NATO needs a realistic plan for ending the Ukraine War
![NATO needs a realistic plan for ending the Ukraine War](https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/07/GettyImages-1556673321-e1720456506787.jpg?w=900)
As NATO leaders and other key officials gather in Washington this week to commemorate the alliance’s 75th anniversary, they must avoid talk of celebration. The world is in turmoil, and they must focus hard on explaining to their various agitated and unsure constituents what their strategy really is for the Ukraine War.
At present, the war is basically stuck, but there is more momentum on the Russian side in terms of battlefield territory, political developments in relevant key countries and long-term demographic and economic factors. Under these circumstances, it makes little sense to keep repeating the tired mantra that we will help Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” That is not a strategy.
Nor is President Biden’s broader campaign slogan of “let’s finish the job.” Biden and his team, whether or not he stays in the race, have done their fair share of the job to date, but there is no clarity at all on where we are now heading.
In terms of ensuring Ukrainian survival and sovereignty, we should help Ukraine for as long as it takes. Indeed, NATO leaders and voters on both sides of the Atlantic (as well as Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand — all also represented at the summit) should take pride in what they have helped Ukraine do so far. It was crucial that Russia be prevented from taking over the country, or stealing most of its territory and resources, when Vladimir Putin launched his unconscionable and unprovoked invasion 29 months ago. Otherwise, NATO territory might have been next in the sights of the Russian dictator.
It is also important to note that, as we have documented with our Ukraine Index at Brookings, Europe has actually done more than the U.S. to help Ukraine in terms of overall economic, military, humanitarian and refugee support. Former President Donald Trump has frequently said otherwise, but he is wrong on that point, even if he is correct that America’s NATO allies must still do more to provide for their own defense as a matter of fair alliance burden-sharing.
But it is not so obvious that Western security hinges on Ukraine reclaiming the 18 percent of its original (pre-2014) territory that Russia currently holds. To be sure, what Russia has done in Ukraine is tragic, especially the terrible human toll. But core American interests do not necessarily include where a border is drawn some 1,000 miles from the original places where NATO’s eastern borders were originally established during the Cold War.
It would be wrong for NATO leaders to try to impose a specific outcome on Ukraine right now. Although our security is at play, too, and although our enormous collective contributions to Ukraine’s defense should give us a say in war-termination strategies, it is too soon to ask a sovereign country and admirable friend to accept the theft of nearly one-fifth of its own land by a ravenous imperialist neighbor.
We may someday have to hold our noses and acknowledge that much of what Russia now controls in eastern and southern Ukraine is not going to be won back on the battlefield. But Ukraine deserves another try at a serious counteroffensive. To be sure, the odds are against it. I have estimated elsewhere that Ukraine would need to build a crack maneuver force of some 200,000 more troops to have a good chance at success, and there are few signs that its military is building such a capability. But I still think Ukrainians deserve one more chance; it is, after all, their land.
All of this suggests the contours of a strategy that NATO leaders should, at least in general terms, begin to discuss privately and even publicly this week. For now, we should indeed provide Ukraine almost everything it could ask for. Give Ukraine the rest of the year and into 2025 to build up its capabilities and attempt a major counteroffensive. But don’t plan on complete success.
Meanwhile, allow politics in the U.S., France and elsewhere to settle a bit — or at least clarify their course. Start talking with President Volodymyr Zelensky about how Western aid might be modified. And yes, cut back in some ways in 2025 if his next offensive does not succeed. At that point, depending on circumstances, consider falling back on a strategy that helps Ukraine protect the land it does hold, as well as Ukrainian cities from air and missile attack, while helping the country recover economically and build up its long-term defensibility.
There is one more key piece to all of this too — Ukraine’s security anchor to the West. Most favor NATO membership for Ukraine. But that will most likely never prove negotiable with Moscow and may not be practical anytime soon.
Lise Howard of Georgetown University and I have proposed an Atlantic-Asian Security Community instead. This would include the U.S. and some other key Western countries, and possibly other countries like India, as well as Ukraine (and maybe Russia someday, off in the distant future). Among other activities, this partnership would deploy a dense network of military trainers in uniform, but not organized in combat formations, throughout those parts of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv, perhaps even before the war ends, to act as a tripwire against future Russian attack.
The stated intent of members of this partnership would be to intervene to protect their trainers if they were ever threatened.
