Mark Zandi: ‘Recession risks are uncomfortably high and they’re rising’
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, said he thinks the risk for a recession is “uncomfortably high” as the markets react to President Trump’s tariff agenda.
“The recession risks are uncomfortably high and they’re rising,” Zandi said Wednesday on CNN. “I think they’re less than 50/50, but it really does depend on the president, what he does here.”
Trump has faced serious questioning over the effects of his tariff plan, which went into effect, in part, earlier this month.
The stock market has been in flux after the 25 percent tariff was applied to neighboring countries Canada and Mexico. China also received another 10 percent tariff.
Trump walked back tariffs for carts after big auto companies expressed concern, and Canada has threatened to impose its own tariffs.
The president explained the changes, calling it a “flexible” situation, but later doubled down on the April 2 date for more tariffs to go into place.
Zandi said he believes that if Trump continues to push on his tariff plan, including the reciprocal tariffs for other countries, and they stay in place for three to five months, it would be enough to “push the economy into recession.”
“This would be a really weird recession, right? I mean, it’s a recession by design,” he said. “The economy came into the year rip-roaring, exceptionally strong, and we’re pushing it in because of policy.”
Zandi argued that it “just doesn’t feel like that’s the direction we need to go.”
The analyst said he suspects Trump and his administration will at some point say “enough” on the tariffs.
“I don’t say that with confidence,” Zandi cautioned. “And those recession risks are high.”
Trump and his Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have both shown confidence that the U.S. won’t slide into a recession. The president said he would “hate” to predict something like that. Lutnick said he didn’t think there would be a recession, but even if there was, it would be “worth it.”
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