QuikReader

QuikReader

  • Latest
  • Top stories
  • Business
  • Tech
  • World
  • Politics
  • Sports
  • Lifestyle
  • Health
  • Science
  • Entertainment
  • More
    • Sources
Sign in
  1. Politics
  2. Sources
  3. The Hill
  4. Just In News

Is the US headed toward a recession?

Is the US headed toward a recession?
Close

Thank you for signing up!

Subscribe to more newsletters here

The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Sign up for the 12:30 Report newsletter
{beacon}
The Hill logo

12:30 REPORT

It’s Monday. Who else cannot stop trying to mimic Parker Posey’s accent in this season of “The White Lotus?” This clip of Posey on NBC’s “Today” is all over my social media feeds. (The viral clip is around the 2-minute, 15-second mark.) 

Today's forecast in DC: ⛅ 66° (Find your weather here)

In today's issue:

  • Trump won’t rule out a recession
  • Stocks tumble
  • Republicans worry about Trump’s tariffs
  • Supreme Court will hear conversion therapy case
  • Johnson’s plan to avoid a shutdown
 

Stock market may want a wellness retreat:

Tuesday marks President Trump’s 50th day in office, which has been a whirlwind of economic changes — most notably his tariffs on the U.S.’s neighbors — that have wobbled the stock markets.

 

On the campaign trail: Trump promised an economic boom by stopping inflation, lowering prices and cutting taxes. He repeatedly slammed the Biden administration’s policies for stifling the U.S. economy.

 

But now, Trump is recalibrating expectations: Over the weekend, Trump wouldn’t rule out the possibility of an economic recession, telling Fox News on Sunday there would be a “period of transition” for the U.S. “I hate to predict things like that,” Trump told Fox’s Maria Bartiromo when asked if he expected a recession this year.

 

^ This sent a shockwave through the market this morning: U.S. stocks tumbled even further this morning after Trump’s weekend comments. The Dow opened down 1 percent, the S&P fell by 2 percent and Nasdaq dropped by 3.2 percent.

 

And Republicans are worried about the economy: The Hill’s Alexander Bolton spoke with a number of Republican senators who expressed concern about the impacts of Trump’s trade policies on the U.S. economy.

 

The tea — one Republican senator requested anonymity to speak candidly: “Maybe if his approvals keep diving and the economy starts to pinch, maybe” Trump will shift on tariffs, “but in the meantime, what damage are we doing? … Tomorrow, he might lift all these sanctions that he just put on yesterday. It’s crazy.”

 

What are other officials saying about the economy?:

  • The Fed chair is worried about rising prices: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell predicted that Trump’s tariffs will raise consumer prices in the U.S. "We're at a stage where we're still very uncertain about what will be tariffed, for how long, at what level," Powell said at an economic forum Friday. "But the likelihood is some of that will find its way. It will hit the exporters, the importers, the retailers and, to some extent, consumers."

  • FWIW, Trump’s Commerce head disagrees about a potential recession: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick immediately dismissed the suggestion of a forthcoming recession, telling NBC News’s “Meet the Press” “absolutely not” when asked whether Americans should brace for a recession.

How is the economy doing?: February’s jobs report was steady but showed a slight uptick in the unemployment level. Some experts warn that Trump’s recent mass layoffs within the federal government may not be reflected until the next jobs report.

 

Economics 101 — what is a recession?: A recession happens when the economy declines for two consecutive quarters.

 

Do economists think we’re headed for a recession?: Some economists (and betting markets) are increasing the odds of a recession, per Business Insider. But CNBC reports that while economists think Trump is an “agent of chaos,” they generally think the economy is resilient.

 

➤  MORE READS:

  • The Washington Post: As Trump intensifies his efforts, new sources of opposition include some of his loyal advisers
    The New York Times: Trump’s Tactics Lead Americans to Question Role on World Stage
  • The Associated Press: Meet the federal worker who went rogue: ‘I hope that it lights a fire under people’
  • The Wall Street Journal: Inside America’s Fluoride Rebellion

🛑 On Capitol Hill

 

What you’re going to be hearing *a lot* about this week:

©  AP

At the end of last year, Republican lawmakers punted the government funding deadline until President Trump retook office. They were hoping they wouldn’t have to negotiate with Democrats quite as much because they would control the House, the Senate and the White House.

