The Memo: Trump, Biden brace for debate that could reshape White House race
![The Memo: Trump, Biden brace for debate that could reshape White House race](https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/06/debate-stanage_AP.jpg?w=900)
ATLANTA — The stage is set, literally, for the biggest moment in the presidential campaign to date.
President Biden and former President Trump will meet here Thursday evening for a debate that could reshape a race in which the former president holds a small lead over the incumbent.
Biden and Trump, standing at lecterns just 8 feet apart, will debate without an audience, faced only by CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The rules of the debate call for the muting of each candidate’s microphone while the other is speaking.
The impulse on CNN’s part is plainly to avoid a repetition of the chaotic first debate between Biden and Trump in 2020, which cast plenty of heat but little light. It remains to be seen whether the effort to assert order will be successful.
Trump limbered up for the debate Wednesday with a social media post alleging that Biden is “a walking LYING MACHINE.” The Biden campaign released a new TV ad the previous day claiming Trump is “focused on revenge” and “only out for himself” while Biden “is fighting for your family.”
On Wednesday afternoon, the debate site’s cavernous spin room — housed in an arena that usually plays host to Georgia Tech basketball games — was empty except for a scattering of television production staff. Security was already conspicuous on the streets outside, where temperatures climbed into the mid-90s.
Trump and Biden are not expected to arrive in Atlanta until Thursday. The stakes of their debate were underlined by events in the wider political world.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule any day now on Trump’s claim of immunity from prosecution for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
On Wednesday, the court delivered a win for the Biden administration when it upheld the government’s right to warn social media companies about posts that it considers misinformation. A separate judgment was posted, briefly and apparently in error, on an abortion-related case.
Meanwhile, a new poll from Quinnipiac University showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Biden nationally, 49 percent to 45 percent.
The margin in the new poll is bigger than most. Trump’s edge in the national polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) stands at 1.2 percentage points.
Trump also leads the DDHQ polling average in five of the six battleground states that are likely to determine the election’s outcome. Polling has typically underestimated Trump’s support in past elections, so it’s easy to see why betting markets have the former president as the favorite to prevail in November.
Those dynamics surely played a part in Biden’s willingness to debate at such an early point in the election cycle. Thursday’s debate is significantly earlier than any other in the television era.
A strong night for the 81-year-old Biden would ease concerns over his age and mental acuity — worries that extend to plenty of Democratic voters, according to polls.
Biden loyalists believe he can also bend the polling curve by tying Trump as closely as possible to the 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, warning that the former president is a danger to American democracy and casting his opponent as a selfish figure, uninterested in solving voters’ problems.
Each side is also seeking to set the news agenda in the final hours before the debate.
The Biden campaign held a press conference at the Georgia state capitol on Wednesday afternoon. The headline attraction was former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), who had endorsed Biden for reelection only hours before.
At the campaign event, Kinzinger was joined by former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) and Harry Dunn, a former U.S. Capitol Police officer who was on duty on Jan. 6, 2021. Dunn lost a Democratic House primary in Maryland’s 3rd District last month.
Kinzinger contended that conscientious Republicans should set aside policy disagreements with Biden and vote Democratic this year in what he contends is “actually … the most important election of our lifetime.”
“There is a fight for democracy that, if we don’t buckle down and take seriously, we could easily lose,” Kinzinger warned.
Back in Washington, senior Republicans including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) amplified a Tuesday report from a GOP-led House subcommittee that reraised the infamous issue of Hunter Biden’s laptop.
The report centered on an October 2020 open letter from 51 former senior intelligence officials that sought to cast the then-recent discovery of the laptop as having “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”
The House subcommittee report contends that “high ranking CIA officials, up to and including then-CIA Director Gina Haspel, were made aware of the Hunter Biden statement prior to its approval and publication” — and that some of its signatories “were on active contract with the CIA at the time.”
Johnson said this amounts to new “irrefutable evidence that those connected with the Biden campaign directed an influence operation against American voters, just weeks before the 2020 election.”
Within the Trump camp, there is a keen appetite for Thursday’s debate, which aides believe the former president can use to expose Biden’s vulnerabilities, politically and personally.
Trump, though only three years younger than Biden, contends he is far more vigorous. Polls show that concerns about Trump’s age are fairly widespread, but less so than is the case with Biden.
Trump advisers also believe the debate can cast a harsh light on Biden’s record on inflation and immigration, in particular.
Inflation has fallen roughly two-thirds from its June 2022 peak of 9.1 percent, but the pain of that earlier period inflicted a political wound for Biden that has yet to heal.
