Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is upending British politics

Any poll must be taken as a snapshot in time, rather than an exhaustive evaluation of the present moment. In politics, it is the trend that matters, and the trend is clear here in the U.K.: Nigel Farage and Reform U.K. are building a party that continues to make gains and attract voters.

Earlier in February, a YouGov/Times voting intention survey marked a historic moment: For the first time since its incorporation, Reform U.K. topped a national poll. Reform led all parties with its 25 percent vote-share, surpassing Labour at 24 percent and the Conservative Party at 21 percent. Two weeks later, Reform added 2 percent to its tally.

Some questioned this shift, seeking exhaustive evaluations and forensic accounts of the state of the British electorate. A simpler explanation is all that’s needed, and it mirrors President Trump’s win in the U.S. in November. Over the last decade and a half, much of the world has entered a new form of politics in which results must be delivered faster and better than before.

As in the U.S., France and Germany, political cycles no longer follow a well-trodden path in which changes in government come at regular intervals. Rather, our political moment demonstrates almost immediate punishment for governments that fail to wrangle high inflation and high interest rates or provide reasonable economic lifelines to voters.

For 14 years, the Conservative Party governed the U.K. But as voters grew disillusioned with the party’s failure to deliver on illegal migration, public service funding and tax reform, the party’s momentum wound down. Seeing an opportunity, Farage and Reform U.K. implemented a relatively successful strategy last July that saw the party spend less cash while still making significant gains.

Instead of expending resources on close but likely unwinnable constituencies, Reform U.K. leveraged social media to work around the constraints of legacy media to amplify its message. Its key target was a younger generation of voters who no longer engage with traditional media or, it would seem, traditional party politics. According to post-election polling, Reform U.K. bested the Conservative Party among voters between 18 and 24 years old.

YouGov reported that 20 percent of those who supported the Tories in the previous general election would now vote Reform. Reform’s inroads underscores both the party’s growing appeal and casts a worrying, spectral shadow over the Tories’ 2024 loss, a sign that last summer’s rout may not have been its rock bottom.

With a growing vote-share and regional elections just around the corner, Reform will be eyeing ways to inflict more electoral damage on my Conservative Party colleagues. Labour may very well get caught in the tussle, too. The more seats Reform gains in local and national governments, the more professionalized its party becomes and the more power it can wield.

Much of this will be supported by Reform U.K.’s organizational strength. As of this month, the party’s membership surpassed 200,000, overtaking the Conservative Party’s 131,680 members reported in November 2024 — itself a large fall from the membership highs enjoyed in the early days of Boris Johnson. This expansion reflects a burgeoning base of active supporters, further solidifying Reform’s position in the political arena. This is all the more reason for the Conservative Party to avoid unnecessary public arguments over who has the bigger following.

Reform U.K.’s rise is reshaping the political landscape. Its appeal to disillusioned voters from both major parties is a harbinger of a new realignment in British politics. We are witnessing the beginning of the end, not of our parliamentary system but of the old, longstanding two-party stronghold. Take the Liberal Democrats’ 70 seat gain — it is as much a sign of the changing times as Reform’s.

However, both parties will now realize how difficult it is to sustain this momentum. Reform U.K.'s success will depend upon how effectively it maneuvers the pitfalls of fast growth and the associated media attention undoubtedly shone on the unsanctioned actions of a diverse and non-unified membership. It will also have to navigate the challenges inherent in the U.K.’s first-past-the-post electoral system, which has historically favored the established parties.

As Reform gains more attention and more money, it will affect future elections and the traditional two-party system in ways that warrant close observation.

Brandon Lewis was lord chancellor and secretary of state for justice in September and October 2022. He was previously secretary of State for Northern Ireland from February 2020 to July 2022.

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