Star search: Finding the next Democratic presidential contender

As Democrats search for a path forward, one solution, albeit a daunting one, stands out: They need a bona fide superstar.

Since 1980, charismatic, larger-than-life figures like Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump have dominated the presidential stage. These rock-star candidates combined telegenic appeal with cultural resonance — and, more importantly, they won. The exceptions — George H.W. Bush and Joe Biden — were elected under special circumstances, and both served a single term.

The advice to find a superstar might sound like a frustratingly simplistic answer, akin to telling an NFL team to “just draft a Tom Brady or a Patrick Mahomes.” It’s easier said than done. Truly exceptional political talents are as rare as generational athletes, and, to paraphrase former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, we go to war with the candidates we have, not the ones we wish we had.

This reality humbles political operatives who pour time, talent and treasure into campaigns. Yes, the ground game, fundraising and messaging matter — especially in tight contests. But history shows that charisma and star power usually overshadow the intricacies of a campaign. The right candidate with that indefinable factor can dazzle the public and all but ensure victory.

To borrow from sports again, the analogy to NFL quarterbacks is instructive. On “The Herd,” Fox Sports host Colin Cowherd recently declared, “Get the quarterback right. That’s 70 percent.” When asked how to identify the right quarterback, Cowherd replied, “There’s got to be a ‘wow’ factor.”

The same principle applies to presidential candidates. That “wow” factor is hard to define, but easy to spot. Reagan, Clinton, Dubya, Obama and Trump had it in abundance; their opponents, for the most part, did not. For example, Vice President Kamala Harris, despite occasional flashes of inspiration (like her “Say it to my face!” moment challenging Trump to debate), struggled to deliver a sustained “wow” performance.

Charisma is often dismissed as superficial — a symptom of a culture that prizes entertainment over substance. But it matters. It helps leaders weather scandals, rally public support and push through bold agendas. In a media-saturated world, it’s a prerequisite for cutting through the noise.

Despite this knowledge, we continue to spend an inordinate amount of time discussing things — policy preferences and ideological struggles, fundraising, campaign stops at a Pizza Ranch in Iowa, etc. — that barely affect election outcomes.

Along those same lines, Trump’s victory might paradoxically cause Democrats to obsessively rethink their policies, infrastructure or leadership hierarchy, as if that was what cost them the 2024 election. While those adjustments are important to govern effectively, they won’t solve the bigger problem for Democrats in 2028. They should instead heed author Stephen Covey’s advice to “keep the main thing the main thing.” Democrats’ main challenge isn’t beating Trump again but finding their next rising star.

Easier said than done. Democratic governors like Gavin Newsom of California and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois may seem like plausible contenders, but they carry baggage that makes them unlikely to excite a restless electorate. Similarly, while figures like Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.), Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (Mich.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) and Gov. Josh Shapiro (Pa.) have much to recommend them, none have conclusively demonstrated that elusive star power.

You either have it, or you don’t. That’s not to say that politicians can’t improve. But, generally speaking, you’re better off drafting an up-and-coming star than trying to gussy up a veteran player who has taken some hits and failed to dominate.

The best candidates often emerge unexpectedly from outside the establishment. They authentically connect with everyday Americans, defy conventional norms and capture the zeitgeist. Democrats might be better off eschewing the usual suspects and instead embracing someone who doesn’t feel like a career politician — possibly even a celebrity with cultural credibility.

The good news is that Democrats have time to find their quarterback for 2028. But the sooner they accept that charisma and star power are prerequisites for winning in our era, the sooner they can start scouting for the talent they need to lead them to victory.

Matt K. Lewis is a columnist, podcaster and author of the books “Too Dumb to Fail” and “Filthy Rich Politicians.”

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