Send Putin a message using our defense agreements with Sweden, Finland

Earlier this week, two Russian Tupolev TU-95 (“Bear”) strategic nuclear bombers flew over the Bering and Chuki Seas near the Alaska coastline. The Russian Defense Ministry disingenuously described their activity as “a scheduled flight over neutral waters.”

The Bear is an ancient bomber, originally put into use seven decades ago, and is hardly a real threat to the U.S. — or, for that matter, to Canada. Nevertheless, despite its advanced age, and however routine the flight may have been, the timing during the interval between the presidential election and Trump’s inauguration surely was meant to signal Russia’s ongoing ability to threaten the American homeland — and possibly also to reinforce Trump’s inclination to press Ukraine to agree to a deal that ends the war. Whatever Moscow’s motive, it is time Washington returned the favor, though not necessarily in the same manner.

During the 1980s, the U.S. Navy spearheaded NATO’s Ocean Safari series of ever-larger exercises in the Norwegian Sea which, as former Secretary of the Navy John Lehman relates in his memoirs, “confounded and humiliated the Soviet naval and air defenses.” In theory, the Navy and NATO could “confound” Russian planners as they did their Soviet predecessors.

But times and circumstances have changed since then. America’s naval forces are stretched thin confronting Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea and a Houthi threat in the Red Sea, in addition to Mediterranean operations supporting Israel and maintaining a credible presence while the Ukraine war rages on.

Nonetheless, Sweden and Finland’s recent accession to NATO offers the U.S. and its allies a new vector to complicate the work of Russian military planners. The Baltic Sea is no longer the “Soviet lake” that it was during the Cold War. The three Baltic states, once part of the USSR, are now members of NATO. Poland, once a Warsaw Pact member, is now as staunch and active NATO ally. And East Germany, a key force in the Baltic region as well on Europe’s central front, no longer exists.

Geographically, the Baltic has become a “NATO lake.” In military terms, however, NATO has yet to field a sufficiently powerful capability that would become a cause for serious Russian concern.

Traditionally, the U.S. Marine Corps has been the most active American force in the Nordic region. Since 1982, Marines have been pre-stocking equipment in Norway, probably enough to support a Marine expeditionary brigade. Small Marine units have also been exercising with Swedish Marines since 2018.

On Dec. 5, 2023, Sweden and the U.S. signed a defense cooperation agreement that enables American forces to access and pre-stock equipment at 17 Swedish military facilities. The agreement was signed after Sweden had applied for NATO membership, but four months before it actually joined the alliance. Two weeks later, Finland, which had already joined NATO in April 2023, signed a nearly identical agreement with the U.S. that gives American forces access and pre-stocking capability at 18 military facilities.

The willingness of both Sweden and Finland to host American forces and equipment on their territory is a major development that has yet to be fully exploited. Since the Marines already pre-stock equipment in Norway, it would be natural for them to do the same in the newest NATO allies. Moreover, the two agreements create an opportunity for a constant Marine presence in the Baltic region. Indeed, earlier this year, that was exactly what Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin promised his Baltic NATO allies.

Russia has stepped up its hybrid operations against NATO, but especially against the smaller northern allies. Moreover, its aggression against Ukraine has led many observers to conclude that if Moscow emerges victorious from that war, its next target would be one or more of the Baltic states. An upgraded Marine presence in the region would demonstrate that America’s commitment to those allies is more than just verbal.

Marine exercises in the Baltic Sea that are constant and larger, as opposed to intermittent and smaller, would demonstrate NATO’s ability not only to threaten the Russian exclave Kaliningrad, but also St. Petersburg. Russian President Vladimir Putin hails from that city and is devoted to it. Any such threat would be certain to command Putin’s attention and worry, and that would not be a bad thing at all.

Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.

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