 

Welp, we will hit that new deadline this week and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is still having a hard time corralling his caucus into a plan.

 

So, what’s the plan?: House Republicans unveiled their plan Saturday. Fund the government through Sept. 30 with a boost in defense spending and a cut on spending for nearly everything else. Trump endorsed the plan and Johnson is hoping to pass it on Tuesday to give the Senate the rest of the week to pass it. Easy enough? 🔎 Read the bill

 

Ha, nothing is ever easy in Congress: Republicans’ margins are even tighter in the House. Most (if not all) Democrats are likely to vote against the bill — they slammed this plan over “reckless” cuts to a number of benefits. That means Johnson would need all but one Republican to vote “yes.”

 

Cracks are already forming: A few conservatives and moderate Republicans are already undecided on the bill. And even if the bill does make it out of the House, Republicans would need at least seven Democrats to clear the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

 

Expect a busy week on Capitol Hill as lawmakers sort that out.

 

Oh, and I should mention: House Democrats are planning to travel to Leesburg, Va., for their annual retreat from Wednesday through Friday. TBD whether that actually happens given the funding fight. The governors of Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Michigan are scheduled to speak, per Politico.

 

➤  INTERESTING READ:

The Atlantic’s Mark Leibovich sat down with former Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), who has butted heads with President Trump for years.

 

Read: ‘Mitch McConnell and the President He Calls “Despicable”’

🏛️ News This Morning

 

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a conversion therapy case: 

“The Supreme Court granted a Colorado therapist’s request to review her challenge to a state law banning mental health care providers from engaging minors in conversion therapy, a discredited practice that attempts to change a person’s sexual orientation or gender identity to align with heterosexual or cisgender norms,” reports The Hill’s Brooke Migdon.

 

Why this is particularly notable: “The court’s decision to take up her challenge comes after the justices previously turned away opportunities to weigh in on conversion therapy bans. The case is set to be heard during the Supreme Court’s next annual term, which starts in October.” Read more on the case

🐝 Internet Buzz

 

🥬 Celebrate: Today is National Ranch Dressing Day. As if you fanatics needed another reason to go overboard with the stuff! 😉

🕊️ What happened to Gene Hackman?: Authorities have confirmed the causes of death for actor Gene Hackman and his wife Betsy Arakawa, who were both found dead in their home. She died of hantavirus and he died a few days later from heart disease. What we know

📆 On The Agenda

 

The House and Senate are in. President Trump and Vice President Vance are in Washington, D.C. (all times Eastern)

 
  • This week: The SXSW Conference and Festivals. 💻 Livestream 🔎 Details and lineup
  • 2 p.m.: Trump holds a roundtable with the Technology CEO Council.
  • 2 p.m.: Vance speaks at the National League of Cities's Congressional City Conference. 💻 Livestream
  • 3 p.m.: Trump signs executive orders.
  • 5 p.m.: Trump ceremonially swears in the director of the Secret Service.
  • 5:30 p.m.: Two Senate votes, including a confirmation vote on Labor secretary nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer. 📆 Today’s agenda
  • 6:30 p.m.: First and last House votes. 📆 Today’s agenda

👋 And Finally…

 

To brighten your Monday afternoon, check out these Houston Zoo animals’ first experience with snow.

Stay Engaged

 

Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.

 

View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time!

Read more at The Hill
  Save story

Topics

  • Recession
  • Trump
  • Rule
  • Head
  • Rule Recession

Related

  • The US economy is heading for recession

    Donald Trump’s policy agenda is sapping American animal spirits
    Financial Times - 1d
  • ‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs

    ‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs

    US president downplays recent stock market volatility that followed his ducking and weaving over tariff policy. US politics live – latest updates Donald Trump on Sunday refused to rule out the ...
    The Guardian - 23h

  • Trump’s first 50 days: Stocks heading toward worst start to a presidential term since 2009

    The first 50 days of President Donald Trump’s second term have brought heightened volatility to financial markets already worried about slowing economic growth in the world’s largest economy.
    MarketWatch - 2h
  • Would Trump Risk a Recession?

    Would Trump Risk a Recession?

