Evening Report — Trump rolls through the battlegrounds

Evening Report

Trump set for swing state rout with broad coalition

Former President Trump is poised to sweep the battlegrounds states against Vice President Harris on the back of a political realignment, with Trump harnessing the support of a multi-cultural working class coalition that once elected former President Obama.

As good of a night as it was for Trump and Republicans, it was an equally bad night for Democrats, pollsters and traditional news media, that at times appear to operate in an antiquated political era.

A look at the numbers as the final election results trickle in:

Trump has won six of the seven battlegrounds, with only Arizona waiting to be called. Trump currently leads in Arizona and if he goes seven for seven, it would give him a 312 to 226 Electoral College victory.
Trump is on pace to be the first GOP presidential candidate since 2004 to win the popular vote. He currently leads by about 5 million votes.
Traditionally blue states moved to the right. President Biden won New York by 23 points in 2016, and Harris will win it by about 12 points. Biden won resounding double-digit victories in Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico and Virginia, which Harris will only carry by between 4 and 8 points.

Almost every demographic group shifted to the right, while Trump ran up the score with white rural voters.

Trump made astonishing gains with racial minorities, underscored by his support among Latinos, which only 8 years ago represented a key component of the Democratic constituency.

Starr County in Texas on the Southern border has gone for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since the 1890s — until now. Trump won it easily in 2024, after Hillary Clinton carried it by 60 points in 2016. That’s about a 75-point swing to the right in eight years.
Trump carried Hazelton, Pa., which is nearly two-thirds Hispanic, by 25 points. Clinton carried it by 5 points in 2016.
Exit polls in Pennsylvania find Trump increasing his Black support to nearly 25 percent.
Trump won Arab and Muslim districts in Michigan. Arab Americans have traditionally voted for Democrats by a 2-1 margin.

Trump soaked it up during his victory speech early Wednesday morning.

“We've built the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition... Young and old, men and women, rural and urban…they came from all quarters. Union, non-union, African-American, Hispanic-American, Asian-American, Arab-American, Muslim-American. We had everybody, and it was beautiful. It was a historic realignment.”

Harris called Trump to concede on Wednesday. She'll address her supporters from Howard University this afternoon. Watch live here

Democratic finger-pointing is underway, with the party facing big questions going forward:

Biden will be scrutinized for not stepping aside earlier to allow for a competitive primary.
Harris’s campaign decisions will be under the microscope, including her efforts to win over moderate Republicans by campaigning with Liz Cheney; the focus on “fascism” and democracy; Harris’s conservative media strategy; and Harris's pick of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as her running mate.
The Democrats’ broader leftward turn and embrace of identity and social justice politics will be a matter of debate.

The polling industry will have to account for undercounting Trump’s support for a third consecutive election.

The polls all pointed to a toss-up race, failing to capture the dynamics of a contest that ended with a rightward shift in almost every county in the country.

There was an intense polling focus on red states where Trump was allegedly in trouble, and no focus on the blue states where Harris badly underperformed.

The Des Moines Register survey finding Harris with a 3 point lead in Iowa in the final days upended the narrative of the campaign. Trump won the Hawkeye State by more than 13 points.
Polls showed a tighter-than-expected race in Texas, which Trump carried by about 14 points. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) triumphed by nearly 9 points, despite polls showing the race effectively tied.
GOP-leaning pollsters were repeatedly accused of “flooding the zone” with bad faith surveys allegedly meant to tilt the averages in Trump’s favor. Those polls ended up being the most accurate of the cycle.

The candidates largely kept traditional news media on the sidelines, with Trump in particular leaning on burgeoning alternative outlets to get his message out.

Mainstream coverage of the race fixated on narratives that turned out to be wrong or inconsequential.

A comedian’s racist joke at a Trump rally dominated headlines in the final days and was allegedly poised to deliver Puerto Rican voters to Harris. Instead, Trump appears to have outperformed among Puerto Ricans and Latinos more broadly. Trump narrowly won Florida’s Osceola County, which has a sizable Puerto Rican population. Biden won there by 14 points in 2020.
Trump increased his margins in Clark County, Ohio, the home of Springfield, despite intense speculation about a backlash due to his remarks about Haitian immigrants.
Harris’s allegedly superior ground game was reported to be the likely difference in the race.

