Only a Russian strategic defeat can bring peace to Ukraine

It is time to stop chasing the illusion that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants peace. He does not.

It didn’t take long for Washington to receive clarity on Russia’s interests in following through an agreement for a 30-day halt on attacking energy infrastructure. Shortly after Putin’s call with President Trump wrapped up, Russia continued to hit Ukrainian energy targets.

Putin remains as defiant, inflexible and hostile as ever. Not only did he reject an immediate 30-day ceasefire as agreed by Ukraine, but his overnight barrages should remove any remaining pretensions about his willingness to follow through on future ceasefire promises.

The unfortunate truth is that Russia still wants to exert control over Ukraine and erase its identity as a separate nation. That is diametrically opposed to the stated American desire for Ukraine to survive as a sovereign and independent country.

The tell is in Russia’s hostility toward the idea of stationing French and British peacekeepers in Ukraine. The presence of any Western military force in the country would complicate Putin’s ability to restart the war at a future time of his choosing.

Russia knows that, without robust security guarantees, Ukraine is vulnerable to all sorts of machinations. The doors of corruption and influence would swing open for Russian money and propaganda. All of this while the ever-present threat of renewed conflict hangs over Ukraine.

Under such bleak circumstances, Ukraine would struggle not only to convince the millions of Ukrainians who have fled abroad to return home, but it would be almost impossible for Kyiv to keep its most talented citizens from emigrating.

Putin has staked his regime’s stability on the war against Ukraine. His remolding of the Russian economy to support the war has been so thorough and complete that it is doubtful that Russia could pivot economically even if the fighting stops. Russia is committed to war for the time being. Any ceasefire would be little more than a tactical pause.

The Kremlin will only agree to a cessation of hostilities if Moscow believes that it can subjugate Ukraine by another means or at another time.

While there is no doubt that President Trump has a genuine desire to “stop the millions of deaths taking place in the war,” Russia simply does not share this interest.

Instead, Moscow responded to the Trump-brokered ceasefire proposal with its usual list of demands: no NATO or foreign peacekeeping forces for Ukraine, but international recognition of Russia’s newly conquered territories.

In other words, Russia pockets all the concessions and begins preparations to fight another day. This is not exactly a recipe for lasting peace.

Trump has noticed, and his patience may be running low. Recently, he wrote that he is considering new sanctions and tariffs to force Russia to come to an agreement.

It is exactly this sort of language — and more importantly, these sorts of actions — that can make a difference.

It is time for the U.S. to shift its focus toward the central task at hand: imposing greater costs on Russia and arming Ukraine sufficiently to withstand aggression, thus inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia. Only that will bring true peace.

With last month’s acrimonious back and forth between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky behind us, the moment is ripe for the U.S. to implement policy actions that strengthen Ukraine’s independence and buttress Kyiv’s ability to withstand Russia for the long haul.

It is clear who the “impediment to peace” is in Ukraine. Ceasefire agreement or not, getting Russia to willingly agree to a settlement that preserves an independent Ukraine is an illusion.

The sooner this idea is dispelled, the quicker the real work toward peace can begin.

Daniel Kochis is a senior fellow at the Center on Europe and Eurasia at Hudson Institute.

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