Generational change meets its limits with Connolly's win over AOC

Rep. Gerry Connolly’s triumph over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the top Democratic spot on the Oversight Committee illustrates the limits of the party’s demand for generational change, with a well-established centrist beating out a progressive standard-bearer.

While the victory went beyond ideology, there were simmering fears among centrists about how elevating Ocasio-Cortez, an outspoken liberal who has gone viral for her moments on the panel before, would turn out. There was also a sense that it was Connolly’s turn, after he had previously run for the Oversight spot twice and served on the panel for 15 years, according to interviews with eight Democratic lawmakers.

Connolly also used his strong relationships in the centrist New Democrat Coalition, considered the largest ideological bloc in the caucus, to build significant support, after Ocasio-Cortez surged early on. Incoming New Democrat Coalition Chair Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) made calls on behalf of Connolly after the group’s endorsement Friday, said a person granted anonymity to discuss the private outreach.

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi also phoned other lawmakers on his behalf — a factor other lawmakers said was significant, but not nearly as decisive as Connolly’s own relationships throughout the caucus.

“The membership comes together and makes these decisions. Members make individual decisions,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). “I’ve seen leadership weigh in on races in the caucus and win some and lose some.”

Connolly’s internal whip count of roughly 130 lawmakers that POLITICO reported Friday almost exactly mirrored the final whip count of 131 votes for him on Tuesday morning.

Ocasio-Cortez’s allies had projected early confidence in the race and had hoped to capitalize on a post-election appetite for change in the caucus. But while other ranking members largely fell to or stepped aside for younger challengers, members still largely felt it wasn’t right to bypass 74-year-old Connolly for the 35-year-old progressive darling. And despite the calls for a shift in leadership and some concerns about Connolly’s recent cancer diagnosis, House Democrats aren’t totally willing to abandon their attachment to seniority.

“I think that there are challenges in totally abandoning the seniority system here, because if seniority is not the rule, money becomes the rule,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), who’d been the first Democrat to call for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid earlier this year.

Lawmakers cemented their decisions to cast aside other senior committee leaders even as they elevated Connolly on Tuesday morning, electing Reps. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) and Angie Craig (D-Minn.) as ranking members to succeed lawmakers who’d faced questions about their health and attendance in Congress.

Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, a former top Democratic leader, spoke up in caucus in support of deferring to seniority. He said he did so on behalf of Pelosi, who was absent from Tuesday’s meetings while she recovered from hip replacement surgery after a fall. In addition to Connolly, Pelosi had also backed Huffman and Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), who failed in his bid to take the ranking position on the Agriculture Committee, as part of a push by the California delegation to back their own.

“The fact that you're senior does not necessarily mean you have the ability,” Hoyer said after the elections. “But if you have the ability, then seniority certainly reflects service, experience, knowledge of the committee, and I think that's perhaps what made the difference in the Connolly race.”

Leading up to the vote, Ocasio-Cortez had sought to neutralize concerns from centrists in the party. She indicated to members of the Steering and Policy Committee on Monday, who ultimately recommended Connolly for the spot, that she could stop backing primary challengers to sitting lawmakers.

“I think a lot of members know Ocasio-Cortez would be best, but I think there’s some heartburn with New Dems and [moderates] she would put them in a tough spot by going hard on cultural issues,” said one neutral Democratic leadership aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Ocasio-Cortez’s loss left her allies fuming. Hill progressives had cited the New Yorker’s power to mobilize millions on social media and her skills as a communicator as a huge benefit for a job that will largely involve messaging against the right.

“There is one person in our caucus that has the ear of millions and millions of people with just the touch of her finger, and that is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” said Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.).

And some members warned not to expect that Tuesday’s elections will be the end of intergenerational contests in the party.

“Those of us who have come up more recently within the Congress understand that the American people have had it with seniority issues,” Balint added. “Nobody in our districts cares about relationships in the building.”

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