House, Senate standoff over Trump agenda escalates

The showdown between House and Senate Republicans is escalating as the two groups barrel ahead with their contrasting strategies to pass President Trump’s legislative agenda — with the upper chamber expected to move this week.

The House Budget Committee last week advanced a budget resolution for one sprawling bill full of Trump’s wish list items, getting the measure over the finish line after weeks of bitter infighting. The conference is eyeing a vote in the full chamber as early as next week, but concerns among moderates — and even some conservatives — could stymie that plan.

Senate Republicans, meanwhile, advanced their own budget resolution through the Budget Committee shortly before the House last week, moving the ball forward on its two-track blueprint. The measure is likely to hit the floor for a vote this week.

The two conferences have been at odds over strategy for months, racing each other to get a bill to the floor and seeing if either measure would get stuck in committee. But with both chambers past the first key hurdle, the path forward looks murky — and has the potential to grow contentious as the party remains under intense pressure to pass the president’s domestic policy priorities.

Neither conference appears ready to waver.

“What the budget resolution does is merely unlock the ability for us to go into committees to do budget reconciliation, to make transformational change, like the president talked about, and implement his full agenda,” House GOP conference Chair Lisa McClain (Mich.) said on “Sunday Morning Futures” this weekend. “And I'm confident that House Republicans will carry through on that agenda, not only for the president, but for the American people as well.”

Senate Republicans, however, are not holding their breath.

The upper chamber is set to bring its budget resolution to the floor this week, marking a major escalation in its push for the two-track strategy amid growing exasperation with the House’s progress. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has been a leading proponent of the push, which many Senate Republicans have clamored for dating back months.

The House, meanwhile, is out of session this week.

Thune has tried to get on the same page as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who sources readily acknowledge is in a difficult position.

But the Senate GOP believes the time to act is now and that they can ill afford to waste any more time, especially given the chance to put a win on the board during Trump’s first 100 days before turning the attention of Republicans to tax cuts.

“At the end of the day, our conference has extremely low confidence in the House’s ability to do anything. That is why we are moving,” one Senate GOP aide told The Hill. “I think if we leave the House to their own designs, we feel there is a very high likelihood we get no reconciliation bills passed.”

“We want to move things. We’ve shown we can move things on the Senate floor, and I think the Senate Republican Conference has shown really strong unity, even in the confirmation process,” the aide continued, pointing to their ability to confirm Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other “divisive” nominees. “Senate Republicans have shown they can come together to move an agenda. House Republicans — the confidence level is just not there that you can say the same thing.”

Adding to the calculus for the Senate GOP’s expeditious push is that top Trump officials, headlined by “border czar” Tom Homan, are pleading for an infusion of funding to help the administration carry out its ambitious plans to deport migrants who crossed into the U.S. illegally.

According to Senate Republicans, Homan’s message during their weekly luncheon last week was blunt: They need more money — and fast.

“As soon as possible,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) described the timeline.

Republicans are looking to utilize the budget reconciliation process to advance Trump’s agenda which, if successful, would allow the party to circumvent Democratic opposition in the Senate. The procedure, however, requires near unanimity in the GOP ranks, an effort that could particularly be difficult in the razor-thin House Republican majority.

Passing a budget resolution that sets parameters for a final bill unlocks that process.

The resolution put forward by Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) included $175 billion for border and immigration operations and a $150 billion infusion to defense spending. The first reconciliation bill would also deal with energy priorities, with the second set to tackle the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, though the conference has not yet mapped out how it would approach that part.

Republicans see their push not only as a positive for their two-track framework, but also as a way to force the House GOP to raise its game at what they believe is a critical juncture.

Of course, both chambers have to agree on the budget resolution in order to be able to take the next step, meaning that Johnson could let the Senate’s blueprint die on the vine. But the Senate GOP believes the House can only keep its current posture for so long before Trump intervenes.

“The only reason they moved a product through committee when they did was because Senate Republicans started moving,” the Senate GOP aide said. “The Senate moving on our own timeline is good, not only for moving a product forward, but to push the House to get its act in order.”

“House Republicans only have so much rope with the president if they’re just going to let a product sit there that’s ready to move,” the aide continued. “I don’t think he’s going to be very patient with them not being able to get things done and allowing a Senate-passed budget resolution to languish. … I don’t think the House’s, let’s just say, languish strategy is going to work.”

While the Senate’s move last week helped light a fire under House Republicans, helping them advance a resolution out of the Budget Committee, the conference is still far from being able to clear the measure out of the chamber, which is a necessity for jump-starting the reconciliation process.

House Republicans have argued they should move first in the process since their conference is more difficult to craft legislation for.

The House GOP’s budget resolution outlines a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees with a target of $2 trillion, a $4.5 trillion cap on the deficit impact of the Republicans’ plan to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, $300 billion in additional spending for the border and defense and a $4 trillion debt limit increase.

At least two House Republicans told The Hill last week that they are undecided on the measure — Reps. David Valadao (Calif.) and Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.) — enough opposition to tank the legislation. The conference can only afford to lose one vote if all members are present and the entire Democratic caucus votes “no,” which is expected.

The number of Republicans with cold feet, however, is likely higher behind the scenes. Valadao said “there’s at least double digits of people who are severely concerned,” a sign that Johnson has his work cut out for him to rally the conference around the measure.

The Speaker, however, appears to be sticking by his strategy, holding out hope that he can get it over the finish line so the House can take the lead on the reconciliation process.

Even as the Senate looks to steamroll the House, those in the upper chamber are clear-eyed about how difficult a job Johnson has in the lower chamber.

“Very tough,” the Senate GOP aide said, describing Johnson's position. “He’s got the hardest job in D.C. still.”

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