Morning Report — Sure bet: White House winner faces divided nation

In today’s issue:

Cliffhanger down to the wire
Key House, Senate races to watch
78 million people have voted early
US warns Iran of possible strike

Sure bet: White House winner faces divided nation

In a race to the wire, Vice President Harris will return to Pennsylvania today after focusing on younger voters in Michigan Sunday where she touted “momentum.” Former President Trump returns today to North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania after campaigning Sunday in the Tar Heel State and Georgia.

The usually-jaunty former president conceded Sunday to ABC News that he could lose. “I think I have a pretty substantial lead,” Trump said. “But, you could say, yeah, yeah, you could lose. Bad things could happen. You know, things happen, but it's going to be interesting.”

More than 78 million people have voted early. Millions more are expected to cast ballots by Tuesday. Quality polls in the last days of a suspenseful, wildly unpredictable election hint at some surprises ahead.

Harris appears to have slim leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Arizona. But in seven swing states, the results remain within the margin of sampling error, meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead. Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania are basically tied, which helps explain the states in which the candidates are barnstorming through rewinds of their speeches and get-out-the-vote appeals on the final day.

Many of Trump’s supporters — emboldened by the former president’s false claims of election fraud in 2020 and unverified assertions of interference in this contest — express confidence the former president will return to the White House come January. His supporters’ views that the country is on the wrong track, coupled with trust in Trump’s ability to handle the economy, have buoyed his candidacy since he was selected to be his party’s nominee. That was true for Trump in poll after poll, whether pitted against President Biden or Harris.

But Harris’s backers are just as eager to bet the vice president will win with persuasive messaging that took advantage of her opponent’s self-inflicted distractions in the homestretch and a ground operation that profited from record-setting campaign cash. “We are currently on pace to turn out the voters we need to get to 50%+1 in each battleground state,” Harris campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon told supporters in a Sunday email.

The Hill: Republicans are primed to back Trump if he contests election results, and that includes in Congress. “The Senate is 100 percent aligned with the rest of the party, even more so when it comes to ensuring a fair vote in the swing states,” said John Ullyot, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide and former Trump administration official.

One factor to watch nationwide: An emerging gender gap. The trusted Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday found Harris with a late-breaking lead against Trump in a state he handily won twice. Female voters appear to be an advantage for the vice president there.

▪ The Hill: Harris and Trump each see paths to victory: “Every poll is ridiculously close."

▪ NBC News poll: The network’s final national survey results released Sunday found a tied contest, 49 percent of registered voters for Harris and 49 percent for Trump.

▪ CBS News’s battleground tracker put Harris ahead in the Electoral College tally as of Sunday (226 to Trump’s potential 219).

The election forecast model by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill on Sunday gave Trump a 54 percent chance of winning the presidency.

Catch up on behind-the-scenes reporting:

▪ The Atlantic: Inside the ruthless, restless final days of Trump’s campaign.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Trump campaign manager Susie Wiles, the Florida power broker who guided the GOP’s chance at a return to the White House.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: Trump transition chief Howard Lutnick consults with Elon Musk, Jared Kushner and Wall Street about potential personnel picks for the White House and federal departments.

▪ The Hill: If Trump gets a second term, his vows for revenge would face few limitations.

▪ The New York Times: The many links between Project 2025 and Trump’s world (published Oct. 22 and again Sunday with graphics).

BOB’S SMART TAKE

Trump gave a somewhat surprising response when he was recently asked whether he would consider pardoning Hunter Biden.

“I wouldn’t take it off the books,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.

Of course, Trump first has to win to even have the choice of pardoning the president's son. But he probably won't have to make that call anyway. Why? Because the president will likely address the issue before he leaves office.

Biden has said he won't pardon Hunter or commute his sentence, which would be controversial. However, he has reportedly been upset with the Department of Justice's prosecution of his son. And he has said repeatedly that Hunter did nothing wrong.

This country will need to heal after such a divisive election. Perhaps a dual pardon of Hunter Biden and Trump would help that cause. After all, Trump is not going to prison no matter what happens with his pending cases.

This election is a coin flip, but the odds are high Hunter will get some help from his father before he leaves the Oval Office.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ In the new space race, three Chinese astronauts returned to Earth today after a six-month stay on the Tiangong space station, part of China’s effort to be a global leader in exploration beyond this planet.

▪ Record numbers of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the U.S. after the election. Many fear political and social unrest.

▪ Market changes tied to the election are likely to be short term, if history is a guide.

LEADING THE DAY

THESE ARE THE KEY counties to watchon Election Night.

