NOAA: 99 percent chance 2024 will be warmest year ever recorded

November 2024 was Earth’s second warmest month in 175 years of record-keeping, and the year is all but certain to be the warmest on record, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Average worldwide land and ocean surface temperatures for the month were 2.41 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 55.2 degree average in the 20th-century. Only last November, which was 0.14 degrees warmer, surpassed this year.

The month was also the second-warmest recorded for Oceania and South America while in Asia, it was the warmest on record.

For the first 11 months of the year, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 2.3 degrees warmer than the last century’s average, the warmest recorded temperature for the first 11 months of the year and for every continent excluding Asia. Based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information’s (NCEI) Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, there is only a 1 percent chance 2024 will fall short of the record.

NOAA also found that last month, Arctic sea ice extent was the third-lowest ever recorded for November, while coverage was the overall lowest ever recorded for both the Antarctic and the globe in general.

The report comes just over a month after the agency determined that October 2024 was both the second-warmest and second-driest October ever recorded in the U.S. after 1963, with an average temperature nearly 5 degrees warmer than that of the 20th century.

Meanwhile, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service drew similar conclusions in November, saying that not only was October the second-warmest ever recorded after 2023 but also that 2024 is likely to be the warmest ever recorded.

The service also found October was the 15th of the last 16 months in which the global average surface air temperature was above the 1.5 degrees Celsius identified as the warming threshold by the Paris Climate Agreement.