Peltola's potential comeback buoys Democratic hopes in Alaska

Former Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D-Alaska) is reportedly considering a run for Alaska governor, stoking Democratic hopes that she could clinch another upset victory in the red state.

Peltola became the first Democrat to win the state’s lone House seat in 50 years when she won her race in 2022 before narrowly losing reelection in 2024 as Alaska went for President Trump. This made her the most successful statewide Democratic candidate in years.

Now, Democrats are hopeful she could pull off another win in 2026, in a state where a registered Democrat hasn’t held the governor’s mansion since 2002.

“I can't think of a Democrat who is better positioned than her, and I think she would stand a very strong chance,” said Alaska strategist John-Henry Heckendorn.

Peltola was relatively little known nationally when she pulled off a win in the special House election to fill the remainder of the late Rep. Don Young’s (R) term after Young died in 2022. She prevailed in the race after her two main Republican opponents, former Gov. Sarah Palin and Nick Begich, focused on attacking each other, helping her become the first Democrat to win statewide office in Alaska since 2008.

She then won again against Palin and Begich in that November’s general election to be elected to a full term.

Being a Trump-district Democrat, Peltola was one of the top targets for Republicans to pick off in 2024, and in a presidential election year in which Alaska almost would certainly vote for Trump, the GOP seemed to be the favorites.

Republicans also consolidated their support behind one candidate, Begich, ahead of the general election and avoided attacking each other to avoid splitting the vote in the first round of the state’s ranked-choice voting system.

Despite the odds being against her, Peltola still nearly pulled off a win. She was just 2 points behind Begich in the first round of voting and ultimately lost by only 2.5 points in the final round.

That was a significant overperformance compared to how former Vice President Harris (D) fared, losing the state by 13 points.

“Peltola’s putting up one of the top five performances in the [election] for a Democrat anywhere in the country. By that metric, she’s probably one of the most talented Democratic candidates in the U.S.” Heckendorn said, comparing her to former Montana Sen. Jon Tester, another red-state Democrat.

Her profile and past success would give Democrats a boost in any future office she seeks. And a gubernatorial run may be in her sights.

After her loss, Peltola was noncommittal about her future in an interview with Alaska Public Media, saying she was looking forward to returning to private life. The law firm Holland & Hart announced Monday that Peltola was joining as senior director of Alaska affairs.

The Hill has reached out to Peltola for comment.

Sources told Cook Political Report last month that Peltola’s old House seat would become a top target for Democrats if she runs in a rematch against Begich, but running for governor may be more likely. Cook reported the field for the House seat is “frozen” until Peltola decides.

She could also plan to challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026.

Ivan Moore, the founder of the polling firm Alaska Survey Research, said he conducted a poll about a year ago exploring a hypothetical match-up between Peltola and Sullivan, which found Peltola viewed more favorably than the incumbent senator.

“It's hypothetical, but this was at the height of Mary ... in office, and she was still halfway [in the] honeymoon,” he said.

But despite Peltola's advantage in favorability, Sullivan still led by 3 points, he said.

“The nature of Alaska is that if you've got two candidates, one a Democrat and one a Republican, and both of them have basically identical name ID and identical popularity, the Republican will win by 10 points,” Moore said. “So it's one thing to have good numbers, but if you’re running as a Democrat, it’s a problem.”

But he said running for governor would be a different matter because it will be an open seat with Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) term-limited. And he said the field, at least currently, is “pretty thin.”

“She would walk into the race with a huge advantage in name ID,” he said. “I mean literally hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of name ID. She's a household name, and there aren't really any household names out there. People are getting up there, but they're still a ways short.”

On the Republican side, state Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom is considered a likely candidate to succeed Dunleavy, but she’s coming off an unsuccessful House bid last year for the seat Begich won, and analysts said she’s not as well known as Peltola.

Democratic strategist Amber Lee said she hopes Peltola runs for governor because she believes Peltola would best be able to “protect” the state from what is happening at the federal level in that role. Lee noted Alaska is highly reliant on federal funding for jobs and Medicaid, which covers almost 250,000 Alaskans.

Congressional Republicans are currently working to make massive cuts to government spending. While Trump and the GOP have vowed Medicaid wouldn’t be cut, critics have argued the extent of the cuts would be tough to achieve without cutting programs like that.

“At this point, it looks like where we're really able to stand up for each other is more at the local level, and I think that she could protect Alaska from some of the things that's happening if she were here as governor,” Lee said.

Heckendorn said the electorate may also be better for Democrats in 2026 amid expected backlash to Trump, standard for the sitting president, giving her “tailwinds” to propel her forward. Even with headwinds last year, she almost won, he noted.

He said Peltola’s strength has been demonstrating an “authenticity” that voters feel they can trust personally. Peltola has often spoken about her background working in the fishing and mining industries, coming from rural Alaska and growing up with guns.

Peltola was the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress.

“Mary doesn’t have to fake anything,” Heckendorn said. “I think she’s seen as an authentic person, an authentic Alaskan. I think that strength is going to apply in any of those races.”