💡Perspectives:

The Washington Post: Where did the Harris campaign go wrong?

The Hill: American Lazarus.

Yascha Mounk: Dawn of the Trump era.

The Free Press: How Trump won.

New York: Americans didn’t embrace Trump, they rejected Biden-Harris.

Compact: Harris's Democratic betrayal.

The Liberal Patriot: Where have all the Democrats gone?

Politico: Trump has humiliated his foes.

Washington Monthly: Dem ‘Blue Wall’ turned to rubble.

The Guardian: A peaceful but determined resistance.

Read more:

Takeaways from Trump’s victory.
Trump’s victory likely means curtains for criminal prosecutions.
Jack Smith weighs how to wind down special counsel investigation.
Cheney: Citizens, courts, media are now ‘guardrails of democracy.’
Axelrod: Racism, sexism partly to blame for Harris defeat.

Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

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Trump, Senate GOP majorities send markets soaring.
Global leaders congratulate Trump, but his victory looks set to roil the world again.
Trump victory ignites crypto frenzy that sends Bitcoin to record high.

NEW THIS AFTERNOON

GOP looks to pad Senate majority, hang onto House

Will Republicans have unified control of the government?

The GOP has a lock on the Senate, with the only question being how big their majority will be.

At the moment, Republicans have a 52 to 45 advantage, with races still needing to be called in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
It appears unlikely that Republicans will sweep the remaining seats, so the final GOP count will likely be between 53 and 55 seats.
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) trails against Republican David McCormick (Pa.). If McCormick holds on, it would push the GOP to 53 seats.
Democrats hold and advantage in Arizona at the moment, while the race is effectively tied in Nevada.

Dejected Democrats are holding out hope they can win the House, but that’s looking like an increasingly steep climb, with the Cook Political Report finding the GOP as a slight favorite.

Via The Hill's Mike Lillis, Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell: "The neck-and-neck battle for control of the House in the next Congress appears to be shifting in favor of Republicans as results roll in from the most competitive districts a day after voters went to the polls. While the contest for the gavel remains too close to call officially — and dozens of races have yet to be finalized — the momentum was clearly moving with the GOP on Wednesday as more ballots were counted and the battlefield shrunk."

Democrats lost races up and down the ballot in Texas, most notably in the Rio Grande Valley, where Latinos have swung sharply to the right.

Republicans currently hold 210 seats, compared to 194 for Democrats. There are 218 seats needed for the slimmest majority possible.
31 races still need to be called.
Many of the remaining contested races are in California, so Democrats are hoping that a blue shift there can drag them across the finish line.

Read more:

McConnell: Filibuster will stand if GOP holds House, Senate.
Bacon holds on to Nebraska House seat for Republicans.
McBride becomes first openly transgender person elected to Congress.
Republican Ayotte wins New Hampshire governorship.
Democrat Stein defeats scandal-plagued Republican in North Carolina gubernatorial race.

IN OTHER NEWS

State watch: Abortion on the ballot

The issue of abortion fared well on ballot initiatives, despite failing to turn out voters for Vice President Harris.

At least seven states voted to protect abortion access, including four states that will likely break for Trump.

In Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Montana and New York, voters enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution.
The Arizona initiative will overrun the state’s 15-week ban on abortion.
Missouri voted to legalize abortion, overturning a near-complete ban.
Nevada voted for a constitutional amendment to allow for abortions up to 24 weeks.
Abortion access measures failed in three states — Florida, South Dakota and Nebraska.

Voters also decided on several other polarizing social issues:

In Florida, a measure to legalize recreational marijuana fell short of the 60 percent needed to pass.
California voters want to crack down on crime, approving a measure to make some shoplifting and drug offenses felonies.
Paid sick leave initiatives passed in Alaska, Missouri and Nebraska.
The Hill’s Lexi Lonas Cochran reports on the GOP’s struggles on education initiatives despite big wins elsewhere: “From school choice to partisan school board elections, the wins in the higher offices did not translate to the policies President-elect Trump and other conservatives support, with some states overwhelmingly voting against the measures.”