Control of the House is up for grabs on Tuesday, and political observers of all stripes will be watching with anxious anticipation for early signs of which party will hold the gavel in the next Congress. Election forecasters have singled out dozens of highly contested seats — some of them “toss-ups” and some “leaning” in favor of one party or the other — that will determine whether Republicans keep the majority or Democrats return to power after two years in the minority wilderness.

But not all battleground seats are created equal. The Hill’s Mike Lillis, Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell have rounded up some of the races that might serve as an early barometer of Election Day trends, momentum and which side has the edge in the fight.

The Hill: Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is hoping to outrun Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which has been trending blue and is set to play a key role in the contentious presidential race.

In the Senate, Democrats hold a 51-49 advantage, which Republicans have already sliced into with their pending victory in West Virginia. That leaves them needing only one more seat to win back the upper chamber, with Montana and Ohio being the prime targets. According to Decision Desk HQ, the GOP has a 70 percent chance of wrestling back the Senate. The other matter remains the size of a potential GOP majority, with Republicans sensing opportunity in multiple battleground states as they have tightened in the final weeks.

For the final time of the 2024 cycle, The Hill’s Al Weaver breaks down the top five seats likely to flip, not including the West Virginia seat.

Not on the list, but increasingly a source of hope for Democrats: Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D) is running a competitive contest against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Texas Republicans are making a preemptive push to paint the 2024 election as illegitimate and rife with fraud.

That rhetorical and legal campaign — which has seen longtime GOP claims of illegal voting by Democrats blossom into allegations of a massive conspiracy — comes amid efforts by the Democratic Party to make inroads in the increasingly purple state.

Those claims come as part of “a national Republican commitment to establishing the idea of election fraud,” Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Dallas’s Southern Methodist University, told The Hill’s Saul Elbein, adding that “if Allred should catch [Cruz] on Election Day, [Republicans] want to establish the idea that election fraud is a real, legitimate concern.”

2024 CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP

Risks abroad: The Pentagon has been preparing for pre-inaugural threats if foreign actors, including Iran, North Korea, Russia, China or extremist groups, seek to destabilize the United States during the presidential transition period. Enemies that know how to stoke discord and seek to undermine the outcome of the U.S. election outcome top the list.

Domestic risks: Swing state officials are preparing for potential disruptions around the Dec. 17 Electoral College meetings. In the weeks following Tuesday’s election, results will be certified by state officials, recounts may occur and electors will meet in each state to formally cast their electoral votes. Those votes then go to Washington, D.C., where lawmakers are scheduled to formally count those results during a joint session of Congress Jan. 6. Georgia election officials told CBS’s “60 Minutes” Sunday why they think voters can trust the election process this year.

SNL: A commissioner who was appointed by Trump to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) took to social media Saturday to assert that Harris’s show-opening appearance on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” violated the “equal time” rule. The FCC, however, has not "received a complaint from any interested parties," commission spokesperson Jonathan S. Uriarte, wrote in a statement to Entertainment Weekly. NBC on Sunday filed an “equal time” notice to the FCC, airing a direct-to-viewers address from Trump during the NASCAR 2024 Cup playoff race.

The big picture: CBS News’s John Dickerson on “Sunday Morning” noted how American presidents, once in office, confronted risks and responsibilities that were unforeseen, along with long-looming problems that preoccupied voters. “The first test of the next presidency will come before the oath is taken,” Dickerson said, “in how a candidate manages victory, or in how they don't.”

Trump said that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would have a “big role in the administration” if he wins on Tuesday, telling NBC News in a phone interview that he was open to some of Kennedy’s more controversial ideas — including banning certain vaccines and removing fluoride from drinking water. Kennedy has long spread conspiracy theories about vaccines and public health issues; Trump said Sunday “he’s a very talented guy and has strong views.”

From school finances to how school board elections are run, voters will have the chance to directly decide on important aspects of the education of young people in their states through ballot initiatives.

Voting blocs: While much of the conversation in the closing days of the campaign has surrounded Harris’s soft support among men, Democrats argue that women have the chance to boost Harris. They point to the voting bloc’s role in securing Democratic wins in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections.

Nearly 5 million Americans living abroad are eligible to vote from overseas, representing a small but unique group that could influence the results in key swing states. While participation among overseas voters is considered low, both Harris and Trump have sent out direct appeals to these voters.

Trump and his surrogates in the Arab and Muslim community are doubling down on their efforts to win over the traditionally Democratic constituency amid widespread anger over the Israel-Gaza conflict.

