Next up for Trump's immigration axe: temporary protected status

Here we go again.

Just as he did during his first presidency, Donald Trump is taking aim at an immigration program known as "temporary protected status" or TPS. It allows about 1 million people from nations in turmoil to stay here until conditions in their home countries improve.

Speaking about the status of many Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, Trump said last month “Absolutely I’d revoke it. And I’d bring them back to their country.”

Americans should consider the impact of ending the temporary protected status program. Besides the humanitarian consequences, the move will be costly for U.S. citizens. It will increase the size of the undocumented population and could spur more illegal migration. And there’s no guarantee that migrants who lose TPS will leave or be deported anyway.

Currently, when a country is beset by natural disaster, civil war or extreme violence, the Secretary of Homeland Security can grant TPS to people from that country who are already in the U.S. Think of almost any country in crisis — Afghanistan, Lebanon, Venezuela, Ukraine — and it's probably on the TPS list. Migrants with TPS, including people who entered illegally, can temporarily live and work here without fear of deportation.

For these folks, TPS has been a lifeline. That could all change if the president-elect makes good on his promise to end the program. Uprooting longtime residents will disrupt migrant families and communities while deporting people to dangerous countries could amount to a death sentence.

Look at Haiti, which in recent years has suffered civil unrest, gang violence, earthquakes and hurricanes. Sending migrants back into such dire conditions would likely constitute a violation of basic human rights.

Many Americans may not realize that they, too, could be affected if Trump ends TPS. According to a 2019 study by University of Southern California researchers, TPS-holders paid federal, state, and local taxes estimated at $4.6 billion a year. That figure is certainly higher now, as the program as expanded since then.

Were Trump to wind down TPS, those contributions would dissipate at the same time the government will be spending more to arrest, detain, and remove people. The Miami Herald has pointed out that ending TPS would hurt the president-elect's adopted state of Florida the most, as it is home to the country’s largest population of TPS holders.

Ironically, stripping TPS from its beneficiaries will have the unintended effect of increasing the number of people here illegally. That’s because once people lose the program’s protection, they will join the ranks of the country’s 11 million undocumented migrants. This in turn could lead to an uptick in illegal immigration.

Studies have shown that remittances by TPS holders help stem the flow of unauthorized arrivals, as the money sent home eases the pressures driving such migration.

Any plan to end the TPS program is especially ill-conceived because it is unclear whether our government will be able — logistically and diplomatically — to return people to places like Syria and Venezuela. Instead, TPS holders may wind up in detention camps with the bill for their ongoing care footed by taxpayers.

TPS holders are currently living productive lives, working in our agriculture, construction, and hospitality sectors. What will really be gained by taking away their lawful status?

Critics of TPS call it “amnesty” and complain that it allows migrants to stay here permanently. Not true. The program does not offer anyone a green card or a pathway to citizenship. Nor does it go on endlessly; it lasts for up to 18 months and must be renewed by the federal government. Over time TPS designations have ended for multiple countries as their conditions have improved.

To be clear, TPS is not a loophole exploited by migrants. It was created by Congress and signed into law by President George H.W. Bush in 1990. The statutory language says that it cannot be revoked without an assessment by U.S. government agencies that conditions in the designated country are safe for deportees. Attempts to brush aside this legislative intent would constitute improper overreach by the executive branch.

The next president will have great discretion to set his immigration agenda. Yet ending TPS would be chaotic, inefficient and expensive. Migrants from troubled nations would pay the price if this protection were revoked — and so would many Americans.

Raul A. Reyes is an attorney and contributor to NBC Latino and CNN Opinion.