Republican Mike Lawler wins second term in New York

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) held off former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) to win a second term representing New York’s 17th Congressional District, Decision Desk HQ projects.

Lawler’s win is a setback for Democrats who hoped to flip his district, one of four battlegrounds in New York that the party had been eyeing to win back. Decision Desk HQ rated the race as a toss-up.

Lawler was among a number of Republican Empire State first-term representatives whose wins were key to clinching the GOP’s narrow majority this Congress — and who became top targets for Democrats.

Lawler and Jones both looked to portray themselves as moderates while slamming their opponent as extreme.

Lawler also has sought to position himself as a moderate during his first term, criticizing the chaos caused by some conservatives and leading calls for ex-Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) to resign or be expelled from the House over the many false claims the then-representative made about his background.

Jones represented the district from 2021 to 2023. After redistricting, he ran in a different district in 2022 and lost in the Democratic primary.

While in office, Jones was considered a progressive and supporter of policies like "Medicare for All," but during the 2024 campaign he emphasized his support for police and Israel.

Lawler seemed to be among the more likely of the potentially vulnerable New York Republicans to win, so his victory is not as damaging to Democrats’ hopes as others, but they’ll have to find alternatives to have a chance at the majority.