WHERE AND WHEN

🕰️ Reminder: Did you set your clocks back an hour?
The House will convene for a pro forma session Tuesday at 5 p.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session today at 11 a.m.
The president will depart Delaware and return to the White House at midday. Biden will call service members at 3:15 p.m. to extend the commander-in-chief’s appreciation for “recent successful counterterrorism operations” against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
First lady Jill Biden will hit the campaign trail this afternoon to appear at North Carolina events in Winston-Salem, Carrboro and Durham.
Candidate schedules: Harris today will court voters in Pennsylvania, appearing in Scranton, Allentown, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. On Tuesday, she will be in Washington to await election returns and plans an event at her alma mater, Howard University. Today, Trump will campaign in Raleigh, N.C.; Reading, Pa.; Pittsburgh and Grand Rapids, Mich. On Tuesday, the former president plans an election watch party in Palm Beach, Fla. Today, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will hold a meet-and-greet event this morning before leaving his state to campaign in La Crosse, Wis.; Stevens Point, Wis.; Milwaukee and Detroit. Today, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will campaign in four states, specifically La Crosse, Wis.; Flint, Mich.; Atlanta; Aston, Pa. and Newtown, Pa.

ZOOM IN

EARLY VOTING is a bipartisan choice across the country this election cycle and at the moment amounts to more than 48 percent of the total number of 2020 ballots cast — 154.6 million. It’s an indication that early and mail-in voting is the new normal in American politics.

Projections indicate that the overall turnout for the election will probably be between the roughly 60 percent of eligible voters who turned out in 2016 and the two-thirds of eligible voters who voted in 2020, Michael McDonald, a professor of politics at the University of Florida who tracks voting, told The New York Times. The paper’s interviews with voters in the seven battleground states showed Americans exhausted by a tense, close election.

“It’s nerve-racking,” said Gunner Robblee, a 22-year-old hairstylist in Sparks, Nev., who described waiting at the polls during early voting. “The line filled me with anticipation. Every 10 feet, I broke a little sweat.”

While Democrats held a wide advantage over Republicans in early voting four years ago, the gap could be narrower this time. Trump and top GOP officials have urged supporters this year to embrace early voting.

▪ The New York Times: Here is the early vote breakdown.

▪ NBC News: What the early voting data shows about new voters — a group that could swing the election.

▪ Gallup: More than half of U.S. votes likely cast ballots before Election Day.

ELSEWHERE

THE SUPREME COURT will hear an appeal of a Wisconsin telecom provider facing a civil trial under a federal fraud statute for allegedly overcharging schools under the federal E-rate program, which provides discounted internet and other telecommunications services to schools. Wisconsin Bell Inc. is arguing that a False Claims Act suit accusing the company of defrauding the program should be rejected because the suit doesn’t involve government money (Bloomberg Law and EdWeek).

NPR: The Supreme Court Friday left in place a lower court ruling that for now allows Pennsylvania voters to cast provisional ballots if their mail-in ballots have been invalidated, siding with state Democrats on the issue.

INTERNATIONAL

The White House warned Iran in recent days against launching another attack on Israel and stressed it would not be able to restrain the Israelis, Axios reports. After Iran attacked Israel on Oct. 1, in response to a string of Israeli assassinations, Israel responded by targeting military installations, but not nuclear or oil production facilities.

Iran, meanwhile, is asserting it is planning a complex response involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, The Wall Street Journal reports, but Israel’s punishing airstrike on Oct. 26 impacted the country’s strategic air defenses, leaving it badly exposed and sharply raising the risks to Tehran if it follows through.

All those who remain in northern Gaza, especially children, are “at imminent risk of dying” from disease, famine and ongoing bombardments, UNICEF’s executive director warned. Israel renewed its military campaign in the northern part of the enclave in early October, hitting targets and besieging areas in what it said is an effort to stop Hamas from regrouping.

▪ NBC News: Israel announced Sunday that it carried out a ground operation in Syria "in recent months," during which the military said it detained an "Iranian terror network operative.”

▪ The Washington Post: Israelis and Palestinians find little hope in a divisive U.S. election.

▪ The New York Times: Trump or Harris? For Ukraine, two very different futures loom.

▪ The Hill: Taiwan is bracing for the results of the U.S. election, with some officials worried about what a new Trump administration could mean given the former president’s isolationist views.

OPINION

■ Every vote in every state matters, by The New York Times editorial board.

■ The Senate stakes can’t get much higher, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.

THE CLOSER

And finally … Just saying, it’s King Tut Day. A boy king can live forever, if wrapped in gold.

Steve Martin helped.

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger (asimendinger@thehill.com) and Kristina Karisch (kkarisch@thehill.com). Follow us on social media platform X (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends!