House incumbents locked in tight races in two New York swing districts: Poll
Two New York House incumbents are locked in tight races in their swing districts that could help decide which party controls the lower chamber next year, according to a new poll.
The survey from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill shows GOP Rep. Mike Lawler leading his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones, 45 percent to 44 percent for the seat representing New York’s 17th Congressional District.
Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan leads Republican Alison Esposito 48 percent to 43 percent for the seat representing the state’s 18th Congressional District.
In the 17th District, Lawler has a slight advantage over Jones in favorability rating, with 47 percent viewing him positively and 40 percent viewing him negatively. Jones is even at 40 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable.
Jones leads among younger voters, up 11 points among those younger than 40 and 4 points among those in their 40s, but he’s behind with voters older than 50 by 9 points. And candidate Anthony Frascone of the Working Families Party, a progressive third party, takes 6 percent of voters younger than 40 and 3 percent overall, according to the poll, potentially hurting Jones.
Seven percent of respondents in that race say they are undecided.
The race for the 18th District sees a large gender gap, with Ryan leading among women 54 percent to 34 percent and Esposito leading among men 52 percent to 40 percent. Both candidates are viewed decently favorably, but Ryan has an advantage in name recognition, with 23 percent not being familiar with Esposito.
The presidential race is similarly close in both districts, according to the poll. Vice President Harris and former President Trump are tied in the 17th District at 49 percent each, while Trump narrowly leads 48 percent to 47 percent in the 18th.
Although New York as a whole is likely to vote comfortably for Harris in November, a few key districts could be crucial to the House majority. Republicans picked up a few seats in the state in 2022, including Lawler’s, helping the GOP narrowly win control of the chamber.
If Democrats can flip those seats back, that could be all that’s needed to win back the majority. Republicans are hoping to hold on to those seats and add others, like Ryan’s, to pad their majority.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 1-3 among 630 likely voters in each district. The margin of error is 3.8 points.
Date: | |
Tag: | New York |
-
Top stories - CBS News
New York subway artist turns talent into TikTok stardom
With more than 33 million TikTok followers, artist Devon Rodriguez rose to fame by capturing candid moments of subway passengers. Lilia Luciano highlights his inspiring journey from the South Bronx ...9 hours ago - New York -
World - The New York Times
New York Marks the Oct. 7 Anniversary With Vigils and Pro-Palestinian Protests
New York is home to the largest Jewish community outside Israel, nearly 1 million in the city, and also has about 6,825 residents who identify as Palestinian,5 hours ago - New York -
Business - MarketWatch
Housing sentiment jumps to highest level in over two years, Fannie Mae says
A record number of consumers expect mortgage rates to fall over the next year. They’re also bracing for an increase in home prices.10 hours ago -
Politics - The Hill
White House, Fox News's Peter Doocy spar over Helene response
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Fox News reporter Peter Doocy sparred Monday over the Biden administration's response to the damage and destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene. ...2 hours ago -
Top stories - NBC News
What the 2024 polls show with four weeks to go
With four weeks to go until Election Day, the 2024 polls continue to show a presidential race that remains on a knife’s edge — and well within the margin of error.3 hours ago -
Politics - The Hill
Group slams Los Angeles district attorney for rising crime in county
A group supporting the opponent of Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón is making a six-figure ad buy blaming him for rising crime in the county. The organization, which bills itself ...8 hours ago -
Tech - GameSpot
Vandalized Silent Hill 2 Wikipedia Page Locked Down
The Silent Hill 2 remake has received a positive reception from critics overall, but it seems that the most contentious corners of the fanbase aren't thrilled with it. As spotted by Eurogamer , ...7 hours ago -
Science - The New York Times
When Two Sea Aliens Become One
Primitive animals called comb jellies can fuse their bodies and nervous systems together.7 hours ago
More from The Hill
-
Politics - The Hill
CBS brass reprimands anchor over Coates interview
CBS News leadership has reprimanded a top anchor after an interview conducted on the network's flagship morning program the executives said did not meet its editorial standards. In an editorial ...29 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
DeSantis 'not aware' of Harris calls after reports he dodged them
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Monday he “was not aware” of post-Hurricane Helene calls from Vice President Harris after multiple reports emerged that he dodged them. “I didn't know she called ...42 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
How a popular podcast waded into politics
Welcome to The Hill's Technology newsletter {beacon} Technology Technology The Big Story How a popular podcast waded into politics Alex Cooper’s ultra-popular podcast, “Call Her Daddy,” featured a ...47 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
Austin to meet with Israeli defense minister at Pentagon
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, at the Pentagon on Wednesday as the U.S. ally mulls how to respond to last week’s Iranian ...48 minutes ago - Israel -
Politics - The Hill
Justices decline Biden appeal in Texas abortion case
Click in for more news from The Hill {beacon} Health Care Health Care The Big Story Supreme Court won’t take up Texas emergency abortion case The court declined to take up an appeal of a ...1 hour ago - Joe Biden