Getting Ukraine settlement right requires pressure on Putin

President Trump is right to seek an end to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. His success would make America stronger, safer and more prosperous.

But how he does so will be extremely important, especially in light of his phone call Wednesday with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and comments made by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth the same day.

Nobody wants the war to end more than Ukrainians do. After all, they are the ones suffering every day from Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked and barbaric campaign to destroy their country. But any end to the fighting must ensure that it wouldn’t give Russia’s Putin an opportunity to reconstitute his forces and attack another day.

Any cease-fire must lead to a lasting and just settlement that would free Ukraine from the deadly Russian sword of Damocles hanging over it. It should restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity and include the possibility of Ukraine joining the Euro-Atlantic community.

Putin must not be able to exercise a de facto veto over Ukraine’s aspirations, including eventual membership in NATO, notwithstanding Hegseth’s comments Wednesday in Munich in which he ruled out that possibility.

The way to get Putin to the negotiating table is through increasing U.S. and allied military assistance to Ukraine, tightening sanctions against Russia, seizing frozen Russian assets kept in Western financial institutions and readying a European deterrent force. None of those steps should be taken off the table even as the American and Russian leaders prepare to meet. Those measures provide leverage over Putin and reassure the Ukrainians that they won’t be sold down the river.

We have heard that President Trump’s team has unofficially laid out two of these key steps to prevent any renewed Russian aggression: deployment of a European deterrent force and substantial arms for Ukraine. Hegseth emphasized the importance of the Europeans taking the lead on any deployment.

Baltic, British, French and other European leaders have raised the possibility of sending such a force to Ukraine to implement a cease-fire. This force should be very capable and ready to engage should Russia violate the terms of the agreement. This would reassure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people — and also signal to Putin the West’s seriousness in standing with Ukraine.

European leaders are leery to do this without clear American backing, however. At a minimum, this means U.S. logistical and intelligence support. It probably also means the use of American air power to cover the deployment and to assist our European allies if Russian forces strike at them in a renewal of aggression.

The presence of European troops backed by the U.S. would reduce the odds that Putin would violate the terms of the agreement. We urge the Trump administration to remain open to this idea.

Putin would be even less likely to break a settlement deal — and avoid a direct confrontation with the West — if the U.S. and its allies at the same time doubled down on military supplies to Ukraine. President Trump has expressed an interest in sending weapons to Ukraine in exchange for the country’s abundant rare earth and other critical minerals. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's trip to Kyiv this week was an indicator of Trump’s strong interest.

A renewed American commitment to arming Ukraine would also be a powerful incentive for Putin to turn to negotiations immediately. He needs a reason to come to the table because he thinks he can outlast Western support for Ukraine and is still making modest gains on parts of the battlefield. Trump sent a helpful public message on Wednesday that did not receive much public attention.

An American push to end the fighting must, of course, include the Ukrainians in any discussions — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.

After all, Zelensky has shown a real willingness to negotiate an end to the war. Putin has not.

The Russian leader’s goal remains the same: to destroy Ukraine as an independent nation, and — if successful there — attempt to do the same thing to other countries along his country’s borders.

Putin’s demands, reaffirmed by his deputy foreign minister this week, are nonstarters: a change in government in Kyiv, Ukrainian recognition of Russian occupation of 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and permanent neutrality for Ukraine. That last means no NATO membership, because NATO’s Article 5 security guarantees are ultimately the best way to avoid a repeat of Russia’s campaign.

Putin knows these terms are unacceptable. They demonstrate he’s not serious about holding talks that would lead to an outcome acceptable to the Ukrainians.

So he must be convinced that his idea of victory is impossible and that continuing the war will end badly for him. Ukrainian forces are continuing to inflict real damage on Russian occupying forces.

Tightening sanctions on Russia, especially in energy, would cut off major sources of funding for Russia’s war effort. Similarly, seizing the $300 billion in Russian assets currently frozen in Western banks would alleviate the need for the West to pay for the damage Russia has done and cover both Ukrainian war efforts and the reconstruction of the war-damaged country.

Pressure, therefore, must be applied on the Russian side, not to the Ukrainians.

Pressing Zelensky to hold elections is an idea that parrots the Kremlin's talking points. It also violates Ukrainian law, which rules out elections while the country is under martial law.

Martial law was imposed when Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. The only way to get it lifted is to pressure Putin to end the war. Only then would Ukraine be in a position to hold elections, including enabling the nearly 8 million Ukrainians displaced by the war to vote. The political opposition in Ukraine agrees that holding elections without an end to the fighting would be premature and against Ukrainian law.

The world is watching how the Trump administration handles efforts to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As the Chinese Communist Party eyes Taiwan, it’s following closely whether we will continue to stand by Ukraine. The Iranians and North Koreans, both of whom have provided vital military support for Russia’s assault on Ukraine, will draw conclusions based on whether the United States stands by Ukraine.

Defeating Russia will make China, its partner, weaker and America stronger. Access to Ukrainian critical minerals and rare earths will make America more prosperous. And stopping Russia’s threat to American allies and American soldiers will make America safer.

Abandoning Ukraine, which Trump has said he won’t do, would be the equivalent of his predecessor’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Ukraine is the innocent victim of Russia’s unprovoked aggression and war crimes. The Trump administration should be commended for seeking a lasting and just end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — one that ends the horrific loss of life and economic devastation in ways that preclude Russia’s ability to do this again.

Achieving this would stabilize Europe and enable the United States to focus elsewhere. It would be an extraordinary achievement for the Trump administration, one worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize.

David J. Kramer is executive director of the George W. Bush Institute. He served as assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights, and labor in the George W. Bush administration. John Herbst is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. William Taylor is a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

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