The lessons from Ukraine that no one wants to learn
Within 24 hours of the tense Oval Office exchange between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was ready to put “boots on the ground” in Ukraine. Such a sharp reversal of policy is shocking enough, but Starmer’s words speak to a more profound truth about this conflict — and war in general.
Despite NATO supplying Kyiv with sophisticated lethal military equipment for the last 18 months, it took more than a decade of Russian occupation and hundreds of thousands of casualties to reach this point. Moreover, it seems that if the Western world wants to repel imperialists, it may need to send its own soldiers to do so. American strategy has long recognized this inconvenient truth.
Every major war in which the U.S. participated between 1945 and 2001 was in defense of another nation’s territorial integrity, and none of those nations were NATO members. When North Korean forces crossed the 38th parallel to invade their southern neighbor in June 1950, President Harry Truman sent the Eighth Army to push them back.
Despite Gen. Douglas MacArthur’s desire for total victory in Korea, the Truman administration believed such a war might trigger a nuclear exchange with the Soviet Union, which had just tested its first atomic bomb. In turn, limiting Washington’s goals to repelling the attack seemed logical — and it worked.
When North Vietnam threatened South Vietnam in the 1960s, President Lyndon Johnson sent divisions there to contain the North Vietnamese Army, degrade the Vietcong and reaffirm national borders. Nearly 60,000 Americans died pursuing these unrealized objectives.
When Iraq’s Saddam Hussein tried to annex Kuwait in 1990, President George H.W. Bush had the U.S. military decimate the Iraqi Army, thus securing America’s leading role in a post-Soviet world. Like in Korea, this was a limited war in which the U.S. did not seek to topple Saddam’s regime militarily but rather deny him his territorial objectives.
In contrast, when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the U.S. and NATO not only failed to intervene directly, but also spent years debating whether they should even furnish Ukraine with the weapons it needed to defend itself. President Barack Obama’s administration feared escalation and the potential reversal of diplomatic inroads it was paving with Moscow. The “Russian reset,” which began in 2009 by canceling President George W. Bush’s plan for a missile shield in Eastern Europe, aimed to improve U.S.-Russia relations.
Ukraine received a $53 million aid package from the U.S. in September 2014 that included body armor and night-vision goggles, but no weapons. A June 2015 poll showed that only 41 percent of Europeans supported sending arms to Ukraine, and 30 percent opposed even lending economic aid. President Donald Trump’s first administration authorized shipping Javelin antitank missiles in 2017, but by that time the annexation of a strategic landmass the size of Massachusetts had come and gone with little resistance from the Western world.
President Vladimir Putin got the message. When Russia invaded Ukraine yet again in 2022, this time aiming for the capital, the Biden administration slow-walked critical aid for years while prohibiting Ukraine from striking inside Russia’s borders to avoid escalation. Ukraine fired its first U.S.-provided ballistic missiles into Russia in late November 2024, 33 months after the invasion — a period three times longer than the U.S. military spent conducting major operations in Europe during World War II.
Such incrementalism led to operational stagnation and overlooked what some analysts consider the “real crux” of Ukraine’s war effort: a lack of manpower. Even a Korea-type policy of denial that pushes Russian forces back to its 2022 borders appears increasingly unlikely without a significant surge in ground forces, something Kyiv itself has been reluctant to entertain. And herein lies the problem.
Whether or not Russia and Ukraine reach a negotiated settlement in the coming months, the refusal to send weapons or troops to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity from the very start reflects a seismic shift in U.S. foreign policy since 1945 — a shift felt across party lines that predates the ongoing shakeup under the Trump administration.
The hardest lesson to learn from the war in Ukraine is that there is still no substitute for allies who show up when the fighting begins. Russian nuclear deterrence made that once-clear choice politically untenable for NATO’s leaders, who must now choose between three unappealing options against a dug-in Russian army: negotiate a fragile peace; maintain the status quo and wish for the best; or stare down Moscow’s nuclear saber-rattling in Ukraine.
Hopes of outlasting Russia in a land war through weapons shipments, sanctions and public relations campaigns emerged in part from Ukraine’s impressive combat performance. This belief, however, might also be attributed to the alluring myth that the “butcher’s bill” for a major war in Europe could simply be redirected to someone else’s table. Perhaps this is the first illusion to die as Europe and America revisit their assumptions about deterrence and defense in the 21st century.
