Rep. Don Bacon seeks to outrun Trump in Nebraska's blue-leaning district

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is hoping to outrun former President Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which has been trending blue and is set to play a key role in the contentious presidential race.

Bacon, who has represented the recently-redrawn district encompassing Omaha for nearly a decade in Congress, is running against state Sen. Tony Vargas, a Democrat, looking to secure his fifth term on Capitol Hill serving the so-called “blue dot” that has been a target for national Democrats looking to peel off a pivotal Electoral College vote for Vice President Harris.

Two years ago, Vargas, vying to become the first Latino to represent Nebraska in Congress, lost to Bacon by less than three points. This year, the two Nebraskans are squaring off again during a presidential cycle where a record amount of national spending, an increased percentage of Latino voters in the district and renewed energy over the issue of abortion could help him knock out the Republican incumbent, who needs to outperform Trump in the swing district.

“I think I've been caught in this vortex of huge amounts of Democrat spending coming in the district, so I think that's been my biggest handicap,” Bacon said in a phone interview with The Hill. “I feel like though a month ago, my nose was barely over the water, but I think we have surged five, seven points. I think the debates helped me out.”

Bacon’s district, which includes Saunders County, Douglas County and parts of Sarpy County, has more registered Republicans than Democrats, but also a significant chunk,103,707, of nonpartisan voters. The Cook Political Report shifted Nebraska’s only competitive House race from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat” on Friday.

Polls have shown Vargas maintaining a slight lead. A recent survey, sponsored by The Economist, had Vargas up by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

To turn the tables, Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general, has showcased his bipartisan prowess on the campaign trail, reminding constitutes of his vote for the 2021 infrastructure bill and military background, as well as his vote to certify the 2020 election and the fact that Trump campaigned against him two years ago.

“If I disagree with my party, I do,” Bacon said. "If I agree with them, I do. I feel the same way about President Biden. If I can agree with him, I will, but if I think he's doing something wrong, I'm going to call him out. So I work for the district, I don’t work for anybody else.”

In the hunt for more split-ticket voters, Bacon has touted endorsements of Democrats like Ann Ashford, who ran in Bacon’s district in 2020. Vargas, similarly, did a press conference with some Republicans who shared why they can’t vote for Bacon again.

Adding to Bacon’s challenges is the fact that Trump is badly trailing Harris in the district, at least according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll that found the GOP presidential nominee behind by 12 points.

“If she [Harris] wins this district, it is not impossible at all for Bacon to win,” one GOP operative involved in the race told The Hill. “He absolutely can still win this district if Kamala does, because this district doesn't really like Trump. They are Republicans, but it's the Trump factor that they don't like."

Bacon acknowledged that Trump will need to close that gap with Harris in the district if the congressional incumbent is going to win reelection.

“We start talking over 12 points, that's harder to reach for down-ballot Republicans,” Bacon said. “So for me to win, [Trump’s] gotta be tighter than that. We think he's down seven right now.”

The House Republican has been here before. He launched his congressional career by ousting a Democratic incumbent, Brad Ashford, in 2016, the same year Trump won the district.

Since then, he has survived competitive reelection bids. He was censured by the Sarpy County Republican Party in April, a month before he easily defeated his primary challenger, Republican Dan Frei. Some political observers believe he can survive the onslaught once more.

“Beyond his military service record and his record of bipartisan accomplishments, Don Bacon is exceedingly authentic and likable- and that may carry him through,” Jessica Flanagain, a partner at Axiom Strategies and a Nebraska GOP strategist, told The Hill.

She acknowledged that the influx of outside money has made it harder for the Nebraska Republican to “define the issues, which he has traditionally done very well.”

Both candidates have been aggressive on the fundraising circuit. They raised almost $12.7 million combined and have spent over $11.2 million, according to the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, although Vargas raised around $1.4 million more than Bacon during the third quarter.

Nearly 40 groups have dropped cash in the race, flooding the district with over $21 million in outside spending, according to money-in-politics tracker OpenSecrets. Coupled with Harris’s involvement, it carved out a bigger opening for Vargas.

He has campaigned on abortion, middle-class tax cuts and keeping prescription drug prices down. The state senator, a former member of the Omaha Public Schools board, has tried to glue Bacon to Trump, whom he endorsed three times, casting his opponent as being in the MAGA wing of the GOP and out of touch with the district’s constituents, an assertion that Bacon strongly denied.

Meg Mandy, Vargas’ campaign manager, told The Hill that Bacon “hasn't offered any solutions to the issues facing Nebraskans — housing and childcare affordability, cost of living, and the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs.”

“Tony has a strong record of working across the aisle to support $6 billion of tax relief and in Congress, Nebraskans can count on him to fight to deliver a middle-class tax cut, lower healthcare costs and protect reproductive rights,” Mandy added.

The Latino population in the state has increased by over 40 percent in the last ten years. The growth could benefit Vargas, who is currently the highest elected Latino official in the state.

“Latino voters really have a shot at making an impact, both in terms of who represents them in Congress next year,” BOLD PAC’s Executive Director Victoria McGroar told The Hill, adding they also play a crucial role in “granting that electoral vote in the presidential election.”

Bacon disagreed, saying that those voters are “small business-oriented, they're faith-based oriented and really my opponent is at the opposite of that on these issues.”

BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC), invested $150,000 in Spanish broadcast ads targeting Latino voters in the district, according to McGroar.

“I don’t think it’s going to affect this cycle as it will in 2026 and it'll be up to whichever party puts the most amount of effort into listening to them and connecting with them, where their values are at,” said Nebraska Republican Party Chair Eric Underwood.

Abortion has also risen as a key factor in the contest, an issue the GOP has struggled with since the overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2022. The shockwaves from that decision could ripple through the contentious House race.

Nebraskans have two competing abortion measures on the ballot. Initiative 439 would grant a constitutional right to abortion up to fetal viability, while Initiative 434 would ban abortions in the second and third trimesters, except when medical emergencies, incest or sexual assault occur.

Randy Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, said both ballot initiatives will “drive up turnout on both sides.”

Vargas and his allies have attacked Bacon over abortion, contending he has a more hardline stance on the issue than what the rest of his moderate record suggests.

“Don Bacon co-sponsored a national abortion ban with no exceptions 3 times,” Mandy said. “Abortion is on the ballot this year in Nebraska and voters know they can count on Tony to keep healthcare decisions between women and their doctors and work to protect reproductive rights.”

Bacon argued Vargas was lying about his stance and that he backs exceptions for the life of the mother, rape and incest. Bacon supports Initiative 434.

GOP-aligned groups have backed up Bacon. Congressional Leadership Fund has spent over $4.6 million so far, the most out of any Super PAC in the race, according to FEC reports, but it might not be enough.

“The fact that it's a presidential cycle definitely makes it one of the toughest [races],” the GOP operative said. “I think the amount of money being spent against him definitely makes it tough. But at the same time, he's done this before, he's been through it before, so it's always going to be a tough race. I don't know if it's the toughest, but it's definitely up there.”