Four open seats complicating Democrats' path to the majority

The Democratic effort to flip control of the House in next week’s elections has been complicated by key retirements that have expanded the battleground for Republicans in the final stretch of the campaign.

Open seats in Michigan, Virginia and California — vacated by popular incumbent Democrats who are leaving the House at the end of this term — have denied the party name-brand candidates with established track records on Capitol Hill.

The dynamics have forced Democrats to dedicate more resources to those districts, while creating new pickup opportunities for Republicans who are vying to expand their slim House majority in the next Congress.

“Those incumbents retiring were a huge advantage for us,” said a House GOP campaign strategist. “It's really just changed the entire battlefield within these districts.”

Redistricting at the state level has created five open seats that are expected to flip parties next week: Three Democratic seats in North Carolina that are predicted to turn red, and two Republican seats — one in Louisiana, the other in Alabama — forecast to turn blue.

That math would net the GOP one seat in the next Congress, but Republicans also have the advantage in the open-seat battleground races: While Democrats are defending four highly competitive vacancies, Republicans are defending none — an environment even Democrats acknowledge is a challenge.

“You have to build a new name brand. And that automatically is a little more challenging,” a Democratic strategist familiar with House races said. “But each of them are winnable."

Here are the four districts that have become much more competitive with the exit of the Democratic incumbent.

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District

Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), a former CIA officer, built a reputation for bipartisan bridge-building during her six years in Congress. Her exit, to run for the governor’s office in 2025, leaves an open seat in a sprawling district in north-central Virginia that spans the far suburbs of Richmond and Charlottesville, as well as Washington.

The Democratic candidate is Eugene Vindman (D), a former Army colonel whose twin brother played a central role in the first impeachment of then-President Trump in 2019. Republicans think the Vindman name alone — because of its association with that partisan impeachment — will alienate moderate voters to the benefit of the GOP candidate, Derrick Anderson, a former Army Green Beret.

Analysts at the Cook Political Report rank the race a “toss-up.”

“There couldn't be a bigger contrast between Spanberger and Vindman,” the GOP strategist said. “Immediately, when Vindman is introduced, all people think of is the Trump impeachment. He's a fierce partisan.”

Still, Republicans have a tough climb to flip a district that went for President Biden by almost 7 points in 2020. And Vindman’s large cash advantage — he’s outraised Anderson $14 million to $2.6 million through September — has boosted the Democrats’ confidence that they’ll keep the seat.

Michigan’s 8th Congressional District

Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-Mich.) coming retirement after six terms means the next Congress will mark the first time since 1977 that a member of the Kildee clan won’t represent the region around Flint, Mich.

Republicans see that as a unique opportunity for their candidate, Paul Junge, a former prosecutor and TV anchor, to flip a seat in a battleground district that Biden won by just 2 points in 2020.

Kristen McDonald Rivet, a state senator and former education advocate, is the Democrat fighting to keep the seat blue. A mother of six, she’s been focused on family-friendly economic issues and support for women’s reproductive rights.

This marks the third consecutive cycle that Jung has vied for Congress, having lost to Kildee in 2022 and to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) in 2020 before state redistricting. Democrats acknowledge Junge’s past runs have raised his public profile. But they say that history also informs the Democratic strategy for beating him.

“We have Republicans who have lost before in those same places and we know the playbook [for defeating them]. The lines of attack are clear and they’re effective," the Democratic strategist said. "So it is making sure you have the resources and investments to introduce the Dem to the district, but then also leaning in on hammering home on the ways we beat them before.”

Michigan’s 7th Congressional District

Slotkin announced in February she would run for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), leaving Michigan’s purple 7th Congressional District open — and sparking hope among Republicans.

The GOP strategist said Slotkin “had the bipartisan bona fides and the fundraising ability to really lock it up,” a sentiment that shines through Slotkin’s electoral history. The Michigan Democrat outran President Biden in 2020, winning her seat by 3.6 percentage points compared to Biden’s 0.5 percentage point victory in the district. In 2022, Slotkin won by 5.4 percentage points.

With Slotkin out of the race, the GOP has its eyes set on putting the seat in its column.

Republicans are running Tom Barrett against Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. — both of whom are former state senators — in a race that is shaping up to be a competitive battle. Cook Political Report rates the seat a “toss-up.”

An Emerson College/The Hill poll released Tuesday found Barrett with a 2-point lead over Hertel — 47 percent to 45 percent — with a 4.2-point margin of error. Decision Desk HQ gives Barrett a 64 percent chance of winning.

Slotkin departing the seat creates a particular opportunity for Barrett: He ran against Slotkin in 2022, losing to the incumbent by roughly 20,000 votes. Even Democrats say the second-attempt nature of Barrett’s bid could be an advantage for him.

The district has a checkered political history. It has been represented by three Republicans and two Democrats in the past 25 years, and it broke for Biden in 2020 after voting for former President Trump in 2016. Additionally, the area voted for former Presidents Obama and George W. Bush in their respective elections.

California’s 47th Congressional District

Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) mounted a failed bid for Senate earlier this year, losing in the Democratic primary to fellow Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.).

Now, a high-stakes — and expensive — election is underway to fill the seat vacated by Porter.

Republican Scott Baugh — who served in the California assembly and chaired the Orange County GOP — is up against Democrat state Sen. Dave Min in a race that Cook Political Report rates a “lean Democrat.”

Baugh ran an unsuccessful campaign against Porter in 2022, losing the race by 3.4 percentage points. The fact that it is Baugh’s second attempt at the seat is fueling hope among Democrats that they can defeat him once again by implementing the same strategy Porter utilized last cycle.

“The nice thing about this is [the Republican] has run before, and Dems have a pretty good playbook for how to beat Scott Baugh,” the Democratic strategist said.

“He is unapologetically conservative. So he falls into that category of: He’s not really running to the middle — he presents as too extreme for the district. That helps Dave [Min].”

Republicans, meanwhile, are bullish about their chances now that Porter is out of the race. The GOP strategist pointed to the outgoing lawmaker’s money game in 2022: That cycle, Porter outraised Baugh in outside funds by more than eightfold.

“Katie Porter outspent Scott Baugh last cycle just on TV, $26 million to $3 million. And that's an L.A. media market, where $3 million gets you two ads. ... It gets you nothing,” the strategist said. “So just her fundraising advantage was a huge — [her leaving] was a huge advantage for us.”

The district has been reliably blue, breaking for Biden by just more than 11 points in 2020, in addition to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Obama in 2008 and 2012. The seat has been held by a Democrat since 2003.