How Mark Robinson can still win in North Carolina

Democrats have written off Republican Mark Robinson’s campaign to be the first Black governor of North Carolina. His Democratic opponent has a double-digit lead and, heaven knows, Robinson’s bombastic antics have given critics plenty of ammunition to use against him.

Still, a week can be an eternity in politics, and Robinson continues to poll at about 40 percent despite a disastrous month.

This means Robinson still has a chance to be elected, if only a Hail Mary attempt. He can ride to victory on the coattails of turnout for Donald Trump and a splinter of support from the Black faith community. The Black church features a segment of center-right leaning voters that will respond to proposals for doing good works — as the Apostle Paul wrote, “Let our people learn to devote themselves to good works, so as to help cases of urgent need.”

Does the Bible-thumping Robinson have the political maturity to make a silk purse from a sow’s ear?

His campaign is badly damaged from an onslaught of negative press reflecting his propensity for flippant, insensitive statements on gay rights, abortion, antisemitism, civil rights, Martin Luther King Jr. and slavery, among others. Added to this mess is CNN’s report, which Robinson disputes, about his comments on a pornographic website, plus other press allegations such as paying for an abortion, receiving food stamps, business failures and more.

Despite national press mockery, Robinson is a symbol of Black political achievement in Tar Heel State governance. Elected lieutenant governor in 2021, he is the first Black politician to hold that office, and only the second Black person ever elected statewide in North Carolina.

However, he has kept the predominantly Democratic Black community at arm’s length. Such an approach tends to be a prerequisite for Black politicians in the GOP establishment. Yet it is a self-defeating strategy if they are expected to reach folks.

After the fallout of the CNN report, Robinson lost campaign staff and advertising funding from the Republican Governors Association. Trump and other Republicans distanced themselves. But the churn may provide him with a new life to explore an independent political realignment in state politics.

Robinson still has a chance to eke out a win if he is open to a bipartisan agenda that seeks to bridge positive elements of the concerns of both MAGA supporters and the Black faith community. As an evangelist, he could take hints from the playbook of the Rev. William Barber, a longtime leader of the state NAACP, the Moral Mondays movement and the Poor People’s Campaign. Barber once suggested the idea of bipartisan cooperation on issues of good works as a way to find political common ground.

Robinson, acting in an independent fashion, would have a political stake in pursuing programs on child welfare, health care, education, stricter immigration enforcement in the construction trades for infrastructure projects and voting rights protections. He could counter the Republican state legislature’s penchant for electoral shenanigans to stifle the Black vote for partisan advantage.

Some Black faith voters may find appeal in Robinson’s working-class profile. Now a grandfather, he renders the life story of a blue-collar father struggling to care for his family at a time of competition from immigrants and outsourcing. He married his high school sweetheart and raised children on the salary of a furniture factory worker. He criticized the effects of Bill Clinton’s 1994 signing of NAFTA on his livelihood, writing, “My wife and I have endured a lot. I lost not one, but two jobs due to NAFTA. We lost homes, cars, and were even forced into bankruptcy.”

In fact, the Robinson campaign drew attention from Black Democratic voters, and in particular blue-collar men, willing to give him a chance. His support within the community — which comprises over 20 percent of the state — increased from about 3 percent in February to 14 percent in recent polls. The trend set off alarm bells within the state Democratic party, and Progress North Carolina Action produced a critical video featuring Martin Luther King III.

This is an odd election season where ethnic loyalty may play an unspoken role in ticket-splitting. Black North Carolina voters have historically relied on centrist white Democrats for representation at the state level. The current Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, is term-limited. Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic nominee, holds a double-digit lead and has noted with due pride that he could make history as the state’s first Jewish governor.

But this election comes as tensions in the Middle East have spilled over into domestic politics. For example, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee was involved in the primary loss of the pro-Palestinian Black Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.). And some Black voters may be influenced by the campaign of 1,000 Black pastors that called on the Biden-Harris administration to enforce a humanitarian cease-fire, hostage release and negotiations in the Gaza war.

Despite the press brouhaha over culture wars, the fact is little of it is relevant to the everyday duties of the governor. The office is largely a ceremonial one these days, as the North Carolina governor is among the weakest in the country — limited to two terms and lacking strong veto power, such as a line-item veto. This is a result of the Republican legislature stripping the office’s authority when held by Democrats. Still, the governor retains control over secondary agencies and plays a role in setting the state agenda.

North Carolina’s Black faith community is in a position to make political history, albeit one with a degree of risk, by helping to elect the first Black governor of a Deep South state. That the candidate is Republican Mark Robinson should give pause, but nonetheless is a rare chance to break a longstanding racial barrier.

Much of it depends on whether Robinson can use the remaining days to show political maturity and promote good works for the community and the state.

Roger House is professor emeritus of American Studies at Emerson College and the author of “Blue Smoke: The Recorded Journey of Big Bill Broonzy” and “South End Shout: Boston’s Forgotten Music Scene in the Jazz Age.” His forthcoming book is “Five Hundred Years of Black Self Governance: A Call to Conscience.”