Putin's calculated move with Trump shows Russia's edge

Russian President Vladimir Putin has always been a master manipulator, and his latest maneuvering with President Trump underscores just how adept he is at bending situations to his advantage. The recent phone call between the two leaders, ostensibly aimed at finding a pathway to peace in Ukraine, ended up showcasing Putin’s ability to outmaneuver Trump while extracting concessions without giving up anything of substance.

From the outset, Putin set the tone by making Trump wait for more than an hour before taking his call. The delay, during which Putin was engaged in a televised conference with Russian business leaders, was no accident. It was a calculated power play, reinforcing his dominance not just over Trump but also for domestic audiences in Russia.

The event echoed a similar humiliation meted out to Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, who was reportedly made to wait eight hours before meeting with Putin in Moscow. These theatrics serve a clear purpose: sending the message that Putin is in control, setting the terms of engagement on his own timeline.

Once the conversation did begin, Putin swiftly demonstrated his tactical edge. While Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had reportedly pushed for a full ceasefire, Putin offered only a limited pause on attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure — a far cry from what Trump had likely envisioned. Even this half-measure was framed ambiguously, with the Kremlin stating the pause would apply solely to energy infrastructure, while the White House suggested it encompassed broader infrastructure.

Given Russia’s track record of interpreting agreements to suit its interests, there’s little doubt that Moscow will stick to its narrow interpretation. More plausibly, Putin crafted the offer himself, knowing it was the least costly concession he could make while keeping Trump engaged. This shrewdly constructed “compromise” allowed Putin to appear cooperative while ensuring Russia retained the ability to continue its broader military operations in Ukraine, where it maintains an upper hand due to Ukrainian manpower shortages and Trump’s hesitations on military aid.

Despite mounting casualties and immense economic strain, Russia has remained relentless in its pursuit of territorial gains. Putin’s refusal to agree to a comprehensive ceasefire ensures that his forces can maintain their offensive, consolidating positions in eastern Ukraine and continuing to batter Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

This approach has already lead to tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians killed or injured and an estimated half a trillion dollars in damage. Meanwhile, Ukraine has achieved notable successes in striking Russian energy infrastructure, directly threatening one of the Kremlin’s key revenue streams for financing the war. Yet, even with these setbacks, Putin remains confident in his long-term position, particularly with Trump’s rhetoric signaling a shift in U.S. policy.

What makes this situation even more advantageous for Putin is Trump’s apparent willingness to entertain concessions that weaken Ukraine’s position. The Kremlin’s statement after the call emphasized that progress toward peace would require an end to Western military aid and intelligence support to Ukraine. Trump has already signaled his willingness to slow arms shipments and curtail intelligence sharing — a move that directly aligns with Russian interests.

By dangling the possibility of a ceasefire, Putin can keep Trump engaged while extracting further U.S. retreats, knowing that any reduction in Western assistance only strengthens Russia’s leverage in the conflict. Trump’s approach has already given Putin a series of victories. One, he has opened direct negotiations with Russia without Ukraine’s presence, undermining Kyiv’s agency in its own war.

Two, he has practically dashed all hopes of the future NATO membership for Ukraine, weakening its long-term security prospects.

And three, in blatant defiance of international law, by floating the idea that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia, Putin has changed the whole complexion of the equation.

For Putin, these are not minor wins — they are major steps toward achieving his war objectives without having to make significant concessions. His ultimate goal remains unchanged: to reassert Russian dominance over Ukraine, dictate its foreign policy and solidify control over the regions Moscow has illegally annexed.

That these regions are now being formally integrated into Russia through legal instruments underscores the Kremlin’s intention to make these territorial seizures permanent. Even as he extends these negotiations, Putin likely sees an opportunity to buy time, consolidate his gains, and eventually present a “peace” framework that cements Russia’s territorial expansions while offering Trump a political win to sell domestically.

With Trump in the White House, Putin may find in him a leader willing to further reduce U.S. pressure on Russia, lift sanctions and even restore economic ties — all of which would benefit Moscow while leaving Ukraine in a precarious position.

Meanwhile, as expected, Zelensky’s response to the Trump-Putin call has been measured. Zelensky, aware of Trump’s unpredictable nature and still reeling from his face-to-face encounter with Trump at the Oval Office, cautiously welcomed the limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure while making it clear that Ukraine’s bottom-line demands remain non-negotiable and Kyiv retains the right to determine its own alliances and military partnerships.

For Ukraine, any discussion of freezing the conflict along current battle lines is untenable unless Russia reverses its annexations and allows international oversight to ensure compliance with international law. Without such guarantees, any ceasefire risks becoming a de facto recognition of Russia’s illegal territorial gains. But the situation seems to be slipping out of hands of Zelensky and he appears to be more weak with each passing day.

Putin’s strategic patience continues to pay dividends. By exploiting Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy, he has maneuvered himself into a position where he can dictate the terms of engagement while extracting concessions from the U.S. If Trump sees his limited agreement with Putin as a diplomatic success, it only reinforces the Kremlin’s belief that it can extract even more favorable terms down the line.

The reality is that Putin has no genuine interest in peace — at least not on terms that involve returning Ukrainian land or restoring the post-2014 status quo. With Trump now offering him an opening, Putin is seizing the moment, playing the long game, and shaping a narrative that keeps the West divided and Ukraine vulnerable.

As the war drags on, the question remains: will the U.S. recognize Putin’s manipulation for what it is, or will it allow him to continue dictating the terms of engagement? If history is any indication, the Kremlin is betting on the latter — and so far, it has been right.

Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master’s degree in international relations.

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