest attempt at peace in the Middle East.

The conventional interpretation sees Trump attempting to pressure Arab states like Egypt and Jordan into accepting Palestinian refugees. However, this fundamentally misreads both the regional dynamics and Trump's sophisticated negotiating approach.

Like a masterful real estate dealer, Trump is telling his apparent client — in this case, Israel — precisely what they want to hear while quietly advancing a different deal altogether. While Israeli leaders might believe Trump is cutting a deal with them while pressuring Arab states on their behalf, the reality appears to be the other way around.

Trump, perhaps one of the few world leaders who can match Netanyahu's political acumen, has shrewdly recognized and exploited the messianic tendencies of Israel's right wing, getting them to eat out the palm of his hand.

Trump's statements gathered euphoric responses from figures like Itamar Ben Gvir, who posted on X: “Donald, this looks like the beginning of a beautiful friendship,” or Israel Ganz, Chair of the Yesha council, who declared: “The Palestinian dream is over.”

But when he declared at the press conference that Saudi Arabia hadn't demanded Palestinian statehood, he knew exactly what he was doing, setting the stage for an entirely predictable Saudi response, which came swiftly — a clear assertion that "achieving lasting and just peace is impossible without the Palestinian people obtaining their legitimate rights."

The Saudi position has been remarkably consistent. Just days after Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7, 2021, Mohammed Alyahya wrote that during Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization discussions, "the whispers coming from the Israeli side suggested that Saudi Arabia was uninterested in the Palestinian issue — that it was a secondary problem for the kingdom, which prioritized its national security interests.” He said Saudi officials attempted to clarify their position “on the centrality of the Palestinian issue to the deal” but “that perception of Saudi indifference has unfortunately prevailed”

Alyahya, then a senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center and former editor-in-chief of Al Arabiya English, has since been elevated to advisor to the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, underlining the authority of his perspective.

Trump understands this reality. More importantly, he understands that the primary obstacle to regional agreements isn't Arab intransigence but Israeli domestic politics. By publicly embracing maximalist positions that resonate with Israel's right wing, Trump is methodically creating the political space Netanyahu will eventually need to accept more moderate compromises. It's a sophisticated diplomatic dance in which public theatrics enable private concessions.

We've seen this playbook before. During his first term, Trump preceded major diplomatic initiatives with grand gestures that pleased Israeli conservatives but had little meaning on the ground — moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights — before pursuing deals that required significant Israeli concessions.

The Abraham Accords, while historic, ultimately pushed Israel to abandon its West Bank annexation plans, a position its right wing had long championed.

Perhaps most notably, the agreements included Israeli acquiescence to a conceptual map drafted by then-senior advisor Jared Kushner outlining a potential Palestinian state — a dramatic departure from the Israeli right's long-standing opposition to Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu's government, despite its ideological resistance, found itself endorsing a framework that included precisely what it had vowed would never happen.

This pattern repeated with the recent cease-fire negotiations. Trump initially energized the Israeli right by warning that "all hell will break loose" if Gaza hostages weren't released before his inauguration. Yet once elected, he leveraged this political capital to broker a deal that included precisely what Israeli hardliners such as Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich had sought to avoid: the release of Palestinian prisoners with blood on their hands, a de facto end to the war and the unprecedented step of allowing foreign armed forces, American private contractors, to enforce Israeli security interests in Gaza.

The current moment echoes that pattern. Trump's seemingly outlandish proposal for American control of Gaza shouldn't be taken at face value. Instead, it's likely the opening act in a more complex diplomatic production. The real deal being shaped probably involves more modest population transfers, reconstruction zones, and crucially, Israeli concessions on settlements and Palestinian autonomy.

With Saudi Arabia reportedly prepared to invest $600 billion in Trump's "America First" agenda, the economic incentives for a regional grand bargain are substantial. While American pro-Israel donors like Miriam Adelson have demonstrated their substantial support with nine-figure contributions to Trump's campaign, the scale of potential Saudi investment in American infrastructure and industry represents a transformative economic opportunity.

However, unlocking this unprecedented level of investment will require Israeli compromise on Palestinian issues — precisely what Trump's theatrical maximalism may be designed to facilitate.

Those who dismiss Trump's negotiating style as erratic miss its underlying method. As he wrote, "I like thinking big. I always have." But the big thinking often serves as cover for more practical deal-making. In Gaza, Trump's grandest proposals may ultimately enable the more modest steps needed for regional stability.

The question isn't whether Trump's specific proposal for American control of Gaza is realistic — it almost certainly isn't. The question is whether this latest example of Trumpian hyperbole can help create the political conditions for the actual compromises needed to move forward. History suggests we shouldn't underestimate his ability to package difficult concessions in the wrapping of apparent triumph.

