Texas, Florida, Arizona and Idaho likely to gain House seats after 2030 census

Texas, Florida, Arizona and Idaho are likely to gain House seats after the 2030 census, according to consulting firm Election Data Services.

A gain of two congressional seats would be seen in Texas and Florida, and one seat each in Arizona and Idaho, if congressional reapportionment were being ”held today,” the firm said in a Friday press release. That is based on population estimates for 2024 from the U.S. Census Bureau.

California would lose two seats, while Illinois, Minnesota, New York and Oregon would see the loss of one seat in the case of apportionment being held right now, according to those population estimates, the firm said.

Seats being lost in places like New York and California, some of the biggest states in the U.S. by population, could also be a risk for Democrats. The Empire State and Golden State are currently considered left-leaning strongholds that have been key to Democratic victories and power in recent years.

The increase in seats in the commonly right-leaning four states would be beneficial for Republicans, who have a narrow majority in the House. At the beginning of next year, the House is set to be almost evenly divided between Democrats and the GOP, with Republicans only leading by two seats, 217-215.

In an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier that aired earlier this month, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was asked about a report from The New York Times about the Speaker soon having to deal with a slim Republican majority in the lower chamber.

“Look, we’re excited about this. We’ve demonstrated already that we can govern with a small majority,” Johnson responded. “And, I’m very confident that we can check the boxes and get this agenda done, and [it’ll be] very aggressive beginning right out of the gate.”

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