This concept may be too much to propose publicly right now. But the broad contours of a more realistic strategy should no longer be taboo for discussion. NATO leaders owe increasingly skeptical constituents a better answer to David Petraeus’s famous question about Iraq: “Tell me how this ends.”
Michael O’Hanlon is the Phil Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institution and author of “Military History for the Modern Strategist: America’s Major Wars Since 1861.”
Date: | |
Tag: | Ukraine |
-
CBS News - Top stories
How realistic is Biden's plan for Supreme Court reform?
President Biden is pushing for several reforms to the Supreme Court, including term limits, an ethics code for justices and a limit on presidential immunity. However, the proposals are unlikely to become policies amid a divided Congress with less ...1 hr ago - Joe Biden -
The Wall Street Journal - World
What Is Trump's Plan for Ukraine?
Fill in the gaps on those magic 24 hours, please.9 hr ago - Donald Trump -
The Guardian - World
Ukraine war briefing: US to send $1.7bn in military aid to Ukraine, officials say
The aid includes funding for long-term contracts, as well as $200m in immediate military aid taken from Pentagon stockpiles . What we know on day 888. See all our Ukraine war coverage The US will send $1.7bn in military aid to Ukraine, ...3 hr ago - Ukraine -
The Guardian - World
Ukraine war briefing: F-16 fighter jets to carry advanced US weapons – report
Russia claims control of settlement adjoining Toretsk; Ukrainian strike on oil depot in Vozy, Kursk region. What we know on day 889 . The US will arm F-16 fighter jets supplied by other allies to Ukraine with advanced American weapons ...3 hr ago - Ukraine -
Wired - Tech
The Untold Story of How Ridley Scott Saw 'Star Wars'—and Ended Up Making 'Alien'
In 1977, Ridley Scott was considering making a medieval period piece. Then he saw Star Wars and set about making two sci-fi classics, Alien and Blade Runner.16 hr ago -
The Guardian - World
Ukraine’s death-defying art rescuers
When Putin invaded, a historian in Kyiv saw that Ukraine’s cultural heritage was in danger. So he set out to save as much of it as he could. In early March 2022, when his country seemed in danger of falling to the Russians, it occurred to Leonid ...23 hr ago - Ukraine -
The New York Times - World
Ukraine Ramps Up Mobilization of Troops
Large numbers of recruits will arrive at the front in the coming weeks, soldiers and military analysts said, but some are poorly trained or out of shape.14 hr ago - Ukraine -
Financial Times - Business
The global chip war could turn into a cloud war
Security hawks in Washington worry that infrastructure deals risk the future of AI23 hr ago -
The Wall Street Journal - World
Rafael Nadal Confronts the Imperfect Ending
The Spanish legend hoped for a storybook run in Olympic tennis. Novak Djokovic had other ideas.12 hr ago -
The New York Times - Top stories
Israel’s Five Wars
Whatever comes next in Lebanon is a piece in a much larger battle.7 hr ago - Israel
More from The Hill
-
The Hill - Politics
Gallego wins Democratic Senate primary in Arizona
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) has won the Democratic primary in the Arizona Senate race, according to a projection from Decision Desk HQ. Gallego ran uncontested in the Democratic contest to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), and he ...18 min ago -
The Hill - Politics
Durbin says Harris' shift on some policies won't change how people vote
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) downplayed concerns that changes in Vice President Harris’s positions could influence voters in November. Harris’s policy platform has changed somewhat since her 2020 presidential campaign, including now backing fracking, ...31 min ago -
The Hill - Politics
Kelly says Democrats can win his Senate seat if he becomes vice president
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said he’s confident that Democrats can keep his Senate seat in a special election if he is elected vice president, as speculation rises over who Vice President Harris will choose as her running mate. Kelly told CNN’s Manu ...45 min ago -
The Hill - Politics
Trump crypto event remarks delayed due to security concern
Former President Trump's remarks to the annual Bitcoin2024 Conference were delayed last Saturday after two individuals raised security concerns and were removed from the premises ahead of the speech, the U.S. Secret Service told The Hill. "Two ...1 hr ago - Donald Trump -
The Hill - Politics
Harris is sole candidate to qualify for DNC roll call starting Thursday
Top Democrats announced on Tuesday that Vice President Kamala Harris was the only candidate to earn enough delegates to qualify for the virtual roll call to nominate their official presidential candidate, a process that will kick off on Thursday. ...1 hr ago