Defense &
National Security
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Defense &
National Security
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How Harris, Trump could shape Middle East policy |
Escalating wars in the Middle East are not likely to calm before the November election, making the next U.S. president a key figure in efforts to broker peace and reset relations in the region. |
Former President Trump and Vice President Harris agree on some basic goals of U.S. policy in the region — defending Israel and isolating Iran — but often diverge on style and strategy. HARRIS -
She is likely to continue the Biden administration’s push for diplomacy to wind up Israel’s wars against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- She also shares her potential predecessor’s vision for a two-state solution that ensures ongoing security for all sides.
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Harris’s campaign has said she does not support an arms embargo on Israel to rein back its wars in the region, however the Biden-Harris administration has threatened to halt some arms shipments over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
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With a potential Harris administration, the pathway to normalization between Jerusalem and Riyadh is viewed as contingent on Palestinian self-determination, with a visible pathway to a state. And closer ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia are viewed as a bulwark against Iran – the main backer of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.
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The vice president has said diplomacy is her preferred path to keeping Iran from building a nuclear weapon, but she’s also said that all options are on the table, in reference to military strikes. Harris has added that she would “never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend American forces and interests from Iran and Iran-backed terrorists.”
TRUMP -
While Trump has previously displayed a personal grudge against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for recognizing President Biden’s election win in 2020, Trump regularly boasts about being the most pro-Israel president ever.
- Throughout the campaign, Trump has called for Israel to “finish the job,” signaling a desire to see wars in the Middle East end, while showing little interest in constraints on Netanyahu to mitigate civilian casualties, wide-spread destruction or hindrance of humanitarian aid.
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Trump, during his first term in office, took a hard line against Iran and its proxies and is likely to revive that policy if back in office — tightening oil sanctions that critics say have gone unenforced during the Biden administration.
Both candidates have a broader goal of establishing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as part of the Trump-era Abraham Accords, which established relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Read the full report at TheHill.com. |
Welcome to The Hill’s Defense & National Security newsletter, I'm Ellen Mitchell — your guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. |
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How policy will affect defense and national security now and in
the future: |
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The U.S. has assessed a “small number” of North Korean troops are present in Russia’s Kursk border region, with fears they could soon join the fight in Ukraine, the Pentagon’s top spokesperson said Tuesday. Press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Tuesday there are “indications that there’s already a small number” of North Koreans in the region, “with a couple thousand more that are either almost there, or due to … |
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North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to train in Russia with the expectation they’ll be sent to fight in Ukraine within “the next several weeks,” the Pentagon said Monday. “We believe that the [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)] has sent around 10,000 soldiers in total to train in eastern Russia that will probably augment Russian forces near Ukraine over the next several weeks,” deputy press secretary Sabrina … |
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Hezbollah has named Sheikh Naim Qassem as its next leader, though Israel, suggesting it will target him, has already threatened that his time in the role would be “temporary.” “Temporary appointment. Not for long,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant posted on X alongside a photo of Qassem. Qassem, 71, takes over from his predecessor Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut last month. … |
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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris have diverged sharply over how to handle Ukraine and NATO, with Harris pledging to continue strong support of Kyiv and engagement with allies, while Trump touts an isolationist approach. Here is a breakdown of how they have indicated they will tackle two key foreign policy decisions facing the next administration. Ukraine war Trump has pledged to end the war before he takes office … |
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Upcoming things we're watching on our beat: |
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies will discuss “Implementing the National Defense Industrial Strategy,” with Laura Taylor-Kale, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy, tomorrow at 1 p.m.
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The Atlantic Council will hold a conversation on “Geopolitics and the Next US President,” with House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-Ohio), at 2 p.m. tomorrow.
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Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will host his South Korean counterpart at the Pentagon tomorrow for the 56th US-ROK Security Consultative Meeting.
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Branch out with a different read from The Hill: |
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Perceptions of crime improve in Gallup survey |
Americans’ perceptions of local and nationwide crime have improved, according to a new Gallup poll, with fewer people saying crime in their area is higher. Forty-nine percent of Americans said the amount of crime within their “area” is higher than a year ago in the new poll, while 34 percent said … |
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Events in and around the defense world: |
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The Institute for Defense and Government will hold its 2024 Defense Logistics and Support Conference, at 8:50 a.m.
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The Stimson Center will host a virtual discussion on “Assessing Global Arms Trade Transparency,” at 9:30 a.m.
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The Center for a New American Security will have a conversation on “Quality of Life for Service Members and their Families,” with Ronald Keohane, assistant secretary of defense for manpower and reserve affairs, at 11 a.m.
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The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft will host a talk on “What is the Future, Axis of Resistance?” focusing on Hezbollah, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, Assad-led Syria, the Houthis, Hamas and Yemen, at 1 p.m.
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The Government Executive Media Group and UiPath will have a virtual discussion on “Enabling the Future of Army Modernization,” at 2 p.m.
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies will host an online talk on “The Global Terrorism Landscape,” with Brett Holmgren, acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center, at 3 p.m.TK
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News we've flagged from other outlets: |
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Chinese garlic and seafood at US military bases? Republicans think that stinks (Military.com)
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Pentagon runs low on air-defense missiles as demand surges (The Wall Street Journal)
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Two key stories on The Hill right now: |
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Vice President Harris is delivering a closing argument to voters in Washington D.C. while former President Trump is minimizing damage from comedian … Read more |
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The first votes of the 2024 presidential election are rolling in, raising questions about what can be gleaned from the data in forecasting the possible … Read more |
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You're all caught up. See you tomorrow! |
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