    The president still believes that his protectionist trade policies will be “great for us” in the long run, but won’t rule out short-term economic pain.
    The New York Times - 7h
  • No DOGE, No Deal: A Battle Over Elon Musk’s Team Risks a Government Shutdown

    No DOGE, No Deal: A Battle Over Elon Musk’s Team Risks a Government Shutdown

    The government is headed toward a shutdown unless a deal is reached by March 14. And disagreements over DOGE may be the biggest roadblock.
    Inc. - 2d
  • Bourbon is out, patriotism is in - how Canadians are facing US threats head on

    Bourbon is out, patriotism is in - how Canadians are facing US threats head on

    Across the country, Canadians are defiant in boycotting American goods and travel even as Trump promises another temporary reprieve.
    BBC News - 2d
  • Trump is making Europe great again

    Trump is making Europe great again

    The US president has provided the biggest stimulus towards European integration since the end of the cold war
    Financial Times - 7h
  • How the gold bullion boom sent a US recession alarm blaring

    How the gold bullion boom sent a US recession alarm blaring

    Gold-adjusted GDP forecasts. Really!
    Financial Times - 4h
  • Wall Street suffers ‘ugly’ sell-off amid US recession fears, as Musk’s Tesla falls 50% from all–time high – business live

    Wall Street suffers ‘ugly’ sell-off amid US recession fears, as Musk’s Tesla falls 50% from all–time high – business live

    Volatility soars and shares slide after Beijing imposes tariffs on imports of agricultural goods from America. Analysts at investment bank Jefferies remain optimistic about the prospects for the ...
    The Guardian - 2h
  • Lutnick: ‘There’s going to be no recession in America’

    Lutnick: ‘There’s going to be no recession in America’

    Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick shot down the possibility of a forthcoming recession in America, in an interview on NBC News’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “Absolutely not,” Lutnick said when asked ...
    The Hill - 1d
  • Trump does not rule out recession as he rejects business fears over tariffs

    Trump does not rule out recession as he rejects business fears over tariffs

    US administration concedes some prices might rise as fears grow of trade chaos causing disruption
    Financial Times - 1d

  • Canada to choose new leader to face Trump in trade war with US

    Former central banker Mark Carney favoured over Chrystia Freeland to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal party head
    Financial Times - 1d
  • CCP Games appoints Head of Economy for Eve Frontier

    CCP Games appoints Head of Economy for Eve Frontier

    CCP Games has hired Stefán Þórarinsson as its Head of Economy to roll out new updates and research for Eve Frontier.
    VentureBeat - 3d
  • Risk of ‘Trumpcession’ rising, economists say, as global markets fall

    Risk of ‘Trumpcession’ rising, economists say, as global markets fall

    Donald Trump’s brinkmanship and stop-start approach to tariffs rattle investors. Business live – latest updates The risk that the US economy will enter recession this year is rising, according ...
    The Guardian - 2h
  • Recession Risks Rise Over Tariff Chaos, Polls Find

    Recession Risks Rise Over Tariff Chaos, Polls Find

    U.S. inflation risks have worsened, while recession risks are also mounting for Mexico, Canada and the U.S., the surveys found.
    Inc. - 3d

  • Trump doesn't rule out recession, rising inflation

    In an interview with Fox News, President Trump acknowledged inflation could continue to rise and wouldn't say whether or not he thinks the U.S. economy could fall into a recession. Nikole Killion ...
    CBS News - 18h
  • How Trump's threats have revived Canada's Liberal Party

    How Trump's threats have revived Canada's Liberal Party

    Justin Trudeau's party was headed for near-certain defeat - until the US president said he wanted to make Canada the 51st state.
    BBC News - 1d
  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says 'there’s going to be no recession in America'

    Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says 'there’s going to be no recession in America'

    Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick said that Americans should "absolutely not" brace for a recession as President Donald Trump plans to implement far-reaching tariffs.
    NBC News - 1d

  • Treasury yields tumble as stocks skid on tariff concerns, U.S. recession talk

    Bond yields fell sharply Monday after President Donald Trump shrugged off the possibility that his policies would cause a recession.
    MarketWatch - 5h
  • Americans should ‘absolutely not’ brace for recession despite bank warnings: Commerce secretary

    Americans should ‘absolutely not’ brace for recession despite bank warnings: Commerce secretary

