Gabbard's path through Intelligence Committee narrows ahead of key hearing

Republicans are cautioning that Tulsi Gabbard’s path to confirmation to lead the U.S. Intelligence apparatus is narrowing as she seemingly has trouble winning over key GOP senators.

Gabbard, along with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Kash Patel, are set for their high-stakes confirmation hearings this week as senators face some of President Trump’s most controversial nominees.

But it’s Gabbard who appears to have the most tenuous path to confirmation as she struggles to assuage Republicans on the Senate Intelligence Committee, which will determine her fate, ahead of Thursday's hearing.

“I think it remains to be seen,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an Intelligence member, when asked if Gabbard can win support of the committee. “I think the jury’s still out.”

A second Senate Republican agreed, telling The Hill that Gabbard “has a path [that] continues to narrow.”

Gabbard can’t afford to lose a single vote on the Intelligence Committee, which has a 9-8 party split and features two GOP members who are considered swing votes: Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), who last week voted against another Trump nominee on the floor, and Todd Young (Ind.).

Collins told The Hill in an interview that she wants to press Gabbard on her stance on Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allows for the warrantless surveillance of foreign targets.

Gabbard has sought to walk back her past criticism of the program, but Collins told The Hill she doesn’t necessarily believe Gabbard’s change of heart.

“There are several questions I want to follow up on in the hearing,” Collins said, adding that she didn’t want to preview them all “because I want to hear her unpracticed responses” even though she expects Gabbard will be well prepared.

“But there are a lot of obvious issues,” Collins said. “Her answers to the written questions were very hedged on it. I know there’s been a lot of reporting that she’s changed her position. That’s not how I read her answers. I read them as, ‘I’ll take a look at the reforms and see if they meet my concerns.’”

Gabbard, as a Democratic member of the House, proposed legislation in 2020 to repeal Section 702 and has voted against reauthorizing the program.

But she recently told Punchbowl News that the 702 program is "crucial" and “must be safeguarded to protect our nation while ensuring the civil liberties of Americans" in an attempted turnabout.

“If confirmed as [intelligence director], I will uphold Americans’ Fourth Amendment rights while maintaining vital national security tools like Section 702 to ensure the safety and freedom of the American people,” Gabbard said.

Her latest statement leaves unclear whether she would back a warrant requirement to review information swept up on Americans — a key issue for privacy-minded lawmakers but one 702 backers feel would gut the program.

Collins also brought up concerns about Gabbard’s views on Syria and her 2017 meeting with ex-President Bashar Assad.

She said will not make a decision on the nomination until after the hearing. Collins voted against Trump’s nominee to lead the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, twice last week.

As for Young, two Senate GOP aides described the ex-Marine as being a “problem” for Gabbard.

“Those members are going to have a really hard time getting to ‘yes,’” one of the GOP aides said.

The panel-based problems come after reports emerged that Gabbard was struggling in meetings with Senate Republicans in an attempt to win them over.

Complicating the situation for Gabbard is that her problems are different from those that plagued Hegseth, one of Trump’s more controversial nominees.

Hegseth’s issues were largely centered on personal matters, including allegations of sexual improprieties and drunkenness.

Gabbard’s are almost all policy-focused, which have been harder for some members to overcome.

She also doesn’t have the communications chops of Hegseth, or the backup from conservative media, which rushed to his side when his nomination was flatlining in early December.

“[He] has conservative credentials and Fox friends to rely on to buoy support,” the Senate GOP aide said. “She’s a Democrat. … She is not one of us, still. There’s not like this built up goodwill of like, ‘Oh, we’ve got to dig her out of a hole.’”

Even if she were to get through the committee, there are other members signaling they will oppose her. The Senate GOP aide noted that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is making it clear to members of the GOP conference that he is “adamantly” opposed to her.

McConnell’s office said it did not have any information to share about his planned nominee votes.

Alexa Henning, a Gabbard spokesperson, noted there are not any public “no” votes and pointed to positive meetings she’s had on both sides of the aisle ahead of her hearing.

“There is not one GOP Senator on record opposing Lt. Col. Gabbard's nomination. In fact, there are many on record including bipartisan members of the Senate Intel Committee who have shown positive support for her nomination and qualifications,” Henning said in a statement.

“She's met with almost every GOP Senator in the U.S. Senate and Democrats who've accepted her invitation to meet. She is continuing the advice and consent process in the Senate and looks forward to her hearing.”

While Gabbard faces problems, senators believe both Kennedy and Patel have solid paths toward confirmation.

Kennedy faced initial questions given his past comments about vaccines, specifically the polio vaccine. However, his push to tamp down concern on that front has seemingly worked, with Republicans expected to back him — barring a catastrophic performance before either the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday or the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee a day later.

“People are getting pretty comfortable with him, actually. … What they do is meet him and then they like him,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said.

“We all have daughters and wives and granddaughters who just think he’s Elvis,” he continued with a laugh. “All these grainy women love him so much that he’s looking out for the kids [and] getting rid of that red dye crap.”

Cramer added Kennedy is “not that unreasonable,” arguing he doesn’t want to mandate or prohibit vaccines and that he has myriad supporters for his “Make America Healthy Again” agenda.

Trump’s team remains cautiously optimistic but notes HELP Committee Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) remains a wild card given his vote to convict Trump in 2021.

“I think RFK kind of gets through it,” a source close to the Trump team said. “He can’t drop the balls at these hearings and say something weird and provocative. You don’t want to back them into a corner.”

Meanwhile, Patel has perhaps garnered the most intense scorn from the Democratic side outside of Hegseth, with the party pushing for Republicans to reject his nomination to lead the FBI.

That appears increasingly unlikely, though, as Patel has made no fatal errors since his nomination, with Judiciary Committee members expecting him to face few real troubles en route to confirmation on the Senate floor.

But Republicans are quick to note: One major screwup before any of the committees could harm any of them irreparably.

“Those, obviously, are ones where there are more questions … than there certainly are on some of these other nominees,” Cornyn said about Gabbard and Kennedy. “I’m anxious to have the hearings.”

Alex Gangitano and Rebecca Beitsch contributed.

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