Five considerations after Iran’s attack on Israel
On April 1, a presumed Israeli airstrike at the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria killed six people, including Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
On April 13, Iran responded with more than 300 ballistic missiles, land attack cruise missiles and drones launched against Israeli territory. Virtually all the missiles and drones were intercepted by Israel and allied missile defense systems. The few that did get through did no real damage. As of this writing, there is only one Israeli casualty — a young girl hit in her home by shrapnel from a shot-down missile.
The Iranian attack makes it critical that the House pass the aid bill for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel which overwhelmingly passed the Senate — and not just a stand-alone appropriation for Israel.
The strategic implications of the Iranian attack must still be absorbed. Here are five early considerations:
1. The coordination of missile defense between Israel, the U.S., the U.K. and regional Arab allies was unprecedented. Jordan shot down multiple drones, the Saudis allowed aircraft overflights and Egypt played an intelligence role. This continued emergence of a Sunni anti-Iran coalition along with Israel and the West must be appropriately nurtured.
2. Israeli retaliation for the Iranian retaliation must be coordinated with the U.S. and Israel’s regional allies. It is not in Israel’s strategic interest to overly escalate. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, is not known for strategic thinking, and he has a political incentive to escalate the conflict. Recent opinion polls in Israel demonstrate that 71 percent do not want Netanyahu as prime minister and over 60 percent of Israelis believes he puts his personal interests ahead of the country’s interests.
The precedent for no Israeli action is 1991, when President Bush prevailed upon Yitzhak Shamir not to retaliate for Saddam Hussein launching 42 Scud missiles on Israel during the first Gulf War.
Israel is currently at war with Hamas in Gaza and in escalating clashes with Hezbollah in the north; there are clashes in the West Bank between Palestinians and Israeli settlers, and between the Israeli army and Palestinians. The world is also dealing with Houthi attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. Adding a new front is neither desirable nor tenable.
3. Iran knew that most of the missiles would not get through. Over the next few days, the U.S. and allied militaries will determine how many Iranian missiles actually targeted civilian locations, how many targeted military installations and how many were sent for show.
The Iranian declaration about its attack is remarkable: “Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded.” And it should be. There will be other actions and provocations by Iran in the future, which must be met in conjunction with a coordinated regional effort.
4. Most Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, were reasonably quiet during the multi-hour Iranian missile salvo — another sign that the Iranians were not seeking to over escalate.
Hezbollah possesses well over 150,000 missiles that can hit any target in Israel as well as massive stockpiles of lesser-range munitions. Hezbollah could fire 400 missiles against major Israeli cities and infrastructure every day for a year without resupply — a third more than the number of missiles fired by Iran on April 13. Hezbollah would fire from tens of miles away rather than thousands of miles away, so the allied missile defense systems would not be as effective.
The combined cost of shooting down all the Iranian projectiles on April 13 will likely be in excess of $500 million and depleted stockpiles.
5. The shooting down of 99 percent of Iranian missiles and drones will create a learning curve for Iran (and the West).
Israel used unmanned aerial vehicles extraordinarily effectively in battles with Syria during the early days of 1982 Lebanon War. Syria, which controlled parts of Lebanon, had generous supplies of new versions of Soviet surface-to-air (SAM) missiles, which had been used effectively against the Israeli Air Force. Israel used UAVs to draw out surface-to-air missile attacks and to identify Syrian electronic frequencies. When the aerial war began, the UAVs were able to emit false signals. Syrian SAMs were often launched futilely against Israeli UAVs, and Israel destroyed 29 of 30 Syrian SAM batteries. Israel was then free to attack Syrian aircraft and land targets with relative impunity.
No doubt, the U.S., Israel and Iran will all learn from the 300 projectiles that were downed in this attack, making the next wave of attacks more lethal.
Iran is a danger that needs to be confronted — but on Israel’s own time and schedule. Ill-considered retaliation by Israel for political purposes will not solidify the anti-Iran coalition.
Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington D.C. and the Middle East. From 1991 to 2005, he was an adjunct professor of International Law at Georgetown University Law Center.
Date: | |
Tag: | Israel |
Topics
Filter
-
Iran's Attack on Israel Has Deepened Concerns About Its Nuclear Program
The exchange of direct fire between the two foes opens an era of more dangerous competition.The Wall Street Journal - World - Israel -
Disaster videos from Lebanon, Chile, Japan falsely shared as Iran attack
Yahoo News - World - Iran -
Five for Fighting: A Lone Voice Sings for Israel
John Ondrasik won’t let his industry forget those slaughtered at the Nova music festival on Oct. 7.The Wall Street Journal - World - Israel -
Egypt's PM: Israel's attacks on Gaza are 'collective punishment'
Yahoo News - World - Israel -
Iran's Raisi says Israel must be brought to justice for 'usurpation' of Palestinian territories
Yahoo News - World - Israel -
Have Iran-Israel missile strikes changed the Middle East?
Political and military leaders are still absorbing the extraordinary exchange of fire, writes James Landale.BBC News - Top stories - Israel -
British man injured in Tobago shark attack
Peter Smith, 64, was 10 metres off the shore when he was attacked by a bull shark, a local official says.BBC News - Top stories -
Israel's strike showed Iran's air defenses were 'woefully unprepared.' Here's what Tehran may do next.
Yahoo News - World - Israel -
Three men arrested after five people die in Channel boat crossing
Suspects being questioned by National Crime Agency in Kent on suspicion of immigration offences. Three men have been arrested in connection with a Channel boat crossing that led to the deaths of five people, including a young girl.. The three have ...The Guardian - World -
SK Hynix Returns to Profit, Expects Market Recovery on AI Boom
The world’s second-largest memory-chip maker expects a recovery in the memory-chip market this year as it swung to a net profit after five straight quarters of losses.The Wall Street Journal - Tech
More from The Hill
-
Riot police drag away protesters at University of Texas as Gaza tensions flare
State troopers in riot gear moved on Monday afternoon to clear out students attempting to occupy a quad at the University of Texas at Austin. Dozens of protesters were arrested on site, escalating tensions that began on Wednesday when the ...The Hill - Politics -
Jill Stein accuses police of assaulting her at protest
Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein on Sunday alleged police assaulted her and other demonstrators shortly before being arrested at a pro-Palestinian protest on the campus of Washington University in St. Louis. “Basically, the police ...The Hill - Politics -
US finds Israeli military units violated human rights
Welcome to The Hill's Defense & NatSec newsletter {beacon} Defense &National Security Defense &National Security The Big Story US finds Israeli military units violated human rights The State Department has determined that at least five Israeli ...The Hill - Politics - Israel -
Evening Report — Protests continue to spread on college campuses
A quick recap of the day and what to look forward to tomorrow {beacon} Evening Report © AP Pro-Palestinian protests escalate on college campuses Hundreds of students have been arrested on college campuses across the country as ...The Hill - Politics -
FCC fines wireless carriers
Presented by Microsoft — {beacon} Technology Technology PRESENTED BY The Big Story FCC fines major mobile carriers $200M The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) issued a fine totaling $200 million to the nation’s four largest mobile ...The Hill - Politics