    In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick says Americans should “absolutely not” brace for a recession amid warning signs from major banks like JP Morgan and ...
    NBC News - 1d
  • Trump doesn't rule out recession as trade war stirs uncertainty

    Trump doesn't rule out recession as trade war stirs uncertainty

    As President Donald Trump doubles down on his escalating trade war against some of the country’s biggest economic partners, he is declining to rule out a recession as economic uncertainty grows. ...
    NBC News - 7h
  • WATCH: High school runner hit in head with baton during race

    WATCH: High school runner hit in head with baton during race

    Junior Kaelen Tucker was running the second leg of the 4x200 relay in the Virginia State High School League Championships when another athlete struck her in the head with a baton.
    ABC News - 3h
  • Manchester City Women sack head coach Gareth Taylor as Cushing returns

    Manchester City Women sack head coach Gareth Taylor as Cushing returns

    City are fourth in WSL but in Champions League last eight Former manager Nick Cushing named interim manager Manchester City Women have sacked their head coach, Gareth Taylor, just five days ...
    The Guardian - 2h
  • Trump on if he's expecting recession this year: 'I hate to predict things like that'

    Trump on if he's expecting recession this year: 'I hate to predict things like that'

    President Trump faced a slew of questions about the economic ripple effects of his tariff policy during an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News, including whether he worried about a looming ...
    The Hill - 1d

  • Eye Opener: President Trump declines to rule out possible recession

    President Trump doesn't rule out a possible recession while Canada's new prime minister talks tough on the trade war with the U.S. Also, House Republicans unveiled a plan to prevent a government ...
    CBS News - 6h

  • President Trump doesn't rule out a recession amid tariffs against allies

    President Trump on Sunday defended his tariffs against some of the United States' allies. However, the continental trade war has rattled global markets and sparked concerns about a possible ...
    CBS News - 6h
  • Report: 49ers, Joey Bosa having "good conversations"

    Report: 49ers, Joey Bosa having "good conversations"

    Signs continue to point toward the Bosa brothers teaming up on the 49ers' defense.
    Yahoo Sports - 1d

  • Trump doesn't rule out possibility of recession, Chinese retaliatory tariffs go into effect

    President Trump said in a Fox News interview that aired over the weekend that inflation could continue to rise, but he wouldn't say if the U.S. could fall into a recession later this year. ...
    CBS News - 6h
  • Trump turns screws on Zelensky heading into Jeddah talks

    Trump turns screws on Zelensky heading into Jeddah talks

    President Trump is inflicting mounting pain on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of planned talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, as U.S. officials look to secure concessions Trump can bring ...
    The Hill - 1h
  • Purdue star Trey Kaufman-Renn alleges racist comments made by Illinois fans toward 13-year-old brother

    Purdue star Trey Kaufman-Renn alleges racist comments made by Illinois fans toward 13-year-old brother

    Purdue is reportedly planning to file a report to the Big Ten over the incident
    CBS Sports - 2d
  • Heat's Bam Adebayo fined $50K for outburst toward official after controversial loss to Timberwolves

    Heat's Bam Adebayo fined $50K for outburst toward official after controversial loss to Timberwolves

    Adebayo made contact with a ref and directed profane language their way
    CBS Sports - 1d

  • The UK’s academic recession is in full swing

    This university crisis is a grim scrabble for numbers
    Financial Times - 3h
  • Stocks Drop as Recession Fears Surface

    Stocks Drop as Recession Fears Surface

    Investors fear that tit-for-tat tariffs could raise prices, slow the economy and sow uncertainty among businesses.
    The New York Times - 14m
  • Ex-Cyclone Alfred floods live updates: emergency disaster relief payment for loss of income approved; Brisbane and NSW flooding; flood evacuation warnings – latest news

    Ex-Cyclone Alfred floods live updates: emergency disaster relief payment for loss of income approved; Brisbane and NSW flooding; flood evacuation warnings – latest news

    Follow today’s news live. Full report: residents warned to head for high ground as flood waters rise Send us your photographs and videos of ex-Cyclone Alfred Get our breaking news email , ...
    The Guardian - 11h
  • Typing loudly, wearing AirPods: ‘taskmasking’ is how gen Z pretends to work at the office

    Typing loudly, wearing AirPods: ‘taskmasking’ is how gen Z pretends to work at the office

