Is uncontrolled immigration the cause of rising crime in the US?

In a letter dated Dec. 8, 2023, Texas Congressman Pete Sessions and 22 of his Republican colleagues expressed concern to the Government Accountability Office about the fact that, in fiscal 2023, U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered 2.48 million migrants nationwide who were attempting to make an unauthorized entry. In addition, over the past three years, an estimated 1.7 million illegal border crossers have entered the U.S. undetected.

The lawmakers were particularly worried about the possibility that uncontrolled immigration is causing a rise in crime rates in major cities. So, they asked GAO to update its July 17, 2018, report that “provided data on the number and nationality of noncitizens incarcerated in federal and state prisons and local jails.”

They expected the updated report to provide “crucial information regarding the current state of illegal immigration.” Although GAO eventually did issue a report, the update doesn’t provide the information Congress needs to determine the extent to which uncontrolled immigration is contributing to an increase in crime in our major cities.

The problem is, no one knows how many of the 5.4 million inadmissible migrants the Biden-Harris administration has released into the country are committing crimes. Nor does anyone know how many of the almost 2 million "got-aways" are committing crimes.

The value of the report is diminished by the fact that it bases its statistics and comparisons on “noncitizens” instead of on migrants who entered the country illegally during the current administration. The Department of Homeland Security uses the term “noncitizen” to refer to all migrants, which includes migrants who are here legally in addition to migrants who are here in violation of our laws.

Law professor Kevin R. Johnson has praised the use of this term because it acknowledges the humanity of non-Americans. Yet the term blurs the distinction between legal and illegal migrants, as it did with Session’s request.

GAO’s report finds that “the number of noncitizens incarcerated [in federal prisons] decreased approximately 33 percent from year-end 2017 (36,000 noncitizens) to year-end 2022 (24,000 noncitizens).” It also found the proportion of incarcerated noncitizens decreased “from 19 percent of the federal prison population at year-end of 2018 to 15 percent ... at year-end 2022.”

These statistics include the criminal activity of migrants who are here legally, which is not relevant to whether uncontrolled “illegal immigration” is causing an increase in crime.

Another limitation is that federal agencies do not collect comprehensive information about the citizenship of inmates in state prisons or local jails, and only 10 percent of the 1.9 million inmates in the United States are incarcerated in federal prisons. The rest are in state and local facilities. This includes those in “1,566 state prisons, 3,116 local jails, 1,323 juvenile correctional facilities, and 80 Indian country jails.”

According to the CATO Institute, “Texas is the only state that records criminal convictions and arrests by immigration status.” The practice varies from place to place in the rest of the states. “Texas has this information,” says CATO, “because its law enforcement agencies work with federal immigration enforcement authorities [who check] the biometric information of arrestees in the state and track them through to their convictions.”

The federal Bureau of Justice Assistance is another source of information about migrants who are incarcerated in state prisons or local jails. On Dec. 31 of each year, the bureau collects information about the citizenship of inmates in state prisons and local jails for its annual report on the State Criminal Alien Assistance Program, in order to provide federal reimbursements to some prisons and jails for the cost of incarcerating undocumented criminal immigrants.

In general, GAO’s citizenship information was self-reported, which may not be reliable. It seems very unlikely that migrants who made the expensive, risky journey to the U.S. and entered illegally would admit if they are not American citizens. This almost certainly would result in questions about their immigration status.

The journey through central America to reach the U.S. is extremely dangerous. This is particularly true of passage through the jungles of the Darien Gap. And the International Organization of Migration says that the U.S.-Mexico border is the “deadliest land migration route” in the world. “By August 2024,” it says, “a minimum of 5,405 persons had died or gone missing along this border since 2014.”

The report claims that, for approximately 75 percent of the offenses noncitizens in federal prisons committed from fiscal 2018 through fiscal 2023, “the most serious...was immigration-related.” Maybe, but that percentage doesn’t apply to the 662,566 noncitizens on the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcemen national docket.

According to ICE Deputy Director Patrick J. Lechleitner, “As of July 21, 2024, there were 662,566 noncitizens with criminal histories on ICE’s national docket. Of these, 435,719 are convicted criminals, and 226,847 have pending criminal charges.”

Their offenses include13,099 homicides; 15,811 sexual assaults; 2,521 kidnappings; 13,423 weapon offenses; 10,031 robberies; 56,533 dangerous drug offenses; 14,301 burglaries; 62,231 non-sexual assaults; 15,979 fraudulent activities; and 18,234 larcenies.

Although Lechleitner’s report uses the term “noncitizens” too, it limits its statistics to immigrants on ICE’s docket, and all of the noncitizens on ICE’s docket list are subject to removal proceedings if they haven’t already had their hearings. The list doesn’t include undocumented migrants the Biden-Harris administration released into the country who are not on the docket yet.

It may never be possible to know what impact uncontrolled immigration is having on crime rates in the U.S. But that doesn’t mean the next administration can’t find ways to identify and arrest undocumented migrants who are dangerous criminals and remove them from the country.

That is, if the next administration doesn’t continue the practices of the current one.

Nolan Rappaport was detailed to the House Judiciary Committee as an Executive Branch Immigration Law Expert for three years. He subsequently served as an immigration counsel for the Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims for four years. Prior to working on the Judiciary Committee, he wrote decisions for the Board of Immigration Appeals for 20 years.