Harris, Trump locked in virtual dead heat in major swing states: Poll
Vice President Harris and former President Trump are virtually deadlocked in the major swing states that will play a deciding role in the election, according to new polling from The Hill and Emerson College Polling.
Trump narrowly leads Harris, 49 percent to 48 percent, in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania; while in Arizona he leads 49 percent to 47 percent. Trump’s leads over Harris in these states are within the plus-or-minus three-point margin of error.
The two candidates are deadlocked at 49 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin, while in Nevada Harris leads Trump 48 percent to 47 percent. The poll’s margin of error in Michigan is plus or minus 3.1 points and plus or minus three points in Wisconsin. In Nevada, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 points.
The latest polling is emblematic of how tight the race has become less than one month out from Election Day, though it did show some slight shifts in support.
Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina since the last Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted three weeks ago, but gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump, on the other hand, gained a point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina but lost a point in Georgia and Nevada. Harris’s support remained unchanged in Michigan and Nevada while Trump’s remained unchanged in Arizona and Wisconsin.
“With the race still deadlocked and just under four weeks to go, it remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error,” said Spencer KImball, executive director at Emerson College Polling.
In terms of favorability, Harris and Trump share somewhat similar ratings. In Georgia, 52 percent of voters said they have a favorable view of Harris while 48 percent said the same about Trump. Fifty-one percent of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin said they had a favorable view of Harris, while 48 percent said the same about Trump in Michigan and 49 percent in Wisconsin.
Fifty percent of voters said they had a favorable view of Harris in North Carolina and Nevada, while 52 percent said the same about Trump in North Carolina and 45 percent in Nevada. Forty-eight percent of voters in Pennsylvania and Arizona said they viewed Harris favorably, while 50 percent said the same about Trump in Pennsylvania and 49 percent in Arizona.
Further down the ballot, in statewide races in the swing states, the polling showed Democrats enjoying leads over their GOP opponents. In North Carolina’s governor’s race which has been rocked by a number of scandals surrounding Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, Democrat Josh Stein leads Robinson 50 percent to 34 percent.
In Michigan’s Senate race, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) leads her GOP opponent Mike Rogers 49 percent to 44 percent, while in Arizona’s Senate race Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Kari Lake 50 to 43 percent. In Nevada’s Senate race, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads Republican challenger Sam Brown 50 percent to 42 percent.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted Oct. 5-8, 2024. The sample size in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin was 1,000 likely voters, while in Michigan it was 950 likely voters. In Nevada, 900 likely voters were sampled.
Date: | |
Tag: | Donald Trump |
Topics
-
Politics - The Hill
Harris, Trump locked in tight races in Rust Belt battlegrounds: Polling
Vice President Harris and her opponent, former President Trump, are locked in tight races in the Rust Belt battleground states with 26 days until Election Day, according to new polling released ...16 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Top stories - NBC News
Barack Obama kicks off swing-state blitz for Harris in Pittsburgh
Barack Obama kicks off swing-state blitz for Harris in Pittsburgh1 hour ago -
Politics - The Hill
Watch live: Trump courts voters in critical swing state of Pennsylvania
Former President Trump is rallying voters Wednesday in the battleground state of Pennsylvania as Election Day inches closer. His remarks from Reading, Pa., are expected to target his Democratic ...15 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - The Hill
Democrats, GOP locked in tight Senate races in Florida, Ohio and Texas: Poll
Democratic and Republican candidates are locked in tight races for Senate in Florida, Texas and Ohio, three states that have yielded increasingly close polls in recent weeks, according to a new ...8 hours ago -
Top stories - NBC News
Poll: Harris and Trump voters see their candidate representing 'change' — but in very different ways
The question of who represents change is critical to voters in this election. Exactly what "change" means can vary between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump supporters.3 hours ago - Donald Trump -
World - Financial Times
The data says the US economy is strong. Swing-state voters disagree
High costs are a threat to Kamala Harris’s hopes of winning Michigan, a crucial election battleground18 hours ago -
Politics - The Hill
Lara Trump dismisses change candidate polling, citing 'beverage napkins'
Republican National Committee co-Chair Lara Trump dismissed polling showing that more voters view Vice President Harris as the presidential candidate representing change, citing "beverage napkins" ...22 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Politics - The Hill
Trump edges Harris by 2 points in Pennsylvania survey
Former President Trump edged out his general election opponent, Vice President Harris, by 2 points in a new Pennsylvania survey. Trump had a 2-point advantage, 49 percent support to 47 percent, ...19 hours ago - Donald Trump -
Business - The New York Times
The Trump-Harris Election Is Creating Anxiety on Wall Street
Among deal makers with fortunes at stake, the consequences of a Harris or a Trump win are increasingly murky.17 hours ago - Donald Trump
More from The Hill
-
Politics - The Hill
Deadly Milton leaves millions without power
Hurricane Milton, which made landfall Wednesday evening on Florida’s west coast, barreled through the state as a Category 3 storm, with high winds and rain that left millions without power. ...23 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
Erase 'other': Accurate Census data matters for every American
We must act now to ensure that, by the next Census, everyone counts.45 minutes ago -
Politics - The Hill
North Korea wades into Ukraine
North Korea has entered the Ukraine war by providing artillery ammunition and military technology to Russia, and is now deploying soldiers to the Donetsk Oblast to assist in rebuilding ...1 hour ago - Ukraine -
Politics - The Hill
Don’t expect hurricane ‘truth telling from anybody’: Bill O’Reilly
"Republicans and Donald Trump are trying to use a storm for political advantage, but so is Kamala Harris,” O'Reilly said.1 hour ago -
Politics - The Hill
Post-Milton gas in Florida will be a challenge: GasBuddy founder
63% of gas stations in the Tampa area are out of gas, and it could be weeks before they're resupplied.1 hour ago - Florida