Mike Johnson’s moment of truth
The Senate’s Plan B is in place. Now it’s up to Speaker Mike Johnson to deliver on Plan A — the “one big, beautiful bill” he’s been promising for weeks.
It amounts to a key inflection point for President Donald Trump’s domestic policy agenda, and GOP senators — who muscled through their own two-bill legislative blueprint early Friday morning — are eagerly watching to see if Johnson can finally unify his fractious conference and move forward with his own plan.
“I’m pulling for the House to pull together and get one big, beautiful bill,” said Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). If Johnson can do so, he added, “I will be his biggest fan.”
But Johnson is facing major skepticism as he plows forward this week. The Rules Committee will meet Monday to ready the House GOP budget plan for the floor as a group of holdouts concerned about deep cuts to Medicaid and other safety-net programs raise increasingly sharp concerns.
Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas, normally an ally of GOP leadership, led a group of GOP lawmakers to warn against steep cuts to Medicaid, food assistance and Pell Grants. Several Republicans who held town hall meetings during their recess last week faced boos and criticism from constituents concerned about potential cuts.
The public dissent came even after Trump publicly called on both chambers to quickly pass the House GOP budget plan, which tees up $2 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years. Republican leaders at this point think they can muscle the effort through with Trump’s support. But just a few Republicans could block those plans, depending on attendance.
One hard-liner, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has already told fellow Republicans he won’t support Johnson’s blueprint. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), who fellow Republicans have been watching as a likely source of opposition, posted on X Sunday night that she was indeed a “NO.” And New York Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, one of several remaining swing-district holdouts, said she was “still undecided.”
Malliotakis has been talking through her Medicaid concerns with House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.). And her final decision, along with other holdouts, is likely to come down to the wire: She said she plans to talk again with Guthrie Monday and also with GOP leaders as part of a larger group of concerned Republicans. Johnson is planning a Tuesday floor vote.
“We may need to get the president involved,” one House GOP aide said.
The cross-cutting political pressures have some Republican lawmakers on both sides of the Capitol looking across the Rotunda curiously.
As the Senate moved forward on its two-bill plan last week, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri openly wondered why, given Trump’s stated preference, the chamber wasn’t simply moving forward with the House budget. Meanwhile, there are House members who still prefer the Senate’s two-bill approach, with some arguing it delivers more quickly on Trump’s border security promises — and others happy that it sidesteps the messy fight over Medicaid.
Some House Republicans are pushing for the two chambers to resolve their differences over the competing budget plans now, rather than forcing vulnerable Republicans to take a hard vote this week that could cost them in next year’s midterm elections. But any compromise could inflame conservative hard-liners who are demanding steep spending cuts — and whose votes are crucial to winning approval for any House budget.
Another option some holdouts are discussing is to try to amend the budget plan before the final floor vote this week, including by adding cuts undertaken by Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency and additional energy measures as a way to decrease the Medicaid cuts. Opening the bill up on the floor, however, could quickly spiral out of control for Johnson. Party leaders are opposed to offering any concessions to the holdouts, and senior GOP aides don't expect any changes to the plans, according to three Republicans familiar with the private talks who were granted anonymity to describe them.
On the flip side, Johnson is still facing skepticism on the right flank — even after agreeing to increase the level of spending cuts in the plans to $2 trillion. The GOP whip team has been making calls about the $4 trillion debt limit increase provided for in the House budget, a deeply controversial vote among conservative lawmakers. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), who has never voted to lift the debt ceiling, is among those still undecided, according to two Republicans familiar with the matter.
It’s all making Senate Republicans openly skeptical that the House will be able to get its budget across the finish line after weeks of infighting. And it emboldened GOP leaders in that chamber to move forward despite Trump’s endorsement of the “one big, beautiful bill” plan.
“If that [House budget] had already passed this would be a different discussion,” said Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who noted that Johnson sent his members home for a recess rather than stay in town to finish up.
Complicating the GOP agenda further: Even if the House can advance a budget this week, Senate Republicans are expected to change some key components of the plan, teeing up a grueling fight between the chambers.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and seven other GOP senators sent a letter to Trump — conspicuously sending a copy to Johnson — insisting that they won’t support a final bill that only extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts temporarily. That group alone would be enough to prevent any party-line bill from passing.
“The president has called for making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent. And I am committed to ensuring that any tax bill we consider does exactly that,” Thune said on the Senate floor Thursday.
The Senate GOP budget resolution also doesn’t touch Medicaid — and there are already signs of unease there with the kinds of cuts Johnson is staking out. During the Senate’s overnight voting slog last week, Republicans rejected a budget amendment from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to mirror the House GOP’s $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts — suggesting a potential fight to come.
And though no final decision has been made, Senate Republican leaders continue to signal that a debt ceiling increase should be handled on a bipartisan basis — not as part of GOP’s party-line agenda.
“My assumption has always been that the debt ceiling will have to be handled the way it traditionally is,” Thune told reporters last week.
Trump, as always, has been an unpredictable player in the process. After he publicly called on both chambers to approve the House’s budget resolution last week, he and members of his administration continued to raise other options — which the Senate took as a green light to move forward with their competing plan. Trump even thanked Thune in a Truth Social post just before the Senate started voting on its budget — a tacit sign that he was OK with the “optionality” the South Dakota Republican has vowed to provide for Republicans.
How the two sides ultimately work out their disagreements remains to be seen: Leadership and key factions in both chambers could informally work out an agreement, with the Senate adopting those changes when they take up a House-passed budget resolution. Though, some Budget Committee members are floating a formal conference committee to work out the differences.
“What I see happening is the Senate is working toward an objective. The House is working toward the same objective,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). “We’ll go to a conference committee, and we’ll all have a cup of hot cocoa and hug each other.”
Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.
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