How third-party candidates could make a difference in swing states

Third-party candidates will be on the ballot in all of the top battleground states, drawing increased scrutiny over how they could influence the outcome of the presidential election in two weeks.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are statistically tied in many of these swing states, meaning a percentage point or two going to another candidate could change the outcome of the White House race.

Green Party nominee Jill Stein is now the most prominent third-party candidate, but others — including independent Cornel West and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver — are also still running. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has since withdrawn and endorsed Trump, will still appear on a couple of key ballots.

Here’s where the third-party candidates stand in critical swing states:

Arizona

Election analysts expect Arizona to be called earlier this November than last cycle, but having two outsiders by way of Stein and Oliver on the ticket means the results could still be messy.

Stein is ahead with Muslim American voters in the Grand Canyon State, while Oliver’s presence in the race decreases the turnout for both Trump and Harris, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College survey.

Georgia

Trump’s lead in Georgia — 8 points according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average — has flustered Democrats who saw long-term success on the horizon after 2020. But Georgia’s blue tilt is less certain this cycle. A surge of early in-person voting started last week, with more than a million voters casting ballots.

Election handicappers don’t expect Stein, whose name will appear on the ballot, to play as big a role in Georgia as she could in places like Wisconsin or Michigan, where she amassed support eight years ago. But any outside candidate — including Oliver, who hails from neighboring Tennessee and ran in the special election for Georgia’s 5th Congressional District in 2020 — still could tempt voters to cast a protest ballot.

Michigan

For the third-party curious, Kennedy and Stein offer a powerful duo in Michigan. It’s one place Stein siphoned off enough voters from Hillary Clinton to help Trump’s first presidential run and where Democrats are determined to keep her down.

Democrats believe any support of Stein in the Great Lakes State will detract from Harris, who is struggling separately with the state’s Arab American population, which has partly defected over the Biden administration’s response to the war in Gaza. Stein has the support of a Muslim American group called “Abandon Harris.”

Harris’s allies are claiming that even a few thousand votes for anti-war Stein — or possibly Kennedy, who has endorsed Trump but whose name remains on the ballot — could bring the country back to Trump. The Democratic National Committee has invested in messaging in Detroit and Saginaw reminding voters that in 2016, “Trump won the state of Michigan by 10,704 votes in 2016 — Jill Stein secured 51,463 votes.”

Nevada

Oliver is the least well-known aspirant among the third-party crop. He typically polls around 1 percent nationally, with little certainty and much debate about whether he pulls more votes from the Democratic or Republican nominee.

Libertarians tend to sit closer to Republicans, but many have expressed distaste for Trump and predictably also don’t approve of Harris, making Oliver a potentially game-changing candidate.

He’s the sole third-party candidate in the Silver State and could impact the relatively small population. Stein was not able to get on the ballot there, while Kennedy was successful in removing his name.

North Carolina

If there’s anywhere West, a leftist and former campaign surrogate for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), could make a blip, it’s the Tar Heel State. West sued the North Carolina State Board of Elections to get his name on the ballot and has created a small grassroots following of progressive and working class voters across racial and age demographics.

A North Carolina GOTV organizer told The Hill they haven't seen much third-party interest among voters, but West’s insistence on competing as the Justice for All candidate was celebrated by a fringe group who sees more choices as important for democracy.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State is the most monitored battleground, with Harris and Trump each spending big and barnstorming counties to notch the 19 electoral votes.

Democrats are happy about the vice president’s newest 2-point edge, according to a Monday poll from The Washington Post-Schar School, but they understand it’s a fluid race. To be sure, Trump led by 1 point in a different survey earlier this month by Emerson College.

Harris has spent $500 million on ads in the state, according to multiple reports, and has touched down 20 times, including alongside former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.). Trump made his own splash with an appearance at McDonald’s and has also invested heavily there.

The closeness means more focus on third-party candidates. Stein and Oliver are each hoping to appeal to displeased voters and together occupy between 1 percent and 3 percent of the vote in aggregate surveys, which experts see as enough to tilt the results.

Wisconsin

Stein, Kennedy, Oliver and West will all appear on the Wisconsin ballot, offering arguably the biggest wild card of the seven consequential battlegrounds.

The contenders won various court challenges against the Democratic National Committee to get on the Badger State ballot, with the Wisconsin Elections Commission certifying their bids as legitimate.

National Democrats are focused on Stein, flashing back again to Clinton’s 1 percent loss there in 2016. But Kennedy, who has infuriated them throughout the presidential contest, could still take votes away from either party even after commanding his supporters to back Trump.