Seizing the moment: A US strategy to outmaneuver Russia in Syria

Most strategies are about having long time horizons and patience. But timeliness, flexibility and rapidity can be a strategy in and of itself.

The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria presents a rare opportunity for America to act. But President-elect Trump has written that “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

Unfortunately, there are a number of second-and third-order effects should the United States and its allies passively let events unfold. In fact, if the U.S. acts decisively now, advantageous strategic conditions can be established in the Middle East and Eastern Europe that highly favor U.S. national interests.

The U.S. — in conjunction with allies and partners — can help Syrian rebels form an institutionally strong state while putting Russian naval and air bases in Syria at risk of falling into rebel hands. This has at least two advantages.

First, it would give the U.S. leverage against Russia in Ukraine to give Putin a strategic dilemma: Make a deal in Ukraine or lose two strategic bases in the Mediterranean. Second, helping the Syrians reconstruct a stable state and effect a political solution to their situation would remove the need for U.S. troops on the ground.

Besides ensuring that the battlespace is not ceded to transnational terrorists and extremist factions, this specific line of effort supports Trump’s long-standing goal of reducing the American military footprint in Syria and Iraq.

The uncertain state of play in Syria has significant implications for Russia: Both bases in Syria are crucial for Russia's power projection across the Mediterranean, which directly impacts the force posture of NATO members in the region. The potential loss of these strategic bases would severely undercut Russian military capability, credibility, and its ability to deploy private military contractors across Africa.

Additionally, there are reportedly thousands of encircled Russian troops currently unable to evacuate from a number of forward bases around Syria. Such a situation allows the U.S. to act decisively and tip the balance of power against both Iran and Russia especially as Syrian rebels have made clear their dislike of Iran and their proxy Hezbollah.

The U.S., European allies and neighboring countries have an opportunity to finance, mentor and advise Syrian rebel leaders committed to building effective governance structures while keeping Iranian and Russian influence at bay.

The Jordanians, Iraqis, Saudis and Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and others can provide essential support on the ground to prevent Syria from becoming Libya 2.0 where victorious rebel groups splinter the country into lawless fiefdoms because they cannot find mutually beneficial power-sharing agreements. Engaging with Syrian rebel commanders, neighboring Middle Eastern countries and European allies will be crucial in mediating a healthy post-conflict Syrian state.

However, several challenges must be navigated carefully. The main Syrian rebel group, Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led most military operations that toppled the Assad regime. While HTS has expressed a willingness for a peaceful resolution, their past association with extremist ideologies requires careful handling and consideration. Hence, United Nations leadership has already called for reconsideration of the terrorist designation of HTS, which would legally permit countries to work with the new Syrian leadership.

Aiding Syrian groups committed to building robust institutions and an effective state while isolating extremist elements will be critical for long-term stability. Humanitarian assistance should focus on ensuring all legitimate Syrian actors are involved in the political solution and aiding Syria's neighboring countries and addressing the ongoing humanitarian crisis, to include facilitating the resettlement of refugees and their well-being.

The urgency is clear: If the U.S. does not act swiftly, Putin may negotiate a deal with the rebels that preserves his two bases and personnel in Syria, removing that potential pressure point. At this moment, Syrian opposition leaders have committed to ensuring the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic facilities within Syria, but the situation is tense and there’s no telling how long this guarantee might last.

The Americans and Europeans have an exceptional opportunity to outmaneuver Putin, who is often viewed as a master strategist but has proved to be merely an adept opportunist.

Acknowledging this situation means recognizing this as another theater of great power competition, where significant decisions must be made to undermine adversaries like Russia. Hence, Western leaders should also negotiate and leverage Russia’s de facto bases in Taboruk and elsewhere in Libya, under similar duress — as Putin may accept his losses in Syria and shift everything to Libya.

The fall of the Assad regime means the U.S. can reshape the strategic landscape in Syria and beyond. Acting decisively now can undermine Russia's and Iran's positions in the Middle East and strengthen U.S. and European influence in the region. This strategic move requires timeliness, flexibility and a willingness to embrace the complexities of modern geopolitical competition.

Now is the time to act to dismantle Russian military power in the region and stabilize the region.

G. Alexander Crowther, Ph.D., is a retired Army strategist and a nonresident senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis. U.S. Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek, Ph.D. is a military professor in the National Security Affairs department at the U.S. Naval War College, a fellow at the European Resilience Initiative Center and fellow at the Payne Institute for Public Policy.

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