New polling data underscores Trump’s vulnerabilities
Often, polls can generate seemingly contradictory headlines from the same data.
For instance, last week, an NBC News poll was released showing President Donald Trump with his highest-ever approval rating, 47 percent.
Moreover, the share of registered voters believing the country is on the right track (44 percent) was the highest since 2004.
These findings were amplified by many, including the White House.
At the same time, other headlines — such as these from NBC and Bloomberg — focused on the fact that, on virtually every issue, majorities or pluralities of voters disapprove of Trump’s approach, including the economy.
Taken together, I believe that it is critical to note that while both findings can be true, the data suggests that the president may be more vulnerable than perhaps he or Democrats realize.
The first reason I say this is that despite Trump’s approval being at a personal high, he is still below the 50 percent approval threshold, with a slight majority of voters (51 percent) disapproving of his job thus far.
At this point in a president’s term, polling typically shows at least a majority of voters approving.
Indeed, as NBC’s Steve Kornacki pointed out, Trump’s 47 percent approval is lower than former presidents Obama (62 percent), Bush (58 percent), Biden (54 percent) and Clinton (53 percent) at the same time in their terms.
So, while Trump may be at his own high watermark, the data suggest that less than half of Americans are responding positively to what he is doing.
Further, Trump’s approval ratings are largely due to partisan politics. Just 3 in 10 independents approve and two-thirds (67 percent) disapprove thus far.
To that end, on every issue aside from immigration, Trump’s approval rating is negative.
This is particularly acute in the economy, where a majority (54 percent) of voters disapprove of Trump’s approach, versus 44 percent who approve.
On the issue of inflation and the cost of living, a virtually identical 55 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling, while 42 percent approve.
Similarly, less than one-fifth (18 percent) of voters say that the economy is “excellent” or “good” — just 7 points higher than the historically low 11 percent who said the same in April 2022.
Plainly, that is a clear vulnerability for the Trump administration, who made the economy a cornerstone of his presidential campaign.
That being said, as vulnerable as Trump and Republicans may appear, Democrats are arguably in an even weaker position.
Democrats’ lack of a set of coherent, consistent policies, and inability thus far to present any semblance of a competent alternative has severely damaged the party’s brand.
Only slightly more than one-quarter (27 percent) of voters have a positive view of Democrats per the aforementioned NBC poll, the party’s lowest since NBC began polling in 1990.
For comparison, 39 percent of voters have a positive view of the Republican Party.
As I have previously written in this publication, if Democrats want any hope of winning in the midterms — let alone 2028 — they need a strategy, one that is not waging war against the administration, nor one of total capitulation.
Rather, Democrats must use his weakness on the issues to outline moderate, alternative policies on the economy, social security, inflation, Medicare, Medicaid and more.
To be sure, Democrats’ alternative approach must represent a differentiation from Trump, but not necessarily a repudiation of the underlying ideas that the American people thoroughly embraced last November.
Put another way, instead of rejecting every policy that Trump pushes for, Democrats should internalize that the American people want lower taxes, a less bloated and more efficient government, secure borders and fewer regulations.
As Kristen Soltis Anderson perfectly described in the New York Times, Trump’s struggles in the polls is very likely due to misreading his mandate.
Whereas he believes he was elected to bring bold, sweeping change to Washington, what voters really wanted in choosing him was a strong leader who could provide a more stable economy and a lower cost of living.
And while the administration is promising that tariffs and drastic cuts to the government will pay benefits down the road, the chaos they’re unleashing now — in financial markets, polls, and the wider economy — is a significant political vulnerability.
Ultimately, the data strongly suggests that Democrats have a clear roadmap to regaining their footing before next year’s midterms.
But in order to do so, they must stop attacking each other and begin identifying a moderate agenda for key social and economic programs, providing a stable alternative at a time of maximum uncertainty for our economy and our country.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”
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