As the region grapples with Gaza's future, Trump's theatrical diplomacy may prove more calculated than it appears. Those seeking to understand his true intentions would do well to remember another maxim from "The Art of the Deal": "Sometimes, part of making a deal is denigrating your competition."

In this case, Trump's outlandish proposals may serve a subtle and counterintuitive purpose: by taking maximalist positions to the extreme, he could be deliberately undermining the credibility of his real competition to the “deal of the century” — his allies' own hardline stances.

Barak Sella is a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Middle East Initiative, the former executive director of the Reut Institute, and an expert on Israel-U.S. relations, World Jewry and the Middle East.

Topics

While Trump blathers about tariffs and Gaza, Musk is executing a coup d’état | John Naughton

Don’t be distracted by the president’s calculated bluster – it’s his unelected sidekick who’s taking over the US government. Way back in 2019, Steve Bannon, then a Trump consigliere , outlined in ...
The Guardian - 1h
Real Madrid in the UCL? Right now, Man City struggle to beat Leyton Orient

Real Madrid will hardly be trembling with fear when they watch Manchester City's laboured 2-1 win at Leyton Orient in the FA Cup.
ESPN - 1h
State Department announces $7B arms sale to Israel after Congress blocked initial deal

The Trump administration announced a $7 billion arms sale to Israel, including munitions and missiles, just days after Congress blocked an initial deal. The State Department said Friday that it ...
The Hill - 2h
Trudeau reportedly says Trump's talk of annexing Canada is "a real thing"

President Trump has repeatedly suggested Canada would be better off if it agreed to become the 51st U.S. state.
CBS News - 3h
AstraZeneca, Whitehall, and a failed £450m deal for the next generation in vaccines. What went wrong?

When the pharma firm cancelled plans for a major expansion of its Merseyside plant last month, there was no shortage of questions – or blame – over responsibility. At a tense meeting with senior ...
The Guardian - 3h
Exclusive discounts from CBS Mornings Deals

On this edition of CBS Mornings Deals, we show you items that might just become essentials in your everyday life. Visit cbsdeals.com to take advantage of these exclusive deals today. CBS earns ...
CBS News - 3h
USAID freeze risks 'deadly consequences' as work halts in Gaza, agencies warn

Aid agencies are sounding the alarm about Gaza after President Donald Trump suspended the U.S. Agency for International Development.
NBC News - 7h
‘The world wants more Britain’: David Lammy on Trump, tariffs, Gaza and the Chagos Islands

The foreign secretary’s diplomatic skills are being sorely tested as he seeks to turn his department into a global force. David Lammy was never a politician to mince his words. He has previously ...
The Guardian - 8h
A.I. Military Start-Up Anduril Close to Deal That Would Value It at $28 Billion

The Southern California start-up, which builds flying drones and missiles, is set to raise up to $2.5 billion.
The New York Times - 15h
Trump’s Gaza Plan Complicates Hoped-for Saudi-Israeli Deal

President Trump wants to broker normal ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but his proposal to transfer Palestinians out of Gaza just made that a lot harder.
The New York Times - 19h
Behind Closed Doors, Trudeau Says Trump Threat to Take Over Canada Is Real

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in a talk with business leaders, said Canada’s wealth of critical minerals are behind Mr. Trump’s comments about making its northern neighbor a U.S. state.
The New York Times - 20h
OpenAI Close to Deal that Values Company at $300 Billion

The Japanese conglomerate SoftBank would invest up to $40 billion in the maker of the chatbot ChatGPT.
The New York Times - 21h
USAID Turmoil Threatens Key Aid Supplies to Gaza, Officials Say

Washington has funded roughly a third of the aid sent to the enclave since the war began. With most agency workers set to be put on leave, officials say that those supplies are under threat.
The New York Times - 1d
14 Best Deals on Valentine’s Day Gifts (2025)

We found good deals on utterly giftable WIRED-approved gadgets.
Wired - 1d
Panama's president rejects U.S. claim of a deal for free canal passage

Panama's president says the State Department's claim of an agreement granting U.S. warships free canal passage was "based on a falsity. And that's intolerable."
CBS News - 1d
Trump’s Gaza Takeover Plan May Sound Death Knell for the Two-State Solution

Already unlikely, the prospects for creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel could vanish altogether if the United States takes over Gaza and displaces the population, as President Trump ...
The New York Times - 1d
Trump Met PGA Tour Commissioner About Saudi Golf League Deal

Tour officials said the session at the White House “brought us closer to a final deal” that would be subject to Justice Department antitrust scrutiny.
The New York Times - 1d
Trump’s Vision for Gaza Shifts Away From a Cease-Fire Deal