The Trump campaign’s top figures, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, wrote in a Wednesday memo that Biden would enter the debate “desperate to distract from the sputtering economy and open border.”
Trump, they promised, “looks forward to presenting his vision for a prosperous, safe and secure America.”
Yet, in the same memo, they also sought to dull the effect of any references from Biden to Trump’s recent conviction for 34 felonies.
In a race so close, in a nation so divided, any unscripted dramatic moment could have huge ramifications.
Thursday’s debate might provide it.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
Date: | |
Tag: | Joe Biden |
Filter
-
Financial Times - Business
Who is winning the White House race — Biden or Trump?
With just over four months to go, the US presidential contest is tightJoe Biden -
The Hill - Politics
White House, Biden campaign slam replacement chatter after debate
President Biden’s campaign aides and top surrogates scrambled Friday to shut down talk he might drop out of the race following a disastrous showing at a debate with former President Trump. A campaign official dismissed talk of Biden withdrawing, ...Joe Biden -
The New York Times - Top stories
The White House Brushed Off Questions About Biden’s Age. Then the Debate Happened.
President Biden’s allies can no longer wave away concerns about his capacity after his unsteady performance at Thursday’s debate as worries among Democrats grow.Joe Biden -
MarketWatch - Business
Bond market participants brace for bigger deficits under either Trump or Biden
One of the top takeaways from Thursday night’s televised debate between President Joe Biden and his Republican challenger Donald Trump is that the U.S. faces little prospect of any fiscal restraint in the years ahead no matter who wins the Nov. 5 ...Joe Biden -
The Wall Street Journal - World
Democrats Fret Over Whether Biden's Debate Performance Will Cost House, Senate Races
Down-ballot candidates and aides are trying to sort through whether the performance has sapped the party’s goals of retaining the Senate and flipping the House.Joe Biden -
The Hill - Politics
The Memo: The debate that changed everything
ATLANTA — Never before has a debate transformed a presidential race so utterly. The idea of replacing President Biden as his party’s 2024 nominee has become Topic A in national politics; former President Trump has advanced from a slight to heavy ... -
MarketWatch - Business
Housing prices are at record highs, but Biden and Trump largely skipped over the issue at the debate
Americans are facing the most expensive housing market in decades, but neither presidential candidate addressed the affordability crisis in detail on Thursday.Joe Biden -
The Hill - Politics
Why Trump wants Biden to stay in the race
If you are Team Trump, the last thing you want to see is “a knight in shining armor” riding into the convention in Chicago to “save” the Democratic Party.Joe Biden -
The Hill - Politics
White House to hold conference for digital creators
The Biden administration will host digital creators at the White House for the first-ever Creator Economy Conference in August, the director of digital strategy announced Friday. The conference, which will be held Aug. 14, will bring together ... -
Financial Times - Business
How the Conservatives came to the brink of wipeout
The party risks learning the wrong lessons from a historic defeat
More from The Hill
-
The Hill - Politics
Utah governor doubts Kinzinger, Cheney 'changing hearts and minds'
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) said that he thinks former Reps. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), two Republicans who are often critical of former President Trump, aren’t “changing hearts and minds.” “I don’t know that they’re changing ... -
The Hill - Politics
Biden campaign says debate 'did not change the horse race'
President Biden’s campaign said in a memo Saturday that his poor showing in Thursday night's presidential debate “did not change the horse race.” “Flash polls from CNN, 538, SurveyUSA, Morning Consult, and Data for Progress show what we expected: ...Joe Biden -
The Hill - Politics
Beryl strengthens into first hurricane of 2024 Atlantic season. Here’s what you should know
Hurricane Beryl became a hurricane Saturday, the first of the 2024 Atlantic season, according to discussions from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). “Beryl continues to rapidly strengthen, and has now become a hurricane,” the NHC said in a ... -
The Hill - Politics
Ex-Trump official lauds Supreme Court ruling on Jan. 6 riot cases: 'Absolutely right'
Former Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker (R) said that the Supreme Court was “absolutely right” in blocking the Justice Department (DOJ) from charging Jan. 6 rioters with obstruction. Whitaker, who served as former President Trump’s Acting ...Donald Trump -
The Hill - Politics
Haley urges Trump to prepare for younger rival after Biden debate chaos
Former GOP presidential primary candidate Nikki Haley urged former President Trump in a Wall Street Journal article published Saturday to get ready to face a younger rival following a problematic debate performance from President Biden. “They are ...Joe Biden