Republicans want to repeal Biden’s climate legacy. Good luck with that.

Over the past month, President Trump has used funding pauses and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to systematically target climate initiatives by the federal government. But in order to go further, the Trump administration will have to turn to Congress for help. At stake: hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy tax credits from the Biden administration’s signature Inflation Reduction Act.

Trump and his fellow Republicans plan on using the budget reconciliation process to ram a party-line bill, stuffed with Republican priorities, through Congress. But when it comes to repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, warning signs are popping up everywhere.

Just last month, in a nondescript hearing room on Capitol Hill, something unexpected started to happen: House Republicans speaking up in defense of the Inflation Reduction Act. Two years ago, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) voted against the law, calling it a bill “filled with partisan priorities.” But last month at the House Ways and Means Committee, she praised parts of the bill, indicating that she supports most of its major clean energy tax initiatives.

“Prematurely repealing these tax credits would jeopardize the private investments and economic benefits they are delivering,” said Miller-Meeks. She went on to urge her colleagues to “take a thoughtful approach" and "refine and improve" the law's energy provisions "in a way that promotes market certainty and continues to incentivize a comprehensive energy strategy.”

The Inflation Reduction Act was not a bipartisan bill. Muscled through Congress by congressional Democrats, it squeaked through the Senate with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris. Not a single Republican in either chamber voted for the bill, which included approximately $369 billion-worth of tax credits, loans and grants to help combat climate change. Trump has railed against the bill, calling it the “green scam.”

So why the about-face from Republicans like Miller-Meeks? Perhaps because over the last two years, more than three-quarters of private green energy investment spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act has flowed into Republican-held congressional districts. That’s over $300 billion to support good jobs, local tax revenues and ribbon-cutting ceremonies. So it’s no surprise that the law’s Republican defenders represent many of the same districts that have benefited most from it.

Using an analysis of Inflation Reduction Act funding flows, district competitiveness and voting histories, we found 32 Republican representatives who we believe are likeliest to vote against repeal of its clean energy and manufacturing tax credits. With 32 potential defectors against a razor-thin majority of five seats, repeal is hardly a fait accompli.

Part of the genius of the Inflation Reduction Act may lie in its political durability. The law spurred over $421 million in private capital expenditure, over 75 percent of which has gone to Republican House districts.

Consider Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), a Republican representing California’s 22nd District. According to our study, Valadao’s district has received over $2.1 billion in private investment in clean energy and manufacturing since the law’s passage. Additionally, his district tends to lean Democratic, making it an enticing pickup opportunity for Democrats in 2026.

On Aug. 6, 2024, 18 House Republican members, including Valadao, signed a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) imploring him to save most of the law's clean energy tax credits, without which investors in their districts could experience economic upheaval. This seemed to influence Johnson, who on many occasions thereafter has reiterated that he would like to take a “scalpel, rather than a hammer” to the law.

A new letter from a similar group Sunday re-iterated the support to Johnson, this time with greater numbers. In a bare-majority Republican House, this bodes well for the survival of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits.

This leaves the future of America’s climate policy in a precarious, but hardly doomed, position. While the Trump administration has been able to effectively stop grants and loans for clean energy through funding pauses, it needs Congress to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy tax credits.

If Trump and Republican leadership puts these clean energy subsidies on the chopping block, thirty-odd Republicans will find themselves torn between their own dogma and pork barrel politics. These representatives will need to decide between pleasing Trump and preserving their districts’ investments and reelection prospects. In the end, it may be Republicans that save Joe Biden’s signature legislative accomplishment.

Noah Mihan is a climate economics researcher at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford. Stephen Lezak is a research manager at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford.

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