President Trump’s grandiose plans for the enclave left out any ideas for advancing the cease-fire talks.
The New York Times - 1d
Friday Briefing: Trump Digs in on Gaza Takeover

Plus, the complex patterns in whale songs.
The New York Times - 1d
Ryan Day’s New Ohio State Deal Includes $80.5M Buyout

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day had his contract extended through the 2031 season with a salary increase that averages $12.5 million in annual compensation, the school announced on Thursday. The ...
Yahoo Sports - 1d
Trump Digs In on Gaza Takeover and Palestinian Resettlement

Aides had sought to walk back the president’s proposal, which drew condemnations. Israel’s defense minister said its military would draft plans for Gazans who wished to leave.
The New York Times - 2d
How RaMell Ross made best picture nominee 'Nickel Boys' as 'visceral' as real life

In our first episode back after the Oscar nominations, we chat with 'Nickel Boys' filmmaker RaMell Ross and costume designer Arianne Phillips of 'A Complete Unknown.'
Los Angeles Times - 2d
Real Madrid vs. Atletico prediction, odds, start time: Feb. 8, 2025 picks, best bets by proven soccer expert

Betting expert Jon Eimer has locked in his best bets for Saturday's Madrid Derby 2025 between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid
CBS Sports - 3h
Israel begins mass release of prisoners after Gaza hostages freed

Yahoo News - 4h
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid live stream: Where to watch Madrid Derby online, TV channel, start time

How will Real Madrid cope with a week of two of the biggest games this season, while facing an injury crisis?
CBS Sports - 5h
Show strength and offer a win: experts’ tips for Starmer on dealing with Trump

Veterans of May and Johnson governments share lessons from their experiences with unpredictable US president. It was just a few mangled sentences spoken in the darkness on an airport tarmac. But ...
The Guardian - 8h
Trump wants to wipe out Gaza’s history. Saving its mosques and churches would defy him | Raja Shehadeh

The US president’s real-estate fantasies rely on the erasure of Gaza’s people and culture. Now we must act to preserve them. It might already be too late to save the homes where many of the people ...
The Guardian - 10h
'A real fighter' - how Simeone's son emerged as key to Atletico

"He's a real fighter" - how Giuliano Simeone has become integral to his father's plans at Atletico Madrid.
BBC News - 10h
NBA trade tracker: Every deadline deal as Jimmy Butler, Brandon Ingram, De'Aaron Fox find new homes

Here's a look at every notable NBA trade that went down before Thursday's deadline
CBS Sports - 18h
Directors’ Deals: US deal sparks Fever-Tree buying

Share price rises 20 per cent as the tie-up is announced
Financial Times - 23h
‘In a real sense, US democracy has died’: how Trump is emulating Hungary’s Orbán

Trump has moved to gut the federal government, fire critics and reward allies – a path similar to ‘would-be dictators’ like Orbán, experts say. A pitiless crackdown on on illegal immigration. A ...
The Guardian - 1d
Trump's Gaza plan shocks the world but finds support in Israel

President Donald Trump’s plan to seek U.S. ownership of the Gaza Strip and move out its population has found a sympathetic ear in Israel
ABC News - 1d
Inside Trump’s Hastily Written Proposal to ‘Own’ Gaza

Although the president had been talking about the idea for weeks, there had been no meetings on the subject, and senior members of his government were taken by surprise.
The New York Times - 1d
Trump’s Gaza Plan Has Many Pitfalls, Hamas Among the Biggest

President Trump’s proposal to “own” Gaza and transfer its population elsewhere has stirred condemnation and sarcasm, but it is an opening bid and could disrupt a tired diplomatic paradigm.
The New York Times - 2d
Guatemala gives Rubio a second deportation deal for migrants being sent home from the US

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo says his country will accept migrants from other countries who are being deported from the United States
ABC News - 2d
Trump's comments on Gaza draw backlash as Palestinians return home after ceasefire

President Trump drew backlash when he suggested the United States should take control of the Gaza Strip and move Palestinians out during a news conference with the Israeli prime minister at the ...
CBS News - 2d
Guatemala strikes deal with Rubio to accept migrants from other countries deported from the US

Guatemala’s president says his country will accept migrants from other countries being deported from the United States
ABC News - 2d
Jeremy Bowen: Trump's Gaza plan won't happen, but it will have consequences

The US president creates uncertainty and injects more instability, our international editor writes.
BBC News - 2d
'I won't leave. Put that in your brain.' Palestinians reject Trump's call to expel them from Gaza

Stunned Palestinians rejected President Donald Trump's proposal to expel them from the Gaza Strip so that the U.S. could take over the territory and rebuild it for others
ABC News - 2d