    As more companies mandate a return to the office, young workers learn to game the system to take back control. As employers crack down on hybrid work, insisting that the US corporate class head ...
    The Guardian - 5h
  • Eddie George could soon be Bowling Green's new head football coach

    Eddie George could soon be Bowling Green's new head football coach

    Former NFL running back Eddie George could be moving up in the coaching world.
    Yahoo Sports - 1d
  • Eddie George agrees to become Bowling Green's next head coach

    Eddie George agrees to become Bowling Green's next head coach

    George led Tennessee State to the FCS playoffs in 2024.
    Yahoo Sports - 1d
  • 'There's never been a spotlight like this': Greenland heads to the polls as Trump eyes territory

    'There's never been a spotlight like this': Greenland heads to the polls as Trump eyes territory

    Donald Trump's vow to take over Greenland has shone a global spotlight on the island's elections.
    BBC News - 4h

  • Tesla shares plunge 14%, head for worst day in five years

    Tesla continued its downward slide on Monday, with the stock suffering its most dramatic selloff since September 2020.
    CNBC - 47m

More from The Hill

  • Trump economic adviser: 'First quarter is going to squeak into the positive category'

    Trump economic adviser: 'First quarter is going to squeak into the positive category'

    National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday that the “first quarter is going to squeak into the positive category” even as anxieties around the economy rise nationwide. Stocks were ...
    The Hill - 14m
  • Trump wants to go after criminal networks. A new approach to sanctions is needed.

    Trump wants to go after criminal networks. A new approach to sanctions is needed.

    President Trump has designated international drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and a National Security Presidential Memorandum has been issued to intensify sanctions against Iran, ...
    The Hill - 17m
  • GOP's Bacon: Trump repeating Taliban mistake in Ukraine talks

    GOP's Bacon: Trump repeating Taliban mistake in Ukraine talks

    Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said President Trump is repeating mistakes he made in Afghanistan by not including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in talks to end his country’s war with Russia. ...
    The Hill - 19m
  • Dow plunges 1,000 points as recession fears, tariffs scare Wall Street

    Dow plunges 1,000 points as recession fears, tariffs scare Wall Street

    The stock market kicked off the week with steep losses Monday amid growing concern about the state of the U.S. economy and the impact of President Trump's trade policy. The Dow Jones Industrial ...
    The Hill - 27m
  • Former USAID employees on cuts: 'We are going to put lives in jeopardy'

    Former USAID employees on cuts: 'We are going to put lives in jeopardy'

    Two former employees of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), who were terminated last month, told CNN the 83 percent spending cuts announced by Secretary of State Marco on Monday ...
    The Hill - 33m

More in Politics

  • Trump economic adviser: 'First quarter is going to squeak into the positive category'

    Trump economic adviser: 'First quarter is going to squeak into the positive category'

    National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday that the “first quarter is going to squeak into the positive category” even as anxieties around the economy rise nationwide. Stocks were ...
    The Hill - 14m
  • Trump wants to go after criminal networks. A new approach to sanctions is needed.

    Trump wants to go after criminal networks. A new approach to sanctions is needed.

    President Trump has designated international drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and a National Security Presidential Memorandum has been issued to intensify sanctions against Iran, ...
    The Hill - 17m
  • GOP's Bacon: Trump repeating Taliban mistake in Ukraine talks

    GOP's Bacon: Trump repeating Taliban mistake in Ukraine talks

    Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said President Trump is repeating mistakes he made in Afghanistan by not including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in talks to end his country’s war with Russia. ...
    The Hill - 19m
  • Dow plunges 1,000 points as recession fears, tariffs scare Wall Street

    Dow plunges 1,000 points as recession fears, tariffs scare Wall Street

    The stock market kicked off the week with steep losses Monday amid growing concern about the state of the U.S. economy and the impact of President Trump's trade policy. The Dow Jones Industrial ...
    The Hill - 27m
  • Former USAID employees on cuts: 'We are going to put lives in jeopardy'

    Former USAID employees on cuts: 'We are going to put lives in jeopardy'

    Two former employees of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), who were terminated last month, told CNN the 83 percent spending cuts announced by Secretary of State Marco on Monday ...
    The Hill - 33m
© 2025 QuikReader - About - Terms - Privacy