Maj. Michael P. Ferguson, U.S. Army, is a Ph.D. student at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and coauthor of “The Military Legacy of Alexander the Great: Lessons for the Information Age.” His views as expressed here do not necessarily reflect official policies or positions of the Army or the Department of Defense.
-
Darnold to apply lessons from disastrous '24 finish
New Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is hoping to apply the lessons he learned from the disappointing end to his 2024 season, when he unraveled in two straight losses.ESPN - 4d -
The Guardian view on Covid-19, five years on: lessons still to be learned | Editorial
Though many would rather forget the pandemic, we are living with its consequences. Are we any better prepared for the next one?. “When asked what was the biggest disaster of the twentieth century, ...The Guardian - 4d -
Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic 5 years later
Five years ago Tuesday, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. CBS News digital reporter Alex Tin explains the lessons the government and public health officials learned.CBS News - 6d -
From Hobby to Hustle: My Startup’s First Dollar Story
Four lessons this founder learned to go from $1 to $14 million.Inc. - Mar. 10 -
Want to Be Remarkably Successful? What You Must Know From Bill Gates’s New Book
Gates’s recently published ‘Source Code’ has one extraordinary lesson that’s applicable to anyone who wants to master a skill.Inc. - 11h -
Can Florida loss be Missouri basketball’s last lesson? Where MU stands after SEC Tournament
Missouri basketball's loss to Florida ended its SEC Tournament bid. Now, with the NCAA Tournament up next, have the Tigers learned the necessary lessons?Yahoo Sports - 3d -
5 years on, what we learned from the COVID pandemic response
It's been five years since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, driving billions of people indoors and killing more than a million people in the U.S. Dr. Jon LaPook examines what lessons we can ...CBS News - 3d -
U.S. soccer is learning more from SheBelieves Cup loss than it would have from a win
A U.S. women's national team loss to a formidable Japan in the SheBelieves Cup final taught a American young squad some critical lessons.Yahoo Sports - Mar. 11 -
Abbott on learning from 'one of the best defences in the Premier League'
Eighteen-year-old Forest centre-back Zach Abbott says he is enjoying learning from "one of the best defences in the Premier League". The England Under-19 international made his senior debut for ...Yahoo Sports - 4d
More from The Hill
-
Carville on Schumer CR vote: ‘This might turn out to be a wiser decision than people think’
Democratic strategist James Carville weighed in on Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s (N.Y.) decision to vote in favor of the House GOP-led continuing resolution, saying it might turn out to ...The Hill - 1h -
Tudor Dixon considering bid for Senate, Michigan governor
Republican businesswoman and conservative commentator Tudor Dixon is considering a run for political office in Michigan, either for the U.S. Senate or Governor, again, and has praised President ...The Hill - 1h -
Bessent reveals how Trump will decide reciprocal tariffs
President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could go well beyond matching import taxes imposed on U.S. goods by other nations, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday. In an interview, Bessent said ...The Hill - 1h -
Republican files impeachment against judge who ruled against Trump deportations
Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) introduced a resolution to impeach U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, who over the weekend ordered the Trump administration to halt deportations of Venezuelans whom it ...The Hill - 1h -
Israel is driving a revival of Arab solidarity
In a striking historical parallel, the country that once divided the Arabs is now, through its policies and actions, bringing them together.The Hill - 1h
More in Politics
-
Carville on Schumer CR vote: ‘This might turn out to be a wiser decision than people think’
Democratic strategist James Carville weighed in on Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s (N.Y.) decision to vote in favor of the House GOP-led continuing resolution, saying it might turn out to ...The Hill - 1h -
Tudor Dixon considering bid for Senate, Michigan governor
Republican businesswoman and conservative commentator Tudor Dixon is considering a run for political office in Michigan, either for the U.S. Senate or Governor, again, and has praised President ...The Hill - 1h -
Bessent reveals how Trump will decide reciprocal tariffs
President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could go well beyond matching import taxes imposed on U.S. goods by other nations, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday. In an interview, Bessent said ...The Hill - 1h -
Republican files impeachment against judge who ruled against Trump deportations
Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) introduced a resolution to impeach U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, who over the weekend ordered the Trump administration to halt deportations of Venezuelans whom it ...The Hill - 1h -
Israel is driving a revival of Arab solidarity
In a striking historical parallel, the country that once divided the Arabs is now, through its policies and actions, bringing them together.The Hill - 1h