Lower oil and natural gas prices, higher electricity demand expected over next five years: IEA
Natural gas and oil prices are likely to decline in the second half of the decade, but unexpectedly high worldwide demand for electricity will complicate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday in its yearly World Energy Outlook.
Between 2025 and 2030, the supply of oil and gas is expected to increase barring a significant escalation in conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East, IEA said in the report.
Energy supply and demand have whipsawed in the first half of the decade, first plunging in the first year of the coronavirus pandemic and then seeing supply shocks after Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. In the years ahead, the trend indicates a “very different energy world” that includes downward pressure on the prices of those commodities, according to Fatih Birol, executive director at IEA.
Although oil prices have seen spikes amid tensions in the Middle East, record U.S. oil and gas production has offset much of the shock. IEA projected liquefied natural gas to flood world markets over the next five years, largely in the form of exports from the U.S. and Qatar.
However, the report also found that demand for electricity is accelerating faster than earlier predictions, with the demand level now expected for 2035 6 percent higher than the figure the IEA projected in 2023. Much of the projected demand increase is due to data centers, as well as the increased proliferation of air conditioning in countries like India that only recently began to adopt it as heat becomes more extreme.
The projected growth in annual electricity demand is equivalent to a year’s worth of demand from the entire nation of Japan.
“In energy history, we’ve witnessed the Age of Coal and the Age of Oil — and we’re now moving at speed into the Age of Electricity, which will define the global energy system going forward and increasingly be based on clean sources of electricity,” Birol said.
In addition to raising concerns around carbon emissions and climate change, this projected growth will also require significant upgrades to energy storage and grid resilience, according to IEA. The report cites the current vulnerabilities of electrical grids to extreme weather events, such as the winter storms that knocked out Texas’s self-contained Electric Reliability Council of Texas grid in 2021.
Overall, worldwide carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak in the near future, according to IEA, but the decline after the peak is currently projected to be too gradual to avert the 1.5 degrees of warming above preindustrial levels agreed to as a limit in the Paris Climate Agreement.
Date: |
-
Business - MarketWatch
Oil prices down for 4th straight session as traders weigh supply and demand
Crude futures on Wednesday marked a fourth straight session of declines, with prices holding ground at their lowest in two weeks as traders focused on an uncertain demand outlook — particularly ...1 hour ago -
Business - Financial Times
Air conditioning will be major driver of electricity demand, says IEA
Higher temperatures and rising incomes could boost power demand coming from home cooling units by 280% by 205016 hours ago -
Business - MarketWatch
Global electricity demand to double by 2050, IEA’s World Energy Outlook says
Electricity demand is set to increase at levels equivalent to adding a new Japan to the world each year, the International Energy Agency said8 hours ago -
Top stories - The New York Times
Global Electricity Demand Is Rising Faster Than Expected, I.E.A. Says
A surge in power use worldwide could make it harder for nations to slash emissions and keep global warming in check.16 hours ago -
Business - MarketWatch
Lower oil prices are good for consumers — but a bad sign for the global economy
A significant drop in oil prices may offer consumers reason to celebrate, but it also hints at an economic slowdown in China, the world’s second largest economy.11 hours ago -
Business - Financial Times
Reeves cuts National Wealth Fund budget despite UK investment drive
Chancellor’s decision comes as government seeks to work with private sector to decarbonise economy2 days ago - United Kingdom -
Business - CNBC
U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 2% after OPEC cuts demand forecast again
Soft demand in China has weighed on the market for months.2 days ago
More from The Hill
-
Politics - The Hill
Harris enters unfriendly territory
Welcome to The Hill's Campaign newsletter {beacon} Campaign Report Campaign Report The Big Story Harris enters unfriendly territory Vice President Harris is entering unfriendly territory with a ...12 minutes ago - Kamala Harris -
Politics - The Hill
Washington lawmakers press Boeing, union to resolve monthlong strike
Four Democratic lawmakers from the state of Washington this week urged Boeing and the union representing striking machinists around Seattle and Portland, Ore., to resolve the labor dispute. Around ...40 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
Supreme Court declines to block Biden's climate rule for power plants — for now
The Supreme Court on Wednesday declined to block a Biden administration rule setting climate standards for power plants — but hinted it could take up the case at a later time. The high court ...1 hour ago - Climate -
Politics - The Hill
Allred backs oil in bid to take down Cruz
Welcome to The Hill's Sustainability newsletter {beacon} Sustainability Sustainability The Big Story Allred backs oil in bid to take down Cruz In Texas’ tight and acrimonious Senate race, there ...1 hour ago -
Politics - The Hill
Pentagon confirms 'incursions' of unauthorized drones over Air Force base
The Pentagon has confirmed a number of “unauthorized” drone flights last year in restricted airspace over a Virginia base that houses the nation’s most advanced fighter jets. The Wall Street ...1 hour ago