Opponents of school choice hope to hit the brakes this Election Day

Next week’s elections bring a front for the school choice fight as voters in three states face ballot initiatives on the issue, an arena where advocates have not yet seen a win.

Kentucky, Colorado and Nebraska are all facing school choice measures at the ballot box, set to demonstrate if the movement can maintain its recent momentum, or if voters have had enough.

"The historical context is these type of bills have never passed before in a statewide ballot initiative, so voters and parents, when actually given a choice on the ballot, have rejected these types of public funding for private school tuition,” said Joshua Cowen, professor of education policy at Michigan State University and senior fellow at Education Law Center.

“So if one passes next Tuesday, then that will be the first time ever. I’m a critic of these schemes, so I'm hoping all three go down [...] I'm optimistic all three will. But, you know, it's hard to know in a presidential election how things will shake out,” Cowen added.

In Kentucky, voters will be deciding on whether to change the state’s constitution to allow for legislators to create a school choice program. Similarly, in Colorado, voters will be asked whether a right to school choice should be put into state constitution.

The ballot initiative in Nebraska seeks to repeal a new law that allows public money to go to private schools.

Emerson College Polling found 60 percent of Nebraskans opposed measures to have taxpayer money pay for private schools, while 29 percent were supportive and 12 percent were unsure.

Carlie Hall, a high school senior and first time voter in Lexington, is fighting hard against the Kentucky measure.

“I want to say that as an educational advocate, I'm angry and frustrated with this amendment, but as a student, I'm scared. I'm scared for the future of education. I'm worried that the opportunities that students rely upon to succeed may not be there in the future,” Hall said.

Even school choice advocates, who have seen a string of successes in state legislatures, aren't confident of victory at the ballot box on Tuesday, arguing it is difficult for parents who are "not political campaigners" to go up against teachers unions that have dumped millions of dollars into the campaign.

“I never bet on any of these passing,” said Leslie Hiner, vice president of legal policy at EdChoice.

"A ballot question is a political question. It is an election political question," Hiner said. "So, you have average citizens and policy people who are going up against a political juggernaut."

At statehouses, the school choice movement has seen the most success recently with education savings accounts (ESAs), which allow public tax dollars to go towards parents who want to send their children to private school or homeschool them. At least 13 states have some ESA program, and at least 36 states considered ESA legislation in 2023.

But opponents are hopeful a failure at the ballot for school choice advocates will slow down the momentum.

“I think it will, if all three fail, and even if two of the three fail, I think it will affect their strategy a little bit, because that would signal they're almost at a max in terms of their capacity to bring about new states," said Cowen, who argued school choice advocates are likely eyeing change at the national level next.

“The ultimate goal for these voucher advocates is a new Supreme Court ruling that makes vouchers mandatory in every state,” he said.

“I do think if these things fail, you will see even more money and even more effort to just get the Supreme Court, once and for all, to make vouchers required every state, instead of having to spend millions of dollars individually, at an individual state basis, to ram these things through,” he added.

Others believe the result of the ballot initiatives themselves won’t be as impactful as who wins the election.

Augustus Mays, the vice president for partnerships and engagement at EdTrust, is hopeful that if these ballot measures fail there could be a "decrease in the amount of legislation" related to the issue in the future.

But the results of the election, particularly if there is a second Trump administration, could bring new life to the school choice movement.

“[Trump] is going to be pushing a private school choice agenda at the federal level, by probably leveraging tax credit scholarships through a new program or [an] existing program that supports those kind of efforts. And I think that will also send a signal to some conservative state leaders to continue on this path,” Mays said.

“I think it's really dependent upon what happens, honestly, at the national level, and that will probably dictate the momentum or interest,” Mays added.