Post-election polling suggests a new reason behind Trump’s victory

In the wake of a 2024 election that saw Democrats lose the White House and both chambers of Congress, there have been multiple theories as to why voters were less receptive to Democrats’ messaging.

New polling by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, in partnership with George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management, likely provides the clearest explanation.

Our poll, the first post-election poll specifically focused on trust in government, reveals that while voters are less trusting of the government as a result of the election, they believe the government will be more effective and can get things done.

Put another way, our poll suggests that Democrats ran the wrong campaign. Whereas they ran a “values campaign,” focused on a government Americans could trust, what voters really wanted was an effective government, and on that, they preferred Donald Trump.

Indeed, we found that a plurality (39 percent) of Americans said the 2024 election results made them less trusting of the government. Similarly, a 41 percent plurality of Americans say the election makes them less confident that the government will share “fair and accurate information.”

And yet, a plurality (40 percent) of Americans believe the government will be more effective at getting things done going forward, versus 36 percent of Americans saying the government will be less effective.

Among independents, the discrepancy is even more pronounced, underscoring this voting bloc’s desire for an effective government over one that is trustworthy.

By a 13-point margin (39 percent to 26 percent), independents said they are less — rather than more — trusting of government following the election. And by a similar 11-point margin (39 percent to 28 percent), they feel less — rather than more — confident that the government will share fair and accurate information going forward.

However, at the same time, by a 10-point margin (39 percent to 29 percent), independents believe the Trump administration will be more effective at getting things done going forward.

The 23-point difference between Independents’ net trust in a second Trump administration (minus-13) and their optimism that his administration will be more effective than Biden-Harris (plus-10) is significant.

In the context of the 2024 election, this gap reveals that while the electorate at large – and particularly independents — are distrusting of a Trump administration, a considerable percentage were able to overlook that in favor of a government that they felt would get things done.

What could be called “cautious optimism” for the Trump administration was also found in a recent public poll by CNN.

A majority (54 percent) of Americans “expect Trump to do a good job upon his return to the White House,” and a similar 55 percent approve of how he is handling the transition thus far.

Further, more than two-thirds of Americans (68 percent) feel that Trump will be able to bring change to the country, something pre-election polls routinely showed voters wanted.

While voters prioritized the effectiveness of government, our survey points to one very likely cause for the lack of trust in government and its communications: Americans recognize an increase in misinformation and disinformation.

Nearly 7 in 10 (69 percent) Americans felt that an increase in online misinformation and disinformation made it harder to access “fair and truthful news during the 2024 election campaign” according to our poll.

In that same vein, a similar 71 percent were concerned over the role that “deepfakes” played in spreading disinformation during the election.

As a response to these concerns, nearly one-half (45 percent) of Americans say they do not trust either the government or news organizations to provide fair and truthful news.

To that end, trying to address the declining lack of trust in either the government or the media is made more difficult by our extremely fragmented media environment, and therefore the need to communicate through an ever-increasing number of outlets.

Whereas three-quarters (76 percent) of Americans under 30 years old get their news from social media, seniors overwhelmingly (84 percent) prefer television, with just over one-quarter (27 percent) of seniors getting information from social media.

Moreover, even within social media platforms, we find that where Americans turn to for information differs significantly across age groups. While roughly 6 in 10 (61 percent) Americans under 30 years old get their news from TikTok and 55 percent from Instagram, this drops to just 8 percent and 10 percent, respectively for those over 65 years old.

Taken together, these findings suggest that it will be challenging to fix what appears to be an endemic problem, and it will be critical for the media and for the government to respond to the fragmented way in which people consume news and information.

Four years ago, then-candidate Biden ran a values-based campaign, announcing that he was running because “the core values of this nation…our very democracy…is at stake.”

In many ways, Vice President Kamala Harris ran a nearly identical campaign. But this time around, in stark contrast to the 2020 election, voters were more interested in a government that could do things, rather than a candidate pledging to uphold or restore trust in institutions that Americans simply no longer have confidence in.

Ultimately, our post-election poll makes clear that voters prioritized perceived effectiveness rather than upholding democracy this election, and while they are deeply skeptical towards our institutions generally, they are cautiously optimistic that the incoming administration will be effective at providing real-world solutions.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”

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