Lessons from 2024: Presidential campaigns are pointless

All those annoying TV ads, interrupting online ads and irritating texts, not to mention a forest of mail and yard signs littering the landscape — they were all for nothing. For the past year, all signs pointed to a Trump win. Maybe not exactly this win, but a win nonetheless.

It’s the inflation, stupid! And an uncontrolled border and a non-existent national security policy. In short, the Biden administration has been a failure for most Americans.

Starting in the second half of 2023, the political ground shifted decisively against Joe Biden and the Democrats. Nobody seemed to notice among the media elites and the chattering classes of both the left and the right, as they were all consumed with Donald Trump’s trials. While the political junkies were watching the ridiculous circus, millions of Americans were watching their budgets getting squeezed, homes and cars become unaffordable and health insurance costs rising.

I noted in this column back in February that Biden’s polling had taken a clear and durable fall. Trump had taken solid leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada — all states he had lost in 2020. That lead was echoed in several polls. Biden had hit a similar inflection point in the aftermath of his incompetent Afghanistan withdrawal, where his approval went from positive to deeply negative and never recovered.

The Biden administration had to make a drastic policy turn. And yet, drunk on fawning praise from the establishment and blinded by antipathy to anything Trump, they either could not or would not see the writing on the wall. They dismissed inflation as transitory, calling its seriousness invented by their political opponents.

News flash: When you can’t afford your bills, a candidate’s heritage counts for nothing.

The combination of nominal inflation and rocketing interest rates raised the cost of financing a house or car by over 80 percent. While upper-middle-income families could give themselves a break by eschewing Whole Foods for Wal-Mart, all those middle- and low-income people already at Wal-Mart have nowhere to go. Not only has inflation been a problem, that problem has been way underestimated.

Looking at the polling immediately prior to the election compared to a year ago tells the tale.

The most recent YouGov benchmark had inflation as the top issue, clearing immigration by 11 points overall and by 14 points with independents. More voters cited inflation as “very important,” more than any other issue, at 77 percent for all voters, 81 percent for independents and 80 percent for Hispanics.

One year ago, the YouGov benchmark also had inflation as the top issue, 12 points ahead of health care for all voters and 11 points ahead for independents. Voters called inflation “very important” at 75 percent, with independents at 77 percent and Hispanics at 86 percent.

Meanwhile, the prime Democratic issues of abortion, climate change and civil justice reform score next to nothing. Abortion is the top issue for 9 percent of voters, only 8 percent of independents and 6 percent of Hispanics. Climate change is cited as “very important” by 65 percent of Democrats and 73 percent of liberals, but only 38 percent of independents and 47 percent of Hispanics — practically at the bottom of all issues.

Kamala Harris and the Democrats staked everything on their message against Trump — and failed miserably. Donald Trump is a greedy billionaire who wants to help his friends. He’s a danger to democracy. He’s unstable. My favorite: Trump is a liar.

Well of course — he’s a politician, and that’s part of the job description. And sure, Trump lies plenty. But much of what the Democrats squawked about was just typical political hyperbole. And even worse, the biggest lie of the election cycle by far was that Joe Biden is mentally capable of handling the job.

The whole Democratic narrative failed miserably. Consider that the final YouGov poll had Harris with an even 48 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable, and that the RealClearPolitics average had her at negative 2.7 percent — the best among all political leaders. Meanwhile, Trump is mired at 44 percent favorable and 54 percent unfavorable in the YouGov poll, and at minus-7 points with RCP at just 44.9 percent favorable.

A clear majority of Americans do not like Trump, yet a substantial number of those who dislike him still voted for him. Trump could never have won without voters who disapprove of him personally. Even a combination of voters who like Trump and are ambivalent about Trump would not have been enough.

Trump ran a bad campaign. He left a lot on the table. The race was close until the final days, when all indications are that voters on the fence voted on the big issues — and that meant a vote for Trump.

Of course, the Democrats don’t want to admit the Biden administration is a failure. They don’t want to admit their policies don’t work for most Americans. They cannot stomach admitting Trump voters are justified. It’s racism, sexism, “sane-washing,” and on and on.

Trump was outspent (by far), harried by a bevy of legal troubles. He remained undisciplined as always. The entire legacy media acted as a de facto megaphone for the Democrats, to the point that it’s difficult to figure out what more they could have done to help Harris. Yet Trump still won.

The big issues — and, by inference, the big failures — carried the day. It’s worth mentioning that Trump made big gains in safe Democratic states where Trump did nothing. As of the writing of this column, he had gained 5 points in New Jersey, 6 points in New York and 4 points in Connecticut against his 2020 results. He even improved his percentage in Minnesota, home of his opponent's running-mate.

In the final analysis, this race started slipping away from the Democrats in 2023. It was already lost well before Biden was forced to quit. All the ads, campaign stunts, conventions and breathless punditry counted for nothing. Trump showed that results matter more than personalities or anything else.

And he’d better remember that.

Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.